The biggest response to tonight’s poll is likely to have been a sigh of relief from the Beehive.

Tempting though it is to divine seismic activity in a poll result, the message from tonight’s TVNZ/Kantar survey is essentially same-again. The biggest movement was a drop of two percentage points for Act, down to a still healthy 9%, but the biggest emotion was likely to be from the Beehive, in the form of a sigh of relief at Labour inching up by a nominal point to 34%. National was steady on 37%, as was the Green Party on 9%.

That relief for Labour is not just for its own result, but confirmation that the gap between the two blocs, which threatened in the last poll by Kantar for TVNZ to begin yawning, is if anything slightly closing. 

Relief is a long way from delight, however. If those results were reflected on election day, National and Act would be able to form a government, albeit by the proverbial cigarette paper of a single seat. Though the poll – which had an undecided result of 13%, up from 11% in the last couple – suggests that National’s momentum may have slowed, especially with Christopher Luxon dropping a point in the preferred PM stakes, it bears recalling how far-fetched the idea of a National-led government seemed one year ago, with Judith Collins at the turbulent helm. 

While the Uffindell controversy may have played its part in stalling National’s climb, it’s worth at least tangentially observing that there was a remarkable absence of any anonymous backstabbing or leaks from caucus. 

It is tempting, too, to plug into a virtual calculator the Uffindell controversy minus the Sharma palaver minus Kiwisaver fee GST U-turn divided by the square root of Jacinda Ardern’s performance on the world stage. Maybe none of it moved the needle. What can be said with more confidence is that the stage is set for the year (or so) to election day. 

Attention will grow in the months to come on not just the likely support parties of Act or the Greens, but the smaller parties, especially te Pāti Māori and, yes, New Zealand First. Never Write Off Winston Peters is the most wearied mantra of New Zealand politics, but as the septuagenarian tours the provinces denouncing the “insidious” nature of the current lot, efforts to erase it forever are in vain. Three percent is more than decent a year from an election; if the party jumps a point in the next poll or two, they’ll get the bit very much between the teeth. 

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