Can we really trust the polls?
Toby Manhire speaks to Murray Campbell of Research Association NZ about the methods behind political polls in Aotearoa, how fairly the media represents those polls and why Curia withdrew from the pollsters’ association.
03 Nov 2026
More about the episode
The opinion polls are coming thick and fast in the final days of the 2026 NZ election campaign. But when two emerge at the same time delivering markedly different results, should we be sceptical about the story they tell? Murray Campbell of The Research Association of New Zealand joins Toby to discuss the varying methods for collecting opinion data, the processes by which that information is weighted, and what the margin of error can and can’t tell us.
Plus: are the media fairly presenting the results, what are the challenges with electorate polls, including Māori seats, what to make of brands like Infrastructure NZ and the Taxpayers’ Union bankrolling polls, and what is the deal with Curia withdrawing from the pollsters’ association?
At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff.
