The National leader has made some tough calls to help get more women into parliament. But when men keep getting selected for winnable seats, he can only do so much, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
Veteran MP calls time after disappointing list ranking
It’s not quite a crystal ball, but the release of National’s list could be as good a glimpse into the political future as we’re going to get. If current polling holds, National could form a government with around 45 MPs drawn from its own ranks, and the list gives a decent picture of who’s definitely in and who’s potentially out. One who’s unequivocally out is Michael Woodhouse, the former cabinet minister now in parliament on the National list. He withdrew his name from this election’s list after seeing his initial ranking, which has not been revealed to the public but clearly put him “outside leadership’s thinking regarding ministerial positions”, according to Woodhouse. The move effectively signals the end of Woodhouse’s political career. He’s still standing in the Dunedin electorate currently held by Labour’s David Clark (who is also stepping down this election), but given the seat has been Labour-held since 1928, except for a single term in the ‘70s, his chances there are not good, to put it mildly. (For a look at the seats that will be competitive, check out The Spinoff this morning for Toby Manhire’s picks for the best electoral contests of 2023).
Luxon tries to engineer a more diverse caucus – with mixed results
Other sitting MPs who won’t be overly delighted by their rankings include Simon O’Connor, Scott Simpson, Stuart Smith, elusive Tauranga MP Sam Uffindell and Tim van de Molen. All have “been sent a clear message,” writes Jo Moir of Newsroom: “win your seats or you’re gone and if you’re back, you’re nowhere near the decision-making table”. It’s a demonstration of leader Christopher Luxon’s “ruthless” use of the list to flex his command over the party – or at least the parts of it he is able to control, says Thomas Coughlan. Low rankings for male MPs in relatively safe seats clear the way for more women to enter parliament on the list – of National’s top 40 this election, 21 are women. The problem for Luxon is that the membership “did not heed his desires for greater diversity,” Coughlan says. “And its famously independent local selections have favoured men in winnable seats.” On current polling, the gender split of the caucus will be “65:35 in favour of men. That’s only a slight improvement on the 68:32 split currently.” For more on the likely gender split of the next parliament, see Ben McKay’s deep dive on The Spinoff.
A history-making election for Te Pāti Māori?
Te Pāti Māori also released its list rankings over the weekend. The number everyone is talking about is 4, the ranking given to 20-year-old first-time candidate Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke. “On current polling, and assuming TPM wins at least one electorate seat, she would become the youngest MP in the New Zealand parliament since 1853, when James Frederick Stuart-Wortley, a colonist who spent just a few years in New Zealand, was elected at the age of 20 years and seven months,” reports Toby Manhire. As the youngest woman elected to parliament, she would also topple Marilyn Waring, who was 23 when she became MP for Raglan in 1975. At number 3 on the list, behind co-leaders Debbie-Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi, is Meka Whaitiri, the MP for Ikaroa-Rawhiti who defected to Te Pāti Māori from Labour earlier this year.
Harsh words for National list at korononeihana
The release of the Māori Party’s list coincided with the korononeihana of Kiingi Tūheitia in Ngāruawahia on Sunday. The Herald’s Michael Neilson writes that the annual event was attended by sizable contingents from all parliamentary parties, except Act which did not attend. Addressing the politicians, Ngāti Rangi spokesman Che Wilson called for Māori not to be treated as a “political football”. He said he was disappointed to see only one Māori candidate in the top 20 of National’s party list. “It’s not good enough in this country right now. There’s no excuse for it.”