A plan about ferries, highly anticipated select committee hearings and a new deputy prime minister are all on the cards for Aotearoa in the 2025 political year. Here’s a rundown of what to expect and when to expect it.
The ‘brace for impact, it’s coming soon’ bits
The political calendar usually kicks off at Rātana Pā near Whanganui with the annual commemoration of the creation of the Rātana church and the birthday of its founder, Tahupōtiki Wiremu Rātana, on January 24. This year, the prime minister is jumping in early with a state of the nation address in Auckland the day prior. Luxon will then head to Rātana, as will MPs from all the parties in parliament except for Act, whose members make a point of not attending the celebrations.
Four days later, on the last Tuesday of January, parliament will resume for the first of the 82 sitting days of this year. With submissions on the Treaty principles bill (which is at select committee stage) and Regulatory Standards Bill (still a discussion document) having recently closed, you can expect these issues to lead early debates in parliament. Meanwhile, the Justice Committee will begin its weeks-long public hearings of submissions on the Treaty principles bill.
Ahead of a prime minister-less Waitangi Day at the Treaty Grounds, the National Iwi Chairs Forum will meet in the far north on February 3 for the first of four annual discussions. The entity, which represents 82 iwi across Aotearoa, usually meets with government officials for this annual hui and the forum already has a clear talking point: its concerns with the Treaty principles bill. It’s unclear who in government will front the hui, as in August last year the Crown (including the prime minister and his ministers) was officially uninvited from future forums.
Luxon still hasn’t confirmed where he’ll be once Waitangi Day swings around on February 6, but Tama Potaka and other ministers will be at the Treaty Grounds to represent the National side. Two to three days of talks between politicians and iwi representatives will preempt the celebrations, and these discussions on the Treaty Grounds are often heated — last year, representatives from the Kiingitanga, the Rātana church and hundreds more attended the early talks, which largely focused on the Treaty principles bill, which was yet to be introduced to parliament.
By the end of February, the Justice Committee will be wrapping up its Treaty principles bill hearings. A report on the bill is due back on May 14, which may recommend changes, after which it will go to a second reading and, as promised by Luxon, will likely be voted down.
Some time in March, our newly minted minister for rail, Winston Peters, is expected to present his alternative plan for the fate of the Interislander ferries to Cabinet before a public announcement is made later. You may remember the ferries taking up a lot of headlines last year – some worked, many didn’t – after finance minister Nicola Willis’s December 2023 cancellation of Labour’s $3bn project to procure two massive rail-enabled ferries. Peters’ plan may include a $900m spend on smaller Interislander ferries which may be rail-enabled.
And then, the main event for the first half of the year: New Zealand gets a new deputy prime minister on May 31. David Seymour will take over the reins from Winston Peters in a historic changing of the guard in parliament, for that coveted seat next to Luxon in the debating chamber.
The ‘we’ll get around to this one later’ bits
In May or June, finance minister Nicola Willis will unveil Budget 2025, which will be informed by goals to build a stronger economy, deliver effective services and “get the government’s books back in order and restore discipline to public spending”, according to the Treasury’s Budget Policy Statement. If this all sounds familiar, it’s because those were the same goals used to create Budget 2024, and it means it’s going to be another very tight budget: most of the government’s slim $2.4bn operating allowance has already been allocated.
Following the announcement of Budget 2025, parliament will have its first scrutiny week of the year from June 16-19, before the second and final scrutiny week from December 1-5. The June dates will see select committees examine spending in the budget, while the latter scrutiny week will be dedicated to reviewing how public entities have spent their money.
On September 4, Te Arikinui Kuini Nga wai hono i te po will celebrate her first koroneihana at Tūrangawaewae Marae. The week-long celebrations will be the first since the death of her father Kiingi Tūheitia, and will see Nga wai hono i te po make her first major speech as Māori queen.
But before then, local government issues will be at the forefront as New Zealand prepares for its local body elections, held every three years. These elections will decide whether the likes of Wayne Brown and Tory Whanau will continue their mayoral runs, and who does and doesn’t make it onto city, district and regional councils, as well as community boards and local boards. Postal voting will open on September 9 and close on October 11.
At the same time, 42 authorities will be holding a referendum on Māori wards, thanks to a coalition agreement to reinstate a policy scrapped four years ago by Labour that requires citizen-initiated referendums in order to establish Māori wards. Councils that instated Māori wards without a referendum will now ask residents whether they want to retain these wards, designed to ensure Māori are represented in local government. So far, only two councils have voted to abolish planned or existing Māori wards: Kaipara District Council and Upper Hutt City Council.
Some time in October (presumably after the local elections), Luxon will meet with India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. This meeting will likely see Luxon aim to progress a free-trade deal with India, the world’s fastest-growing economy. During the election campaign, he promised to secure such a deal during his first term.
The ‘we have to talk about this eventually’ bits
At some point, the government is expected to deliver a new plan for a new Dunedin hospital. After teasing a scaling down of the hospital project in September following a budget blowout, health minister Shane Reti and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop said a decision would be made “in a matter of weeks”. It’s now been a matter of months, and despite the government receiving advice from Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand in December, multiple Official Information Act requests from the Otago Daily Times have been declined or delayed.
After years of being talked about, the Smokefree 2025 version of New Zealand will arrive – or will it? As laid out in the annual New Zealand Health Survey, released in November, smoking and vaping rates in 2024 failed to decrease from the year prior, and RNZ reports 80,000 more people will need to give up the smoke this year to reach the goal of fewer than 5% of New Zealanders smoking by the end of 2025. Expect associate health minister Casey Costello to make some sort of announcement, perhaps informed by independent advice.
A few bills are still waiting in the wings for their first reading, including Green MP Kahurangi Carter’s member’s bill Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill, which would allow comedians to use copyrighted material to poke a bit of fun. Other bills are still at select committee stage, like the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill, which would allow Aotearoa’s news media entities to make commercial agreements with digital platform providers such as Google and Meta, and Act’s Karen Chhour’s Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Amendment Bill, which would establish a declaration for “serious” young offenders and a military-style academy order in the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989.
Currently at its second reading is Chhour’s Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill, which will remove the Treaty of Waitangi obligations of the entity’s chief executive and the wider Oranga Tamariki group. Due for its final reading is NZ First minister Shane Jones’ Crown Minerals Amendment Bill, which seeks to remove the ban on oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa.