He claims years of financial mismanagement are to blame for the ‘fragile’ state of the country, but Labour says he’s talking nonsense, asks Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
The state of the nation is….
In the US, it’s near unthinkable for a president to end their annual address to Congress without a firm declaration that the state of the union is “strong”. What a contrast with yesterday’s State of the Nation speech here in New Zealand. The state of the nation is “fragile”, PM Christopher Luxon said, thanks largely to a series of financial blunders by the previous government which would necessitate “tough choices” and “tough love”. Among the alleged missteps highlighted in the speech was a more than $200 billion shortfall in the last government’s budget for transport projects first raised by Nicola Willis in December. As the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan points out (paywalled), $200b is a breathtaking amount, worth about half of New Zealand’s entire GDP. Luxon’s predecessor Chris Hipkins says the figure is “absolute nonsense”. Coughlan has run the numbers and finds – surprise! – both sides are fudging the facts.
Claims and counter-claims over mooted state home sales
In another swipe at Labour, Luxon said Kāinga Ora was considering selling over 10,000 state homes to address its rising debt. Treasury advice received in December said the agency would raise $6 billion from the sale, but Labour says it never saw the proposal, let alone signed off on it, according to the Sunday Star-Times’ Andrea Vance. It seems very unlikely any sale will take place, given there are currently more than 25,000 people on the state housing waiting list, an increase of almost 10% in a year. As Max Rashbrooke notes in his Spinoff analysis of state housing stock under both National and Labour governments, in 2022 Chris Bishop said National would “build enough state and social housing” to clear the waiting list entirely – a promise that’s looking bolder than ever as the waitlist continues to rise.
Did Luxon get out of ‘Prime Manager’ mode?
On Saturday, the Herald’s Claire Trevett (paywalled) wrote that if Luxon again focused on what he sees as Labour’s failings, the State of the Nation “risks being a disappointment” – not ideal for a leader recently criticised for underwhelming speeches at Rātana and Waitangi. Still, given National’s improving poll numbers, he won’t be overly worried about the response to yesterday’s speech. Luxon himself has not enjoyed an “instant Key-esque surge in popularity – but he has nudged up,” Trevett writes. “National will be quietly hoping that indicates he is an acquired taste and voters start to tick over.” To help make that happen, he needs to put aside his “Prime Manager” persona and start being an assertive Prime Minister, she says. In The Post, Vance says yesterday’s address was a step in the right direction. “Sunday’s speech was good. Better still… he sounded like a normal person.”
Hipkins defends low-key approach to Opposition
As for Luxon’s Opposition counterpart, Trevett thinks Chris Hipkins has been playing his hand smartly, “holding his nerve” and staying low-key “to capitalise on the mistakes that are inevitable in a new government”. Tova O’Brien strongly disagrees. “Labour, where the bloody hell are ya?” she exasperatedly asked on Friday, observing that the party had only sent out eight press releases all year. In the same period in 2023, National had sent out 33. None of Labour’s eight were from Hipkins. “Democracies function best when their component parts are strong and right now, Labour is missing in action,” O’Brien writes. Asked to comment on Q&A yesterday, Hipkins said he didn’t measure success by the number of releases sent out, and had no intention of “barking at every passing car”. “When I have something to say, I will say it.”