Three smiling women are shown in separate cut-out shapes against a textured background, one wearing glasses and black, one in red, and one in white, all looking at the camera.
National’s Melissa Lee and Labour’s Helen White are neck in neck, with Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong trailing behind in our Mt Albert poll. (Image: Tina Tiller/The Spinoff)

Politicsabout 12 hours ago

Opportunity knocked: Qiulae Wong trails in fourth in Mt Albert poll

Three smiling women are shown in separate cut-out shapes against a textured background, one wearing glasses and black, one in red, and one in white, all looking at the camera.
National’s Melissa Lee and Labour’s Helen White are neck in neck, with Opportunity’s Qiulae Wong trailing behind in our Mt Albert poll. (Image: Tina Tiller/The Spinoff)

On these numbers, the party must now hit the 5% party vote threshold to make it into parliament. 

Despite talk of the Opportunity Party shaking up the election, its leader, Qiulae Wong, is streets behind the bigger parties in Auckland’s Mt Albert, according to a new poll for The Spinoff.

The Curia poll of 400 voters shows 10% would have given their candidate vote to Wong if an election was held the day before polling.

She trails well behind Labour’s Helen White and National’s Melissa Lee, who are lining up for another neck-and-neck finish to replicate the 2023 race, which saw White retain the traditional Labour seat by only 18 votes.

The poll has White on 33% and Lee on 32%. At numbers 37 and 30 respectively on their party lists, both will know they need to win the seat to remain in parliament.

Bar chart titled “Mt Albert candidate vote” shows candidates’ vote percentages: White (38%), Lee (32%), Menéndez March (14%), Wong (10%), others under 5%. Party logos shown below candidate names.
It’s neck and neck. This result excludes voters who were unsure.

It is the first time the hotly contested electorate has been polled in 2026, and the results come as The Spinoff kicks off The Great Mt Albert Debate (watch the livestream now).

The Greens’ Ricardo Menéndez March is on 14%, which is down from the 2023 election result where he took 23.7% of the candidate vote. Of those who said they had voted for Menéndez March in the last election but will make a different decision this time, votes were roughly shared between Wong, Lee and White.  

A campaign billboard for the Green Party featuring Ricardo Menéndez March, smiling and standing outdoors. The text reads “Party Vote Green” and “Mt Albert.”.

NZ First’s Sheldon Eden-Whaitiri sits on 5% and Act’s Alex Price is on 3%. Of the total sample, 6% said they were undecided. 

Opportunity is gunning for the party vote, trying to reach the 5% threshold that would see the party make it into parliament for the first time. If it fails to hit that mark, its next best shot is for Wong to win Mt Albert. 

That backstop position now looks a daunting hill to climb, but there is still more than five weeks of campaigning to go, including televised debates, and the party may take solace in the result from another poll question. Asked if they would like to see Opportunity in parliament, 51% of voters said they would, 29% said they wouldn’t and 20% were unsure. 

Although Wong has quickly built a profile and pushed the party’s polling to new heights since taking the Opportunity leadership in November 2025, she still doesn’t have the level of name recognition enjoyed by White and Lee. Asked if they could name Opportunity’s Mt Albert candidate, 31% of voters could do so correctly, while 60% could name White, 59% could name Lee and 44% could name Menéndez March.

Bar chart showing Mt Albert party vote: National 32%, Labour 32%, Green 19%, Opportunities 6%, NZ First 6%, ACT 3%, Māori 2%, Other 0%. Polling by Curia. Party logos shown at the bottom.
Neck and neck in the party vote too. This result excludes voters who were unsure.

The poll shows the party vote in Mt Albert is looking similar to national polls for National and Labour, who are both on 32%, and the Greens, who are on 19%. Opportunity is above the threshold at 6%, NZ First also sits at 6%, and Act is on 3%. 

The electorate, which is home to four train stations on the east-west line, is all about the City Rail Link’s opening, with 76% of voters saying they were positive or very positive about the impact it would have on their lives, while 17% thought it would have no impact. 

Bar chart showing public opinion on the City Rail Link: 44% Positive, 29% Very positive, 17% None, 3% Negative, 2% Unsure, 1% Very negative. Source: Curia poll.

Housing intensification in the area (a development at the site of the former Carrington hospital is expected to add homes for 12,000 people), which has sparked some concern about pressure on schools, doesn’t seem to be weighing on the majority of the electorate, with 47% supportive or strongly supportive of intensification and 23% neutral. Of those surveyed, 25% opposed or strongly opposed intensification, while 5% were unsure. 

Asked what issue would most affect their vote, the cost of living topped concerns, at 34%, the economy was next, at 12%, and health came in third at 11%. Employment was the next most important issue, at 7%, and the environment was at 6%.

Mt Albert has been the seat of two Labour prime ministers – Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark – and in 1954 was contested by National’s Robert Muldoon, who would go on to become prime minister in 1975. David Shearer, a former Labour leader, has also been the MP for Mt Albert. 

Polling was conducted from September 21-28 and the margin of error is 4.9%.

A note: The Spinoff really wanted to poll Mt Albert. We reckon it’s a key seat to watch this election, and as residents in the electorate, we’re super . Some months ago, we spoke to a range of polling companies about what we wanted and when and it was Curia who could deliver all the elements. Curia has proven an accurate polling company over many years, it follows the ESOMAR/ICC Code of Practice and the NZ Political Polling Code, and polls for a number of organisations, including National, and most recently, Whakaata Māori. There is no Taxpayers’ Union involvement in this poll. 

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