Is the global conference more than just a gabfest, and what is it doing in Azerbaijan?
What is Cop and why is it 29?
Cop is the “conference of the parties” – that is, the 197 parties that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change born out of the “earth summit” of 1992. Every year representatives of those countries gather to check in, murmur about how things seem to be getting warmer and there has been some crazy weather lately. And, hopefully, bolster efforts against climate change. We’re up to instalment number 29.
Why Baku?
It was the turn this time of an east European country and Russia rejected any thought of a European Union country, so the capital of Azerbaijan it is. The gathering began last night and continues until Friday November 22.
What is on the Cop29 agenda?
The emphasis in Baku is finance, with delegates tasked with working out how to put into practice promises to support poor countries in transitioning away from fossil fuels and support the costs of adaptation, as part of a “collective and quantified goal on climate finance”. That will take an injection of as much as a trillion dollars a month – around 10 times what is currently committed.
In the past, the money hasn’t matched the mouth. The message from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) is: “At Cop29, we need to see tangible progress on financing for developing nations, which is essential for ensuring the most vulnerable are not left behind.”
Opening the summit last night, the Cop29 president-designate, Mukhtar Babayev, said: “Colleagues, we are on a road to ruin. But these are not future problems. Climate change is already here. Whether you see them or not, people are suffering in the shadows. They are dying in the dark and they need more than compassion, more than prayers and paperwork. They are crying out for leadership and action … Cop29 is a moment of truth for the Paris Agreement. It will test our commitment to the multilateral climate system. We must now demonstrate that we are prepared to meet the goals we have set ourselves.”
What is the current climate state of play?
A UNEP report last year concluded that the planet on its present trajectory is heading for a “debilitating” temperature increase of 2.6C-3.1C before the end of the century. The same report determined that emissions as a whole had to be cut by 42% by 2030 to keep warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, one of the cornerstone goals of the Paris Agreement.
Paris?
At Cop21 in Paris nine years ago a historic deal was struck in which countries would make commitments (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) that would collectively forge a path to capping warming at 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
When can we expect new NDCs?
Countries are required to submit revised NDCs by February 2025, but some are expected to seize the moment and announce their commitments in Baku.
Will Trump be there?
He won’t be there. He’s repeatedly called climate science a “hoax”. Also, he’s not the president yet. Biden won’t be there either.
Yet Trump will be there, won’t he?
Fine, yes, OK, he’ll very much be there in the spirit, wafting around the stadium venue in Baku like psychic tear gas. Last time he was president, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement; the man called “a wrecking ball” for global climate by critics is expected to do it again next year.
Is Christopher Luxon Baku-bound?
No. But neither of the last two prime ministers, Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins, attended a Cop. John Key was the last to do so. He went to Paris in 2015
The climate change minister, Simon Watts, will be there. He arrives on Saturday, is leading negotiations on carbon markets alongside his Singaporean counterpart, and co-chairing the annual Pacific ministers roundtable, who are pushing to confirm that COP31 will be hosted by Australia.
What else is on Pacific ministers’ minds?
A fair bit. The region is in many ways the frontline of climate change. “If we are not talking about grassroots change then there is no point in us coming to Cop,”says Sivendra Michael, Fiji’s permanent secretary for climate change.
The summit will also see the launch of the largest ever Pacific climate adaptation study, the Pacific Ocean Climate Crisis Assessment, the fruit of a three-year collaboration among more than 100 academics and experts.
Is it more than just a talkfest?
There is a lot of talking, and a little bit of fest, but the summits have achieved plenty of meaningful things. While the optimism of Paris was never fully realised, that event is seen by many as a watershed in curbing rates of emission.
Are protests expected?
They’re beginning already. There are demonstrations urging tougher climate action, but also protesting the host, given that Azerbaijan is essentially a petro-state, and boasts a lamentable human rights record.
Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 has sparked criticism from civil society groups due to its petro-state status and poor human rights record. Transparency International last week warned that Azerbaijan could “co-opt” the event “as a tool for greenwashing”.