For the eighth year in a row, The Spinoff asked a hand-selected group of experts for their most outlandish political prophecy. And for the eighth year in a row, they did not disappoint.
Madeleine Chapman (editor, The Spinoff)
Winston Peters will realise just how bad it feels to hand over his deputy prime ministership to David Seymour and will shortly after cause the coalition to implode.
Eric Crampton (chief economist, The New Zealand Initiative)
My long-shot punt: iwi find opportunity to take up powers comparable to councils for rangatiratanga over reserve land and land held under Māori land tenure: zoning, consenting, rates, possibly authority to find better structures for governance of land held under Māori land tenure.
Andrew Geddis (law professor, University of Otago)
Following an impromptu ayahuasca ceremony held in 3.2, Act and Te Pāti Māori MPs come to realise that they actually are all thoughts in the dream of the one spirit and seek to join the Green Party. Chlöe is not impressed.
Lara Greaves (politics associate professor, University of Auckland)
I would like to double-or-nothing my 2024 prediction: “The leader of a parliamentary political party gets rolled.”
Duncan Greive (founder, The Spinoff)
Nicola Willis will be prime minister by July 1.
Joel MacManus (Wellington editor, The Spinoff)
Mark Sainsbury will run for mayor of Wellington.
Toby Manhire (editor-at-large, The Spinoff)
Donald Trump will announce a visit to New Zealand.
In this bonus, snackable festive pod, Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire point their goggles at 2025. Which issues will dominate, who will we be keeping an eye on, and just how unhinged are the predictions we’re willing to make?
Ben McKay (AAP Pacific editor)
Australia goes to the polls twice. An April election produces a deadlocked parliament with Labor propped up by a few Teals, independents and Greens. It’s unworkable and Albanese gambles on a second election. He loses, sending Peter Dutton to The Lodge.
Alice Neville (deputy editor, The Spinoff)
Kieran McAnulty will roll Chris Hipkins and assume leadership of the Labour Party, but his reign will be short-lived, as he in turn will be rolled by his greyhound Zoi. Emboldened by her species’ newfound freedom and fame, Zoi will establish a cabal of her fellow hounds to stage a bloodless but bark-full coup, ousting the coalition and taking over the running of the country.
Stewart Sowman-Lund (Bulletin editor, The Spinoff)
Winston Peters will refuse to relinquish the deputy premiership to David Seymour.
Got a wild prediction for 2025? Comment below.