As NZ First racks up another five percent-plus poll result, the National leader is studiously avoiding the question on everybody’s lips, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
A string of bad polls for Labour – but also a ray of hope
As the campaigning period gets well and truly underway, the polls are starting to come in thick and fast. A new Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll confirms a steep slide in support for Labour, and suggests that a left bloc – Labour, Greens and te Pāti Māori – would get 52 seats, while National and Act would be on 61, just enough to form a government. For the first time this election cycle, Labour’s polling average over the last five established polls has dropped just below 30%. However this morning Stuff reports that Labour’s concerns have been allayed by its own internal party polling by Talbot Mills which has the party “about five percentage points higher” than the Curia poll, Not included in the Spinoff “polling snapshot” below is a new entry into the NZ polling field: the Guardian’s Essential Report New Zealand poll, released earlier this week. The Guardian’s poll closely reflects TPU/Curia, with the same seat totals for both the left and right blocs.
Luxon prevaricates as the Winston problem grows
Perhaps most notable in these recent polls is the remarkable comeback of NZ First, which attracted just 2.6% of the party vote in 2020. Now Winston Peters’ party is consistently scoring above 5%, with TPU/Curia giving them 5.8% – their best numbers yet, and a result that would usher them into parliament with seven seats. Who would fill those seats is still up in the air, as NZ First is yet to release its party list. Also holding back is National leader Chris Luxon, who still refuses to say whether he’d work with Winston Peters. His reticence can be explained by the razor-close projected margin, but on a recent episode of Gone by Lunchtime, co-host Ben Thomas argues there’d be more upside for Luxon to rule Peters out now. By leaving the door open to NZ First, “all you’re doing is cannibalising your own vote”, says Thomas. Peters’ flirtation with the “freedom movement” would make any National government he works with “a one-term fiasco”, writes Matthew Hooton in the NZ Herald (paywalled). “The one useful thing the supposedly principled Luxon might do is at least rule out dealing with this latest version of Peters, the most rhetorically extreme yet.”
Could Labour stage a comeback?
If the published polls are to be believed, things are looking increasingly tough for Labour. But, writing in the Guardian, Henry Cooke says Hipkins still has time to turn things around by pulling off “the campaign of his life”. Cooke thinks Labour could win through a combination of scare tactics over the possibility of the “most rightwing New Zealand government this century”; persuading voters that Labour is on its side over the cost of living; and a major revamp of Hipkins’ scandal-plagued cabinet. “If Hipkins managed such a turnaround he would be written into the history books as a political savant,” writes Cooke. “If he doesn’t he will end up a footnote, a pub quiz question in 20 years – and Labour could face a very long road back to power.” Hipkins will be hoping that his tax policy announcement this Sunday – widely expected to be the removal of GST from fruit and vegetables – heralds the start of a political comeback to rival Labour’s Ardern-led revival in 2017.
Yet another new party launches today
While Act, the Green Party and NZ First make a relatively strong showing, the other minor parties are flopping around in the shallow end of the polls. Their already meagre share of the vote is set to be further diluted by Alfred Ngaro’s new Christian party, which is set to launch today. Ngaro admits his as-yet-unnamed party has left it very late to make a run for parliament, but it’s “going to fire a rocket”, he says. Despite taking an opportunity to name-check British hard-right politician Nigel Farage, Ngaro tells Newstalk ZB’s Barry Soper he’s a centrist at heart, concerned less about left and right politics than “what’s right and what’s wrong”. The former National MP was ousted from parliament in 2020 after losing the Te Atatū electorate to Labour's Phil Twyford by more than 8000 votes.