She needs all the help she can get.

Clearly, it’s drawing a long bow. And, sure, that bow may well have the words New Zealand Link to Big Global News scrawled earnestly upon it. But the bones are there. Why, at least, wouldn’t the Kamala Harris campaign cast an eager eye over the political story of New Zealand, 2017: an underestimated deputy steps up with humility at the 11th hour, redraws the billboards, injects a burst of fresh energy into what had been a deflating campaign pitting ageing fellows against one another, and seizes back that elixir of political campaigning: momentum. 

Harris, a comfortable favourite for the Democratic candidacy after Joe Biden pulled out of the race this morning, undoubtedly has a hill to climb if she is to run close Donald Trump and his bandaged ear. She could use anything that looks like a role model. When Jacinda Ardern chucked it in at the start of last year, the vice-president paid tribute to “a forward-looking, global leader who has inspired millions around the world”.

So who’s to say she won’t draw some of that inspiration herself? After all, today Harris’s Twitter (X) page switched slogan from “Together we can finish the job” to “Let’s Win This”.

Apologies to Andrew Little and Bill English

Right off the bat: some heaving caveats. “The mechanics of running an election and standing for election in the United States, with respect, are very, very different to New Zealand,” cautioned the sagacious Simon Marks when Corin Dann threw the Ardern comparison at him early this morning on RNZ. 

In scale and structure, it is indeed a different world, and Ardern in 2017 was deputy leader of the opposition; Harris is 2iC to the incumbent. Stand down, Andrew Little’s lawyers: obviously, in 2017, when you stood down to make way for your deputy you were positively spritely compared with the Joe Biden of recent times. 

And stand down, Bill English’s lawyers: obviously, as National leader and prime minister in 2017, you were not remotely the vainglorious, megalomaniac, riot-inciting figure of Trump, who could only maintain the new “unity” tone for 15 minutes before lurching off the teleprompter and resuming the rambling invective that has served him so well. (His typically gracious response to Biden’s withdrawal this morning: “Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement.”)

English’s great affront to taste and decorum, by contrast: putting spaghetti on pizza.

The ‘anti-Trump’

Supporters of Harris point to her successful background as a prosecutor – she has proved herself tough on crime, and in her opponent faces not just a convicted criminal but someone accused of seemingly countless other felonies. She is, in effect, the “anti-Trump”, a label, as it happens, that was assigned to Jacinda Ardern by the leading geopolitical periodical Vogue shortly after she took office.

Ardern was widely cast as a kind of antithesis to the Maga man, following a first encounter at an Apec summit, at which Trump reportedly mistook the New Zealand prime minister for Justin Trudeau’s wife. When Trump suggested “this lady [Ardern] caused a lot of upset in her country” after becoming PM, she retorted, “you know, no one marched when I was elected,” with a nod at the demonstrations around the world that greeted the 2016 presidential race outcome. 

Message and messenger

When Andrew Little digested a series of disastrous polls seven weeks out from the 2017 election and decided to make way for his deputy, the slogan changed – from “A Fresh Approach” to “Let’s Do This” – but the manifesto didn’t. The surge in polling, the wave of “Jacindamania”, suggested the issue had not been with the message, but with the messenger.

Something similar is at play in the US. A YouGov poll a few weeks ago asked Americans about a series of policies, without attaching them to the candidates who propose them. They found that 27 of 28 Biden policies were supported by more people than oppose them. Of Trump policies, only nine of 28 won net positive backing. 

The Harris camp will be hoping that she can articulate those positions more effectively, persuade voters where Biden has struggled of the economic achievements of the current presidency, and get people tuned in on the substance. 

Gun control 

Among the most popular of Biden’s policies is instituting universal gun background checks. Alongside issues relating to outer space, discussions between Ardern and Harris a couple of years back covered “efforts to combat hate, extremism, and gun violence”, according to the vice president.

Harris could do worse than seek to channel some of the energy of the post-March-15 Ardern gun control push.

Women’s rights

Another area where Harris has an advantage over Biden is on abortion. Trump has sought to soften his position on Roe v Wade recently, insisting that he simply wants states to be able to determine their own positions on abortion, a stance made trickier by his appointment of the fiercely anti-abortion JD Vance as running mate. Harris has been an effective campaigner on reproductive rights and is seen as having much greater cut-through on the issue than Biden. 

It wouldn’t hurt, either, if she could seal a media moment in which she lambasts with a pointed finger a male presenter’s gendered remarks as “totally unacceptable”.

Up a gear 

Harris has a mixed record as a communicator. Critics can point to numerous examples of her flubbing her lines or struggling to get a point across. She has a patchy record as a campaigner, too. And her performance as VP has hardly been stellar – not helped by getting assigned the task of overseeing migration issues at the southern border. The challenge will be to step up in the coming days and weeks and into the Democratic National Convention, when suddenly people are paying attention.

Almost immediately after Ardern was made opposition leader by her fellow Labour MPs, she chalked up a win, in a startlingly assured, confident press conference that made people sit up and take notice. Can Harris ace her first major media test, and avoid the temptation of a softball interview?

Play up the generational thing

At 59 years old, Harris can hardly parrot Ardern’s claim to being “youth adjacent”, but elections are all about contrasts, and she is a spring chicken when assessed against the Trump and Biden Show. Ardern promised to “talk directly to a new generation of voters” – if Harris has any hope, she needs to win over that new generation.

Harris could also take a leaf out of Ardern’s “relentlessly positive” book. It won’t be easy, given she’ll inevitably mount a campaign centred on critiquing Trump, but could it be that after years of malaise people are craving a bit of optimism?

One more thing

It is true that Jacinda Ardern became prime minister after the 2017 election. She did not, however, lead her party to the highest number of votes. In fact, Bill English’s National secured 44.5% of all votes, well ahead of Labour on 36.9%. 

The American electoral college system means, as Trump reminded us in 2016, you don’t need to win the popular vote to win the White House. It’s highly unlikely Harris could win without it. And, bafflingly, there is no role for Winston Peters in the American system. 

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