At its campaign launch, the party said it was the only way to both grow Māori representation in parliament and help defeat the government, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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Te Pāti Māori launched its 2026 election campaign at Te Poho o Rāwiri Marae in Gisborne on Sunday with a direct request: give the party the candidate vote in the Māori electorates, and give the party vote to whichever opposition party a voter prefers, as reported by RNZ’s Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira. Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said the party trusted supporters with the party vote, while her other co-leader Rawiri Waititi argued voters backing rival candidates already guaranteed a seat via their party’s list effectively waste their electorate vote.
The Herald’s Julia Gabel reported that the party framed it as a deliberate push to bring the government “to its knees,” pointing to its success in last year’s Tāmaki Makaurau by-election – where Labour’s Peeni Henare conceded the race once voters understood a vote for Oriini Kaipara wouldn’t cost them Henare either, since he was already assured a seat via Labour’s list – as proof of concept. The stakes are high: recent polls suggesting some combination of left-leaning parties could form a government rely on Te Pāti Māori holding all six of its current Māori seats.
The overhang
This electorate-seat focus connects to a mechanism The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire explored last month: MMP’s overhang rule. If Te Pāti Māori wins more electorates than its party vote share would normally entitle it to, those extra MPs don’t get taken away – they expand parliament beyond 120 seats.
Political scientist Lara Greaves told Manhire that some had floated encouraging supporters to split their vote – Te Pāti Māori for the electorate, Labour for the party vote – potentially generating several extra left-leaning MPs via overhang. But she warned the tactic carries real risk in the public’s view of the legitimacy of our electoral system.
Selling unity after a difficult year
The Gisborne launch was also an attempt to move past a difficult year, as The Spinoff’s Liam Rātana detailed earlier this month. The expulsion of MPs Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris cost the party two of its six seats in practice, with Kapa-Kingi now running a breakaway party and Ferris standing as an independent. President John Tamihere has faced ongoing credibility challenges, including a High Court ruling against him and accusations of running the party “like a dictatorship.”
Rātana noted the party is leaning on proven MPs Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and Oriini Kaipara while rolling out policy – a Māori education authority, binding Waitangi Tribunal recommendations – to shift focus back to substance. But none of it matters, he argued, unless the party can actually reach government, and its only realistic partners remain Labour and the Greens.
Hipkins says it’s ‘unlikely’ there’d be senior government roles for Te Pāti Māori
That tension increased when Labour leader Chris Hipkins said senior government roles for Te Pāti Māori were “unlikely” under a Labour-led coalition, even while calling the party’s door open in principle, as reported by the Herald’s Adam Pearse & Julia Gabel last week. The comment came in a statement issued after confusion over an earlier press conference, and notably arrived alongside much warmer language for Opportunity, whose support had just climbed to 8%.
In response, Ngarewa-Packer told the Herald the party would “have that conversation” after the election, not before, perhaps giving Labour a slight nudge about how important the party’s seats are to the forming of any potential left-leaning government.
