The minor party leaders proved they're not just along for the ride, they're in the driver's seat

The five party leaders who battled it out last night know they've gone from sideshow to main act. Now they just need voters to anoint one of them the Chrismaker.

While the Chris v Chris headline act plays to dwindling fanfare, New Zealand politics is at an inflection point. Thirty years since our first MMP election and we’re now at the dog-end of the major parties' political supremacy, more than ever depending on the powers of their traditionally smaller friends. The battle between the minor parties is no longer just a sideshow; it’s the whole contest.

On Tuesday night, our kingmakers – or, perhaps more suitably, Chrismakers – faced off for the second time this election cycle. Only two weeks ago they – Act’s David Seymour, Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick, NZ First’s Winston Peters, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi and Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong – were last together bickering. No worries if you missed that one: the jankiness of Stuff/The Press’s set made that hum-drum debate skippable viewing.

This time around, the sophistication of LED-lit lecterns and swinging cameras seemed to put more of a pep in the politicos' steps. None more so than Wong, who wilted like a hothouse flower at the first face-off. This time around, she found her voice – just in time for the latest 1News-Verian poll to place Opportunity in the position of being central to forming the next government, at 8%.

Some are already reading the writing on the wall. For Swarbrick, “it’s becoming clear” the party will need to open its heart to Opportunity. Waititi was more reticent, saying he’d need to see harder treaty policy from the party – though, by his own admission after the debate, no party’s treaty-adjacent policies go hard enough by Te Pāti Māori’s standards.

The others held their ground. Both Seymour and Peters would prefer to enter parliament with their current coalition, but with bigger numbers in their respective caucuses. A side note on Peters, the supposed winner of the last kingmakers' debate: the man seemed more exhausted than ever. It couldn’t have helped to have Wong poking at his sides.

Host Tova O’Brien offered a charcuterie board of policies up for debate, and the tensest moment came while the spotlight was on the Greens. The party prides itself on progressivism, but with Opportunity proposing free public transport for all New Zealanders, has Wong “out-Greened the Greens?”

The question seemed to catch Swarbrick by surprise. Earlier in the debate, Wong hinted she could be willing to drop her party’s land value tax in favour of Labour’s capital gains tax. Swarbrick, on the other hand, refused to budge on whether she’d drop her wealth tax – that conversation was for the negotiating table, not a public debate.

This is where Opportunity has the biggest, well, opportunity, to shine for the undecided viewers. While the Greens, like every party on that stage, are to some extent bound to very specific supporter bases, Opportunity has the blessing of wriggle room. And the increasingly captivating point that Luxon may just need another handbrake should he come back into power.

“Imagine,” Wong quipped, “how many of those most egregious things that have happened in the last three years the Greens could have stopped if they were willing to work with National." To her credit, Swarbrick didn’t miss a beat. “And allow vulnerable people to be punched down on?”

Ah, the beautiful tension of MMP. To be the Chrismaker in this election, you don’t necessarily need to be the most ideologically principled person in the room. You just need to be the party holding the keys to the clubhouse, the one that Chris – and his mates – can’t govern without. For all that Peters preaches about the importance of experience, it seems a strong portion of the country is more than ready to welcome a new pair of hands. Waititi captured the public mood well with this remark: “If you look at the prime minister now, anyone can do it.”

Behind the facade, these leaders are already managing cross-party relations with enough forced grace. During the breaks, Seymour and Waititi exchanged a handshake and a laugh. Wong and Swarbrick made pleasant conversation while the latter fanned herself under the heat of the set lights. And Peters, ever the phantom of parliament, watched it play out from the wings.