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PoliticsOctober 18, 2020

Election Live, October 18: Ardern sets timetable for new government; new community case of Covid detected

update1810

All the news and reaction as NZ wakes to a Labour landslide. You can reach us at info@thespinoff.co.nz

3.15pm: A better visual breakdown of the 2020 election results

Electoral results maps can often be deceiving, over-emphasising large but sparsely populated rural areas and under-emphasising densely populated ones. So policy analyst Stephen Beban has created the hexamap by breaking down the map into small, coloured hexagons., thereby giving a more accurate representation.

Have a read here to see what results the map shows.

 

2.40pm: Ardern speaks to media in Auckland

Flanked by senior Labour MPs, Jacinda Ardern held a press conference this afternoon at Crave Cafe in Morningside, as crowds milled ahead of the Bledisloe Cup test at Eden Park. She said she expected the formation of a new government to take two to three weeks. She had spoken with both Green co-leaders and they would hold more substantial conversations. But, she stressed, “the mandate does exist for Labour”.

Ardern said she had not spoken to the Māori Party, which is set to bring one MP to parliament, in part because “we hotly contest those seats with the Māori Party.”

Asked for a thought on Winston Peters, whose political career is likely to be over, Ardern said, “I think he leaves a big legacy. He has given his life and service to politics, and that, to me, commands respect.”

Jacinda Ardern at Crave. Photo: TOby Manhire

1.25pm: New community case in NZ – Bloomfield

There is a new community case of Covid-19 in New Zealand, but it is “a case that shows our systems to identify cases early are working”, said Ashley Bloomfield.

The case is a man whose work involves working at ports, including in the last two weeks Auckland  and Taranaki.

The man had been getting fortnightly Covid-19 tests as part of routine testing. He returned a negative testing result on October 2 but on Friday October 16 he had respiratory symptoms and rang Healthline, which told him to get tested and self-isolate. His test returned positive yesterday afternoon.

There was a high level of confidence that the man’s contacts had been ring-fenced quickly, said Bloomfield. “His close contacts are either self-isolating or in a managed isolation facility.”

On Wednesday October 14 he was in New Plymouth working on a ship in the dock, and had stayed in the city for two nights, in a motel one night and a different hotel one night. Bloomfield said public health teams had advised those establishments that the rooms he stayed in should be deep cleaned. It’s thought there are no close contacts from either place of accommodation but CCTV footage is being reviewed to confirm that. Staff the man had interactions with had been offered testing.

Close contacts from his work in New Plymouth are being scoped, said Bloomfield, and is largely people on the vessel he worked on. “In the course of his work he uses a mask and gloves, as do crew on the vessel. People on that vessel he worked on in New Plymouth are being treated as close contacts.”

The ship is en route to Napier, where the public health team is getting in place plans to isolate and test the crew there once they arrive, said Bloomfield.

The man travelled back to Auckland on Wednesday evening, was not at work on Thursday and only made a trip out for food, said Bloomfield. Push notifications on the Covid Tracer app are being prepared for any potential exposure.

The man went to his workplace in Auckland on Friday, and as soon as he became unwell he contacted Healthline.

“Because the man was tested so quickly after developing symptoms… we were able to identify and isolate his own close contacts within a space of a few hours after receiving the test result yesterday afternoon.”

“We know the border is an area of risk for more cases of this virus to emerge,” said Bloomfield. “And that is why we have regularised, routine testing for many people working at our borders and other stringent measures in place.”

Asked whether the public should have been alerted earlier, he said: “All the people who needed to know were being told, identified, put in self-isolation and tested.” The minister of health had been informed yesterday evening.

Towards the end of the briefing, Bloomfield made an important clarification: “This most likely is a border related case, and so far there is no evidence of any community transmission.”

12.30pm: Judith Collins speaks to media

Despite last night’s election thrashing, an upbeat and stoic Judith Collins fronted to media in Auckland this morning to say “we’ve taken this knock, but you know what? We may be down, but we ain’t out.”

Collins expected to remain leader of the National Party, saying that stepping down was not the honourable thing to do. While she still commended her party’s effort – particularly Paul Goldsmith – she said she felt sad mostly for National’s supporters.

“I feel very sorry for our supporters, because even with the difficulties, I think we could have probably done better.”

She said the next step was to establish stability within the party and conduct a review of the past three years.

