The Black Ferns have now sold out Eden Park twice in two months. Duncan Greive asks what will NZ Rugby do with its new smash hit rugby product?

For years the argument has been made with monotonous regularity – that women’s sport cannot justify the salaries and investment that men’s commands because it simply isn’t as popular. It’s done with a highly patronising tone, typified by this Mike Hosking opinion column, published by the Herald in 2018.

“Men’s rugby has a number around it. Broadcast rights, ticket sales, tournament appearance fees, marketing, branding, advertising and so on. The All Blacks, or professional male athletes if you include super rugby and local level contests, bring in a number… Women do the same, but the number isn’t the same nor is it anywhere close. So their pay reflects that, and isn’t that fair?”

The very same commentators who shrug and point at business fundamentals conveniently ignore that a crucial driver of business is investment. That when one business unit is near its maximum plausible scale, wrapping money and strategy and your special industry knowledge into another is often the most effective path to achieving your goals.

For many years NZ Rugby has been very comfortable investing in the men’s game – creating Super Rugby and making the marginal proposition that is provincial rugby professional. Yet the women’s game has had to content itself with a shoestring budget, on the basis that there simply isn’t the demand for its product. Without the promotion and support to disprove that notion, the Black Ferns had to battle away in the shadows of the men’s game, despite having a far superior major tournament record, and a much more charismatic team.

All that held until the perfect storm that was 2022. Ian Foster’s dramatic decline as a coach meant the All Blacks were chiefly famous for a historic run of losses, while the momentum behind women’s sport internationally has not been given an opportunity to really be tested locally, until the Rugby World Cup belatedly washed up here.

The Black Ferns (and a reasonable ticket price) helped drive a sell-out for the RWC opener, and their riveting, heart attack game management meant that it was not just a consequential socio-cultural moment, but a great match too. It felt like the beginnings of something new and special, a redemption arc for NZ Rugby.

A few weeks later, it fell flat. There was the ignominy of NZ Rugby scheduling an All Blacks game head-to-head with the Black Ferns. As The Spinoff editor Madeleine Chapman wrote at the time, “somehow this feels worse than if it was revealed to be some strange attempt to sabotage its own team. At least a deliberate sabotage implies that NZR thought about the Black Ferns for more than five seconds when making decisions. Instead, the reason is oops we forgot to look at the draw for the tournament that we are playing in and that we are hosting.”

For all that, a funny thing happened that night. While the All Blacks game was oddly entertaining, as they found multiple ways to allow a Japanese team to almost snatch a debut victory, something more profound happened on the other channel. Not only did New Zealand demolish Wales, but when the ratings came back, the Black Ferns had outrated the All Blacks too. Nielsen had over 45,000 more people tuning into Three to watch the game than firing up Sky to watch the All Blacks.

This would have been an unimaginable event a few years ago – the All Blacks have always been an apex predator of attention, with everyone just getting out of the way when a game was on. The Black Ferns beating them for eyes is an extraordinary feat, even notwithstanding the relative stakes of the two games.

Now we stand a few hours away from a home World Cup final at Eden Park, the first since 2011. The Black Ferns go in as underdogs against a dominant English side, but no matter the result, their playing style is so compelling that the game almost cannot help but eclipse the tense but dour All Black victory of a decade ago.

Yet in another way, the Black Ferns have already won. Their approach to the game, their electric interviews, the emotion which radiates from the field – it’s a team you cannot help but fall in love with. For the many young women watching live and on TV, it’s easy to imagine it as the origin story of a lifelong fandom.

For NZ Rugby, despite its historic indifference to the team, this is an unexpected gift. It, and its new investors at Silver Lake, suddenly have not just one major international sporting asset, but two. One which wins ratings battles and sells out stadiums. One which will bring in new sponsors and revenue streams. Better than that, one which has manifestly expanded the total pool of rugby fans in this country by some margin.

All that remains is for the organisation which has a monopoly on the national game in this country to capitalise on this moment. To ensure it’s not a blip but a movement will take care, strategy and, yes, further investment. The prize is bigger than any World Cup, and the business case is now irrefutable. And while tonight’s result is out of its hands, NZ Rugby, the kaitiaki of the Black Ferns, has total control over the long term outcome. Hundreds of thousands of brand new and very passionate fans will be watching. Don’t mess it up.