Election 2026: Here's how the first leaders' debate unfolded

Are you excited? You should be because the stakes are high. Hell, you could even say this debate is do or die. This morning, a new RNZ-Reid Research poll dropped that had the National Party on just 25.9% – its worst result since the disastrous 2020 election. Labour was on 30.6% – better, sure, but hardly cause for celebration, especially as it marked its third consecutive decline.

But wait, there's more: at 6pm, a new 1News Verian poll came out that had National on 29%, a percentage point ahead of Labour on 28% and up a point from the previous week's poll. Needless to say, both major parties polling below 30% doesn't suggest the electorate has great faith in either. Both of today's polls put Opportunity in the kingmaker position; the 1News-Verian had it at a comfortable 7% and the RNZ-Reid Research a touch lower at 5.5%

So basically, a month out from the election, it really is too close to call. And that means tonight's debaters will be keen to gain an edge over, if not comprehensively wipe the floor with, their opponent. As soon as the debate and follow-up press conference are over, our editor-at-large, Toby Manhire, will be racing to his laptop to smash out some scintillating analysis that you'll be able to read on this here website first thing tomorrow morning. So how's he expecting it to play out?

"I'm looking forward to watching from the studio audience," says Manhire. "How it plays to the audience there is, of course, of zero importance to the reception in living rooms, but it's always interesting to see the dynamic IRL, the way the candidates interact with each other and their entourages (usually including a comms adviser and/or a pollster) during the ad breaks. Two polls in one day, pointing to historically low popularity for the two big parties and their leaders, underscore the stakes here, and the questions for both Chris and Chris. Go negative or go positive?  And go big, knowing you've got to land something major before the biggest audience of the campaign, or go careful, for fear of making things worse?"

Q+A host Jack Tame is moderating tonight's debate, his first time doing so, and he'll no doubt be looking forward to putting a few curly questions to Luxon, given the prime minister has avoided his interview requests for the last couple of years.

If you thought it didn't get any better than watching a televised political debate and simultaneously following a live blog about said debate, guess what – it does. The Spinoff has created an all-new leaders' debate bingo card specifically for the 2026 election campaign. If you're that way inclined, you could even turn it into a drinking game. Your call!

Given National's been absolutely hammering Labour over its recently released fiscal plan, I'll be very surprised if "fiscal hole" doesn't get marked off early on in proceedings.

The studio audience is comfortably seated, journalists are in a little room watching on a big telly, and Labour and National supporters are yelling at each other from either side of Hobson Street. Stay tuned for all the action from inside TVNZ.

Christopher Luxon won the coin toss so he gets to go first with his spiel on why you should vote National. He says he's so excited about New Zealand's future – our economy is now growing, the books are back in order and more Kiwis are moving back to New Zealand, he reckons. Crime is down and kids are going to school.

There was a slight stumble as Luxon switched to a more negative mode to urge voters not to put it all at risk by letting Labour win. Nine new taxes gets a mention – mark off that bingo square!

Now it's Hipkins' turn and he's on the cost of living beat. Three more years of National will only make it worse, he says, while he'll fight to keep our costs down – Hipkins mentions Labour's public transport cap, three free doctor visits, and the recently announced cut to student debt, among other policies.

Asked when he felt proudest as a New Zealander, Luxon said it was visiting New Zealand troops in the UK as they trained to join the conflict in Ukraine to "fight for the things we take for granted". Hipkins said it was after the March 15 terrorist attacks, when "New Zealand wrapped its aroha and support around those affected".

Next it's the cost of living, and they start talking over each other. Hipkins says Labour will freeze your petrol taxes, and Luxon cuts in that it's unfunded. There is some back and forth about Labour's fiscal plan, which National says is a "fraud". "Stop saying things that aren’t true – this is why people don’t trust you," says Hipkins.

Luxon's infamous $60 a week grocery shop from the 2023 election is raised by Tame, and Luxon laughs it off – it probably comprised "a box of Frujus, a couple of banans and a kiwifruit". No mention of what flavour Frujus, sadly.

The controversial pay equity changes brought in by Luxon's government prompt some spiky back and forth. Luxon holds his ground, saying "what was not workable or sustainable were the changes that Chris made to the scheme".

Tame now goes hard on Hipkins, saying "you’ve left very little space in your budget for bringing back the pay equity scheme. Why should Kiwis believe you're not going to overspend?"

Hipkins points to Labour's fiscal plan, and Tame syas they went well over that after 2020. Hipkins says well that was Covid (I'm paraphrasing here).

Luxon comes in strongly with some facts and figures about how much that government spent.

Tame asks each leader when they last changed their mind about something that matters. Hipkins points to the capital gains tax: "I absolutely did and I’m happy to own that."

Luxon says he changes his mind when he gets good advice, but he couldn't think of a policy example.

As predicted, Labour's fiscal plan is under scrutiny as the spotlight turns onto health. Hipkins talks about Labour's plan to hire lots more nurses. Luxon says a National government will be hiring 2,200 new nurses in the next year, and says 2,100 extra nurses have been hired since he came to power. Hipkins cuts in with "54!" (Simeon Brown essentially conceded in parliament a few weeks ago that 54 new FTE nurses were hired during the last term.)

Thank the lord, it's an ad break, so a perfect time to mention that Jack Tame keeps saying "let's go to the waaaaalllll" which is basically a big screen showing stuff.

