Over a million lives are on the line around the world, and New Zealand is in the spotlight, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

New research has suggested that 1.2 million deaths from lung cancer could be prevented around the world if the purchase of cigarettes and other tobacco products was banned for people born between 2006 and 2010. Published in the Lancet journal yesterday, and summarised by Maddy Croad for The Press here, the study is the first to evaluate the effect that implementing a tobacco-free generation would have on future lung cancer deaths.

It’s of particular relevance in New Zealand given the coalition government’s decision earlier this year to wind back world-leading legislation that aimed to create a smokefree generation. Otago University’s Richard Edwards, co-author of the international research, said in comments to the Science Media Centre that the government “went backwards on protecting young people from addiction to tobacco products”, which was in “stark contrast” to other countries prioritising the health of young people.

Casey Costello’s ‘advice’ released

The minister responsible for overseeing our smokefree laws – Casey Costello – has been facing widespread pressure this week (and, to be honest, most weeks) over policies perceived by some to be benefitting the tobacco industry. Earlier in the week, it was reported by RNZ’s Guyon Espiner that officials had warned Costello about her decision to halve excise tax on heated tobacco products, saying the biggest beneficiary would be tobacco giant Philip Morris. At the time, Costello claimed she had received “independent advice” that backed up her move.

Yesterday, Costello made that advice public. As described by RNZ’s Russell Palmer, it amounted to “five articles that are either about different products, outdated, or only offer weak support for her view”. It prompted Labour’s health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall to double down on her call for Costello to resign. “She has convinced cabinet to appropriate $216 million towards a benefit exclusively for tobacco companies. And the evidence cabinet trusted her to have does not exist.”

Smokefree repeal unpopular with business leaders

The government has been forced repeatedly to defend its decision to ditch Labour’s smokefree policies. Prime minister Christopher Luxon said his government had simply opted to stick with the status quo given smoking rates have declined over the past decade. The government’s latest quarterly action plan includes a pledge to “launch an updated Smokefree Action Plan to continue progress towards the Smokefree 2025 goal” before the end of the year.

Yesterday’s mood of the boardroom survey, published in the Herald, revealed that the repeal of the smokefree laws was the least popular government reform among business leaders. It scored just 1.97/5. You could argue that it doesn’t matter how the business community views a health issue like this. Or, you could see it that even business leaders are wholly unimpressed with the government’s call around smokefree regulations. A 1News poll released in February showed that 60% of those surveyed were against the rollback, with 30% in support.

What the census tells us

New smoking data also cropped up in yesterday’s release of census data, as explained here by The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus. The stats showed that cigarette smoking has halved since the 2013 census.

The government has maintained it wants to see fewer than 5% of New Zealanders smoking by the end of next year, a goal that was set way back in 2011 by the John Key government. The census reported that 7.7% of the population were regular smokers (higher than the 6.8% estimated by last year’s annual health survey). It’s worth noting that the census did not include questions on vape use, though uptake has reportedly and unsurprisingly grown in recent years. In the UK, reported The Guardian, one million people report vaping despite never having been regular smokers.

In a briefing released this week by the Public Health Communication Centre, researchers concluded that the tobacco products remained “widely accessible” despite the government’s goals, and “tobacco companies remain free to develop highly addictive, palatable and appealing products”.