The latest stats show the overall enrolment rate isn’t looking too shabby, but for 18- to 24-year-olds, the picture is more concerning – and the earliest enrolment deadline in decades is likely to have further negative impact. 

As of June 30, just over 89% of the eligible population was enrolled to vote. That’s higher than the June 30 enrolment figures for the three previous election years.

So, is this… good news? Election day is later this year (November 7, compared to September 23 in 2017, October 17 in 2020 and October 14 in 2023), which means we’ve got more time for enrolment to grow from June 30 than in previous years. Right?

Well… kind of. In 2020 and 2023, voters could enrol right up until and including election day, and that they did – 170,000 in 2020 and 450,000 in 2023 (the latter figure represented around 12% of total enrolled voters). Even in 2017, before election day enrolment was allowed, around 200,000 people enrolled during the advance voting period. This contributed to the final enrolment rate increasing by 6.2 percentage points (2023), 7.2 percentage points (2020) and four percentage points (2017) from that June 30 point.

But this year, thanks to controversial legislative changes brought in by the current government, anyone who enrols after the advance voting period starts – that’s 12 days before election day – will not be able to cast a vote. The final day to enrol is October 25. As the Ministry of Justice regulatory impact statement (RIS) prepared for the proposed changes detailed, it’s difficult to assess how much of an impact this will have on enrolment and voting stats. “It has been over 30 years since the deadline for enrolment was well in advance of election day, and voting trends and volumes have changed substantially since then. This means that no recent comparable data is available to assess the likely impacts… Impacts will depend on voter behaviour and how well the new deadline is communicated.”

But data suggests Māori and young people will be most impacted. According to the RIS, in 2023, 33% of 18- to 19-year-old voters enrolled or updated their details during the voting period, and for Māori voters aged 18 or 19, that rose to 48%. Other demographic data on later enrolments is limited, but the RIS says Pasifika and Asian communities are also likely to be disproportionately affected by the change. (Madeleine Chapman recently drilled down more into the likely impact on Pacific voters here).

The youth enrolment figures are already pretty grim. Looking at the June 30 point in the six election years from 2011 to 2026, there has been a marked decline in the proportion of enrolled 18- to 24-year-olds. This year, it was just 53%, well down from 70% in 2011 and a sizeable drop from the 2023 rate of 60%. Updated figures were released late yesterday afternoon and show that as of last Friday, July 31, the 18-24 rate had risen to 53.9%.

Of course, being enrolled doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll vote – enrolment is compulsory, but voting is not. In 2023, 94.7% of eligible voters were enrolled, but only 78.2% of them actually ticked a box. In 2020, a slightly smaller proportion of eligible voters (94.1%) were enrolled, but a higher proportion (82.2%) of them voted, and in 2017 it was 92.4% and 79.8% respectively. Voter turnout for 18- to 24-year-olds in 2023 was 74.2%.

Enrolment by electorate

Taking the July 31 figures and zeroing in on general electorate area (including those enrolled on the Māori roll), Ōtāhuhu has the lowest proportion of enrolled 18- to 24-year-olds, at 39% (the overall enrolment rate in that electorate is 90.8%). Banks Peninsula, meanwhile, has the highest youth enrolment, with 72.1% of the youngest cohort there enrolled (the overall rate is 94.8%).

As of July 31, the electorate with the highest overall enrolment rate is Tāmaki: 97.4% of eligible voters are enrolled, including just over 67% of those aged between 18 and 24. Wigram has the lowest enrolment rate, at 81.7% (it’s 50.8% for the youngest age bracket).