The fiscal holes of New Zealand politics, ranked

Because it's not an election without a fiscal hole allegation or two – or 40.

When the Labour Party released its fiscal plan this week, National instantly hit back. “There's $8.5 billion … unfunded,” National Party leader Christopher Luxon told RNZ. “There’s a real hole there.” 

The press releases came thick and fast. “Labour’s transport plan has a $3.2bn hole,” said Chris Bishop. “Another $2.2bn hole in Labour’s fiscal plan,” said Nicola Willis. 

Even before the plan had been released, National was finding holes. “You can’t afford an $18bn hole,” Luxon told voters as he launched National’s campaign in late September.

Would this really be an election without an allegation or two – or 40 – of a fiscal hole?

Since Stephen Joyce first lobbed an $11.7bn-sized fiscal hole allegation at Grant Robertson in 2017, the term has been used “to describe any situation where maybe things don't quite add up”, the journalist Marc Daalder told The Detail a couple of years ago.

Any sign of a financial gap, shortfall or oversight in a political party’s budgeting maths now inevitably leads to one place: allegations of a fiscal hole (not to be confused with a fiscal cliff, best used to describe a looming fiscal hole).

Big holes, small holes, fake holes, famous holes, holes that appear then disappear like a mirage in the desert, and Nicola Willis’s obsession with the size of Robertson’s hole – every election since 2017 has been tarnished by fiscal hole allegations. 

Overused? Sure. Overworked? Probably. Over it? No way. This election still has four weeks to go and it’s unlikely we’ve fallen into our final fiscal hole. 

So, before Willis forgets to use the word “fiscal” again, here are our favourite holes…

6) A 2026 fiscal hole could create a literal hole

This election has seen fiscal hole claims fired back and forth over pay equity, fuel tax, public transport and health. The term already risks overexposure. “Here we go again,” sighed the economist Cameron Bagrie to RNZ earlier this week. 

Before Bagrie curled up to take a nap in a fiscal hole, he had a warning: this time, any fiscal holes in roading budgets could create real-life holes (he means pot holes) on New Zealand’s ancient roads. Gah.

5) The 2023 Spider-Man meme of fiscal holes

In 2023, fiscal hole allegations reached a crescendo. National alleged Labour had a $250 million fiscal hole in its plan to remove GST from fruit and vegetables. Labour hit back, alleging National had created a $2.4-$4.8bn roading fiscal hole. Then, NZ First and Act accused Labour of shortfalls. 

Not to be outdone, the CTU accused National of a $3.3-$5.2bn tax and spending fiscal hole. 

If the 2023 election was a boat, it would have as many holes as that one in The Odyssey being smashed up by giant armoured soldiers, but would look nowhere near as cool. 

4) Paul Goldsmith’s $4.3bn fiscal hole of 2020

During the 2020 election campaign, National’s finance party spokesperson Paul Goldsmith used errant math (May’s Budget, not September’s Prefu figures) to fall into a $4.3bn fiscal hole of his own making.

A clearly irritated Goldsmith told media: ”We made an error. I own it. This is an irritating mistake. We missed it … We make mistakes. These things happen. They’re irritating. Look, it’s irritating. It happened.” 

At a subsequent press conference, National Party leader Judith Collins was also irritated when she was asked about Goldsmith’s shortfall nine separate times. 

3) 2020: Labour’s $10bn fiscal hole 

Paul Goldsmith bounced back out of that fiscal hole with a fiscal hole claim of his own, believing there was a "deliberate omission ... to the tune of more than $10bn" in two key Labour policies: renewable energy and light rail. Jacinda Ardern called the claims “absolutely ridiculous and desperate".

2) Nicola Willis sizing up Grant Robertson’s hole

After a dizzying series of fiscal hole accusations across the 2023 election campaign, things culminated in something no one saw coming. In parliament, National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis stammered, “How big is his hole?” to a guffawing Grant Robertson, who replied, “That is not in the public interest, I can assure you.”

Willis was nominated for Massey University’s quote of the year award, but lost to Cyclone Gabrielle’s “Nah, we’re just three Māori boys” heroes.

1) Stephen Joyce finds an $11.7bn fiscal hole. Or does he?

It’s the debut, the OG, the moment that kicked off this hole (sorry) trend. In 2017, National’s finance minister Stephen Joyce accused Labour’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson of something truly unique: “The Labour Party has an $11.7bn hole in its fiscal plan that blows its debt out and breaks its own budget responsibility pledge.”

The claim was roundly rejected by Robertson and Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern, and it was mostly debunked by economists and commentators. In the 2018 book Stardust and Substance, Ardern called this “non-existent” hole the election’s low point. “I understand why National wanted to go in this direction – this is politics and historically some centre-left parties have been seen as weak on the economy.”

But even Ardern admits the term stuck for a reason. “I do think the references made around tax raised doubts in people’s minds, perhaps just enough to make some of those who may have considered a change of government retreat.” 

She included a warning worth heeding by any politician going forward: fiscal holes are here to stay. “Ultimately,” Ardern writes, “they’re the things we always have to be prepared for.”