Where supporters come from, the government they want, and how a tiny sliver could completely change the election result.
The National Party has ruled out any post-election deal with the Opportunity Party – whether coalition or confidence-and-supply – with Christopher Luxon making what appeared to be a “captain’s call” on the fly at his post-cabinet press conference on Monday afternoon, declaring that he couldn’t work with “people who want to increase taxes”.
It remains to be seen what that announcement does, if anything, to the backing for the party, which at present hovers just under the 5% threshold.
But here’s what we do know about the party’s support, based on available recent polling.
The tipping point
What a difference a third of 1% makes. Flow the latest polling result from RNZ/Reid into an imagined parliament and the existing National-led coalition would be returned to power, just, winning 61 of 121 seats.
If you top up the Opportunity vote by 0.3 percentage points, however, the National-NZF-Act trio could no longer command a majority. The four other parties – Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity – could get across the line, even if such a tapestry would be far from straightforward.
Toggle below to see how Opportunity hitting the threshold tips the balance. Opportunity winning a seat – leader Qiulae Wong is targeting Mt Albert – would mean that 4.7% would similarly change the outcome, bringing them five seats.
(These calculations are based on TPM retaining the four seats it currently holds.)
No rogue
It’s not just the RNZ/Reid poll that presents such a delicate balance; the same scenario would play out, for example, in the latest Talbot Mills poll.
Here’s how Opportunity fares across the last five reported polls.
Where do Opportunity votes come from?
The most recent Talbot Mills poll for clients, viewed by The Spinoff, includes some intriguing data on the Opportunity vote. Across the last two surveys, those who selected Opportunity were asked which party they’d voted for in 2023. National was first, followed by TOP, Labour and NZ First.
What kind of government do Opportunity-ists want?
The RNZ-Reid poll asked those who plumped for Opportunity which flavour of government they’d prefer to see, National-led or Labour-led. Labour was comfortably ahead here.
Across all those surveyed by Reid Research, 43.4% chose Labour as the party they’d like to see leading a government, ahead of 37.7% for National-led.
Talbot Mills asked the same question of Opportunity supporters about red vs blue led governments. Here the gap was wider.
Rival kingmakers
Opportunity has pitched itself as an alternative to NZ First in the role of post-election decision-maker.
Talbot Mills asked respondents which of the two would-be kingmakers they preferred to hold the balance of power. Here the MMP stalwart came out ahead.
Interestingly, among Labour voters, the answer to the question above was a tie, with 35% preferring NZ First held the balance of power and 35% choosing Opportunity.
