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Scene from the Spinoff Christmas party. Photo: Getty
Scene from the Spinoff Christmas party. Photo: Getty

OPINIONPoliticsJanuary 1, 2021

12 wild predictions for the political year 2021 AD

Scene from the Spinoff Christmas party. Photo: Getty
Scene from the Spinoff Christmas party. Photo: Getty

Every year in our summer politics review we encourage our esteemed commentators to throw all caution to the wind and make a wild prediction. Most will be gloriously off-beam. But usually at least one is on the money …

Read more from our political year in review here.

Contrary to expectations, the huge new intake of Act MPs will turn out to be relatively normal politicians. 

– Alex Braae

Someone will lash themselves to the increasing (justified) resentment of those aged under 35, angry at being locked out of the kind of prosperity their parents enjoy and inheriting entrenched problems those same ‘grown ups’ have wilfully ignored, and start a new political party. (This won’t really happen but it should.)

– Linda Clark

After a year like 2020, I simply can’t imagine 2021 – except that when you hit rock bottom, things have to get better and while we are on track for a large carbon intensive blow out in world wide growth, the return of a more multilateral US administration bodes well for calmer more measured world politics – I hope.

– Bronwyn Hayward

Housing will continue to be unaffordable.

– Liam Hehir

A Labour government blessed with a four-seat majority in the House of Representatives and facing unprecedented societal and ecological challenges will choose to spend its time on slow and incremental changes designed to ensure it retains sufficient soft middle New Zealand support to win the 2023 election. Crazy, huh?

– Andrew Geddis

I don’t want anything wild to happen in 2021, so I’m going to go for something boring: at least one ACT MP resigns in scandal.

– Lara Greaves

Judith Collins does a tight 10 at a comedy open mic night.

– Leonie Hayden

Joe Biden says he will re-join TPP!

– Stephen Jacobi

After the dumpster fire that was 2020 I don’t want to jinx it for 2021.

– Annabelle Lee-Mather


– Danyl Mclauchlan

The government will get sued.

– Laura O’Connell Rapira

Winston Peters for governor general.

– Trish Sherson

Keep going!