Here in the media room, we're supposed to be seeing what's going on in the ad breaks – trainers coming out with towels to wrap round shoulders and what not – but instead we have a blank screen. Don't worry, I'm kicking up a mild fuss.

Also, just before the ad break Hipkins committed to reinstating the smokefree 2025 plan.

It's the tax election, in case you haven't heard, so Tame is asking the leaders about it.

Asked if he can guarantee taxes won't go up under a government led by him, Hipkins says, "There are always adjustments to taxes and levies, I'm not saying we're not going to be doing it, but we're not increasing fuel taxes." He also guaranteed that GST will not go up.

Tame points out that Hipkins mocked Luxon when he promised a free trade deal with India in his first term, but lo and behold, he got it done. Hipkins conceded: "It's a good deal and we do support it." Luxon said "I'm proud of that deal," and talked about kiwifruit. It's a pity kiwifruit is not a square on the bingo card.

Tame asks both leaders this question and neither will answer it. “Ultimately they are and I’m not going to say that they shouldn’t be proud of their achievements," says Hipkins. "I believe in equality of opportunity," says Luxon. Righto then.

Should fireworks be banned? Both say no.

Should it be the government's responsibility to support the arts? Both say yes.

Should every artist who comes to New Zealand have to have a New Zealand opening act? Hipkins says yes, Luxon says no.

Have you pulled a sickie? Hipkins hesitates... "not lately". Luxon says no.

Should Air New Zealand's top priority be making money or connecting New Zealanders? Both say the latter.

All Blacks winning the World Cup or Warriors winning the premiership? Hipkins says "Up the Wahs", Luxon says "Go the All Blacks".

Do you have solar panels? Hipkins says yes, Luxon no.

What's a skill you'd like to learn? Both say learn te reo Māori.

Should parents be able to take their kids out of school for a family holiday? Hipkins says "I'd prefer they didn't". Luxon says no.

Hipkins will keep the ban on phones in schools, and would reinstate free, locally produced school lunches. He agrees it will cost more, but says it's funded. Luxon disagrees, then they argue about how much each spent on building classrooms.

Hipkins says he'll keep the gang patch ban. Luxon says he'll put a thousand more gang members in prison (it's not clear how). They argue about crime and Hipkins says "you're sounding a bit shrill there".

Hipkins says we're drifting further apart. "Political leaders have a responsibility to help New Zealanders find common ground, to disagree agreeably," he reckons.

"I agree with Chris," says Luxon – mark off that bingo square! But it's not a love fest: he then points to Hipkins following a "co-governance agenda" as increasing that polarisation.

Asked if race was a factor in health outcomes, Luxon says "need is a factor". Hipkins cites various grim health stats for Māori and says "yes, race is a factor".

Asked about the MAPAS scheme for Māori and Pasifika doctors, Luxon says he hasn't read the review but he'll get right on to that next term. Hipkins says he thinks the scheme works.

Things get fiery when they move on to Winston Peters' infamous remarks – which Luxon says were racist, and that he called them out. Hipkins is visibly pissed off – "you did nothing about it". He says if a minister said something like that in his cabinet, they would be sacked. Luxon refers to poorly behaving ministers in Hipkins' cabinet (Kiri Allan, Stuart Nash), and they start arguing. Tame waves at them to get their attention – then we cut to an ad break.

"Do you believe AI could be an existential risk?" asks Tame. “There are some serious dangers and we need to work with other like-minded countries to make sure we’ve got the regulatory frameworks in place," says Luxon.

Hipkins says yes it is an existential risk. "We need to be eyes wide open to the fact that there are real risks... the creative sector is seeing its intellectual property swallowed up. We've got to protect copyright, intellectual property, privacy, we've got to set standards. There's a real need for more government leadership."

Luxon swims in the sea a lot, but can't remember when he last swam in a river. Hipkins swam in the Hutt River last summer. Hutt local and The Spinoff's political reporter Lyric Waiwiri-Smith says "ew".

Asked the above question, Luxon says "embracing renewable energy". Hipkins says cancelling the Luxon government's LNG import facility plan and investing that money into renewable energy.

Thankfully, neither big-upped their own recycling efforts as they did in 2023.

Back in July he did so in a seemingly off-the-cuff manner, so Tame finished the debate tonight by double checking. Luxon tried to dodge the question by saying, "I’ve actually delivered strong and stable government," so Tame tried again. "Will you be open to talking to them?" he asks. "We've ruled them out," says Luxon. Tame double checks: "Will you be open to talking to them?" he asks. "We've ruled them out," says Luxon. Tame again: "Are you 100% ruling out Opportunity?" Luxon: "I've been crystal clear about Opportunity... the big opportunity is to party vote National."

Well that clears that up then. Remember, both polls released today had Opportunity in the kingmaker role: neither major party could form a government without them.

We're wrapping up these live updates with the final verdict from the live studio audience of undecided voters. Who do they reckon won the debate? Hipkins had the edge with 49% support, while Luxon trailed on 24%, but even more said dunno: 27% were undecided.

What about you guys, following along at home? The Spinoff's poll will stay open until 9.30 but right now, 90% reckon Hipkins has taken it, with just 3% backing Luxon, and 7% calling a draw.

That concludes our live updates for this evening – thanks for joining us and be sure to check out Toby Manhire's analysis bright and early tomorrow morning, as well as Henry Oliver's Bulletin wrapping up all the debate coverage.