Four final polls, and the tiny margins that could decide the 2026 election

The scenarios before us on the eve of election day.

The Post has published the final public-facing poll of the campaign, with a “cliffhanger” result.

The poll, undertaken by Freshwater Strategy, suggests Labour has increased its support by two points since the previous survey in October, putting it on 30.7%. That opens up a lead of more than four points over National, which is on 26.4%, down 1.2 points.

Here it echoes the RNZ/Reid poll, which had Labour on 30.6% and National 24.8%.

The Post poll, undertaken between October 29 and November 3, has the Greens on 13%, NZ First 12%, Act 9.8%, Opportunity 5.1% and Te Pati Māori 2%.

That Opportunity result, down 0.3% on the last survey, will cause palpitations for some. The party has consistently polled over the crucial 5% threshold, but not by much. 

Based on the Post numbers, Opportunity would hold the balance of power, and, assuming Labour won the most seats, negotiate with the left first. 

But should their result end up at, say, 4.9%, the existing coalition would be set to return to power. The difference between 5.1% and 4.9% is about 6,000 votes. 

Here’s how the last four polls published in New Zealand look.

What about when we tally up the presumptive blocs? Here there’s more uniformity, especially among the Verian, Curia and Freshwater polls, which were all in the field for the roughly the same time (end of October and start of November).

With just hours to go, the margins could not be much smaller.

Whether Opportunity meets that 5% mark is one critical question. Then there’s the electorates.

The number of constituencies won by Te Pāti Māori and National beyond the total they’d get based on their party votes – the overhangs – could end up decisive in a close race.

And those electorates, as we’ve seen before, can sometimes come down to a handful of ballots.