11.40pm: Bloomfield to provide briefing today

The Ministry of Health has just announced that its director general, Ashley Bloomfield, “provide an update to the media” about Covid-19 at 1pm today. We’ll keep an eye on it and left you know the latest.

10.30am: Collins says National up for a full review

Judith Collins has admitted the party’s leadership is up for a “full review” but remains positive about the future of the party. Collins sounded bright and cheery during her conversation with Newstalk ZB, saying the “sun’s shining” and she’s looking forward to the rugby tonight. She’s going out for brunch with parliamentary staff today.

“Today’s the start of the campaign,” Collins said. She remained confident she would stay in the party’s top job. Questions would be asked about how the party’s overall results were so low, Collins said, including whether there was enough focus on the party vote.

Collins admitted she felt sorry for Winston Peters, whose party has not been returned to parliament, but admitted he’s “not everyone’s cup of tea”.

9.45am: Brownlee made ‘huge mistake’ when electioneering

National deputy leader and campaign chair Gerry Brownlee said he made a huge mistake when he insinuated that the government had withheld information about the latest Covid-19 outbreak.

Speaking on TVNZ’s Q+A this morning, Brownlee said the his comments weren’t intended and shouldn’t have been made.

While he said he was disappointed by his party’s election result, he said voters had spoken and he congratulated the Labour Party on an historic win.

While Brownlee said he thought Judith Collins should remain leader of the National Party and had support from caucus, he refused to say whether he would commit to another three-year term having lost his Ilam seat.

“That’s for me to think about over the next few days.”

9.30am: Green Party ‘ecstatic’ about result

“Really ecstatic, completely stoked.” That’s what Marama Davidson, Green Party co-leader, told RNZ about her party’s election result. On the question of a governing deal with Labour, she said: “People do not want to see just one party in power.”
Any such deal would require ministerial responsibilities for Green MPs, she said.

9.00am: Labour Party to begin planning new government today

The morning after its extraordinary victory, the Labour Party has said it will need to digest its results before speaking with the Greens about forming a new government.

Speaking on RNZ today, Labour Party MP and campaign chair Megan Woods said now that voters had had their say, more energy could be devoted to planning what the new government would look like.

“That’s the work that begins today.”

“We’ve been so focused on the campaign and on the plan… and now is the appropriate time to be thinking about what that result means.”

Woods also praised her party’s result, saying it was extraordinary in an MMP environment. She also said Labour’s unlikely victory in traditionally safe National seats were unexpected wins that defied belief within her party.

“We were all watching in somewhat disbelief the fact that we won Ilam… I think that was a significant upset.”

“It’s a huge privilege to receive each and every result that we’ve received.”

7.00am: Highest turnout for 20 years

A press release from the Electoral Commission this morning puts the turnout in the 2020 election at an estimated 82.5%. If confirmed that would make it the highest turnout since the 1999 election. Last election the turnout was 79.8%.

Special votes are thought to number around 480,000,  or 17% of the total vote. The total estimated vote overall is estimated at 2,877,117.

The other details, for the nerds: “By 6pm on Friday 16 October, 3,487,654 people were enrolled, or 92.5% of eligible voters. The final enrolment rate in 2017 was 92.4%. 1,976,996 people are estimated to have voted in advance, which is estimated to be 69% of total votes cast.  In 2017, 47% of votes were cast in advance.”

6.30am: The day after the night before

If you were sleeping or off-grid, read Justin Giovannetti’s summary of election night here.

In short, the 120 seats in the NZ parliament look like this:

Labour: 64
National: 35
Act: 10
Greens: 10
Māori Party: 1

Keep going!
Judith Collins on October 17, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)
Judith Collins on October 17, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)

PoliticsOctober 18, 2020

‘A funeral’: What went down at National’s yacht club function

Judith Collins on October 17, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)
Judith Collins on October 17, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)

National had prepared for the worst. But it hadn’t prepared for that. Stewart Sowman-Lund watched the ship crash and burn.

The invitation sent out ahead of National’s election night event said to arrive at 7pm. Of course, only media would arrive on time – the guests would be fashionably late.

But as time ticked on, the 400-seater Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron never felt packed. The first National candidate, Melissa Lee, arrived about 8pm. Paul Goldsmith an hour later. Chris Penk and Simeon Brown snuck in moments before the leader herself, Judith Collins, was due to arrive. Nobody seemed that keen to talk to media.

