This time last year, our esteemed team of political pundits made their wildest predictions for the year of our Lord 2024. Did anyone make an accurate call? Let’s find out.

Madeleine Chapman: Barbara Edmonds reluctantly takes the position of Labour leader or deputy.

Somewhat surprisingly, there has been no movement among the Labour leadership since the party’s dismal election result in 2023. The caucus has appeared, outwardly at least, more unified than ever as we head into the middle year of this political cycle. It’s entirely feasible this will shift over the next 12 months, but for now, Mad’s prediction proved as realistic as Labour sticking with a tax policy.

Mihingarangi Forbes: Snap election on April 27, 2024.

Absolutely not. We’re very much on track for a late 2026 election, as scheduled, though who knows what will happen before then.

Ben McKay: Overburdened with self-confidence, the seemingly permanently head-banded Helen White has a crack at the Labour leadership but loses by roughly 21,000 votes. She tells Newshub she is proud of the outcome.

The saddest part of this prediction is that Newshub is no longer around for Helen White to be questioned by. But regardless, this wild call did not come to fruition and it would appear people have heard less from Helen White over the past 12 months than they did in the days after she nearly lost the Labour stronghold of Mount Albert. Maybe she’s biding her time? Or maybe she’s just being a good old-fashioned backbencher.

Lara Greaves: The leader of a parliamentary political party gets rolled.

There’s only been one change at the top of a political party (more on that below) but it did not come from a rolling. Everything is pretty much the same as we left it in December last year. Maybe 2025 will deliver more twists and turns?

Anna Rawhiti-Connell: Nicola Willis will lead the National Party… (I am committing to the bit forever now). Chris Hipkins will not be leader of Labour by June next year, and Grant Robertson and Willie Jackson will retire from politics shortly after the summer break. Chlöe Swarbrick will be co-leader of the Greens.

Nope, Nicola Willis firmly remains National’s deputy leader and finance minister. Chris Hipkins is still Labour leader and Willie Jackson remains the same outspoken member of parliament as ever. A couple of points on the board for Anna, however. Grant Robertson did retire from politics shortly after the summer break, announcing his departure in March before heading off to be vice chancellor of Otago University. And Chlöe Swarbrick is indeed now the co-leader of the Greens after taking over from the departed James Shaw. 

Andrew Geddis: The International Linguistic Reserves Fund announces that global stocks of the word “actually” have been completely depleted, rendering Christopher Luxon unable to speak.

Though technically not correct, it would appear Christopher Luxon has instead found a new turn of phrase: “What I say to you is”. I’m prepared to give Andrew some credit here, if not only because most of these predictions were fizzers.

Toby Manhire: There are heaps of national elections around the world next year, with more people voting than ever before. One of those elections will bizarrely but inexorably draw New Zealand into its orbit.

There have indeed been a number of national elections around the world this year – that part of Toby’s prediction was bound to be truthful. It’s harder to put a finger on whether or not New Zealand has been drawn into any orbits, however. On the one hand, Christopher Luxon did appear to be the unlikely catalyst for some leadership changes abroad, including being one of the final world leaders to spend time with Joe Biden before he decided to call it quits on the Democratic ticket. The impending ascension of Donald Trump to the US presidency does risk bringing New Zealand into a bit of a sticky situation over trade, though the coalition’s moves towards the Aukus alliance could ease things a bit. Time will tell whether Toby was on the money, for now I’m going to call this a mixed prediction.

Alice Neville: Winston Peters opens his mind to a wider definition of the word waka, which sparks an epiphany that leads him to quit politics and take over the Green Parrot.

Winston Peters is very much still in politics, and as far as I can ascertain, has not taken over the Green Parrot. I’m also fairly confident his mind has not widened that much over the past 12 months, but let’s see how he deals with the fallout from the Treaty principles bill as it passes through select committee.

*Predictor’s note: As of March, Peters was still firmly of the belief that a waka could only ever be a boat

Stewart Sowman-Lund: Labour will cycle through three leaders in 2024 (not including Chris Hipkins) before Kieran McAnulty finally gives in and triggers a new phenomenon known as Kieran Delirium. 

Another prediction of a change of leadership at the top of Labour, which sadly means I have to give myself a fail grade. Kieran McAnulty has staunchly maintained he has no interest in leading the opposition, though there admittedly hasn’t been a vacancy for him either. McAnulty is set to oversee Labour’s election campaign, however, so perhaps he’ll get more of a taste for leadership over the next two years.

Shanti Mathias: At least two MPs (one government and one opposition) will drink straight from a river to make a point about freshwater quality.

I can find no member of parliament who drank from a river, unless it happened in their own personal time which is possible though unlikely.

Haimona Gray: Let’s get spicy… a political party currently in parliament will face at least one, but likely multiple, court cases around campaign finances and related financial improprieties. This will lead to the party losing both a significant financial asset and credibility among newly-acquired voters. It all could take a very Trumpian “the deep state are after me” turn with the most minor of prodding.

It was indeed a spicy prediction, but not one that proved accurate (at least that we know of – how deep is the deep state? I’m just asking questions).

Amber Easby: Jacinda Ardern decides writing is not for her, returns to (local) politics.

It’s possible Jacinda Ardern has decided writing is not for her – we’ve yet to see even a teaser of her promised memoir. But she has most definitely not returned to politics, local or otherwise.

Shane Te Pou: Watch Mata Reports, a story on The Māori Carbon Collective. More outstanding work by Mihingarangi Forbes and Annabelle Lee-Mather. Next year, everyone will be talking about this show. The story is HUGE!

Less a prediction, more of a call to arms. It’s been a shaky year for the local media but, yes, Mata Reports is still chugging along and it’s hard to deny the impact of that work. So, given the lack of success among our predictions, I’m prepared to give Shane a pass grade.

Joel MacManus: At least one council will secede and form a self-governing city-state.

Nope, though it felt possible at times given the drama we’ve seen in parts of the country. Maybe Wellington, with the support of its observer, will choose to make the move next year? We’ll just have to wait and see.