There may have been more Auckland-based National candidates in the room, but they didn’t make it known. By my count, you could place the number of National MPs in the room on one hand.

Melissa Lee, the party’s Mount Albert candidate, insisted she hadn’t seen the results when she arrived. I politely informed her that her party was going to lose the election, but she said that with just 20% of the vote counted, it was still “too early to tell”. It wasn’t.

The writing was on the wall for a bleak evening long before Collins made her tearful address. There was no bar tab for attendees and the food was limited. Maybe I’m being cynical: I hadn’t eaten dinner. 

I have more toes than the number of balloon bunches that were on display around the venue.

The main decorations were glass bowls filled with uncurled streamers. Why would you not uncurl a streamer? TVNZ’s Maiki Sherman joked about bringing them home for her kid.

A sad bowl of streamers (Image : Stewart Sowman-Lund)

Judith Collins arrived at 10pm. Party faithful formed a guard of honour, chanting “Judith!” Someone yelled “two ticks blue!” It was too late.

A severely inebriated white girl next to me yelled “Talofa, bitches”. She was told to shut up by an equally inebriated white woman. National staffers tried to amp up the crowd.

Then Collins spoke, and the room went silent. The emotion in the room was palpable. Collins was teary-eyed, as she congratulated Jacinda Ardern and gave no indication she’d be stepping down. As far as Collins is concerned, she’ll be fighting Ardern again in three years’ time.

Acknowledging the welcome she received tonight, Collins said “anyone would have thought we’d won”. It kinda felt like that in the room.

“We will take time to reflect and we will review and we will change,” Collins said, as someone in the back of the crowd shouted out: “Good”.

“National will emerge from this loss a stronger, disciplined and more connected party.” It was a concession speech, but I honestly believed her.

Then she was gone. Collins left the stage and headed back stage. She spent no time mingling with those gathered to support her.

Photo: Stewart Sowman-Lund

One attendee spoken to by The Spinoff described the night as a “fucking funeral”. 

“You’ve got people in seats that have lost their 2,000-seat majority… we’re fucked,” they said.

The party was continuing, but anyone of note had shuffled out of sight. 

A senior National Party aide had a tear in their eye as they spoke to The Spinoff. They spoke of Collins’ determination, saying she never wavered throughout the past three months. 

The National leader would be enjoying her first red wine of the campaign, they said. Surely she’d have a gin, I asked. She wouldn’t, they said. Red wine was Collins’ drink.

While Collins wouldn’t be giving a full media stand-up, a large contingent of political reporters had gathered outside the rear exit of the venue to capture the moment she left. A crown car had its engine going. Mike McRoberts was there, microphone at the ready, as the minutes ticked by. 

Over an hour later, Collins was ready to emerge. The car was still revving. National supporters pushed their way in front of the waiting reporters, ready to cheer on Collins yet again. They weren’t going to let her face journalists alone, not tonight. Collins refused to speak, as expected, walking to her waiting car with that glued on smile we’ve come to know over the past few weeks. She sat in the backseat with her son.

For Collins, the campaign was over. I hope she had a shiraz or five at home. 

Judith Collins leaves the National Party function (Photo: Stewart Sowman-Lund)

Then the journalists dispersed, the clock ticked toward midnight, and Hamish Price emerged. The notorious Twitter personality had been working on the (failed) campaign for Emma Mellow, National’s Auckland Central candidate. He was also one of the planted supporters during Judith Collins devastating Ponsonby Road walk. 

“It is what it is,” he told The Spinoff when asked about the election result. “A lot of people are going to lose their jobs.”

Price, who became a viral figure on Twitter recently for his massive green shoes, said he was angry people focused on his footwear and that people thought they were purchased from The Warehouse. “I walked halfway across Spain in those shoes… they cost $500.” He wasn’t wearing them tonight, but he wished he was, he said. 

There’d be a lot more time to spend in “woke cafes” over the next three years, Price joked, forlornly. 

Emma Mellow herself wandered out next. By this time, it was clear she wouldn’t be an MP. She knew she’d come third, placing behind both Chloe Swarbrick of the Greens and Labour’s Helen White. Melissa Lee told Price to “look after her”, with a finger point. 

It was a bleak end to the night. I went in search of a beer. 

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