Stare into the politics crystal ball (Image: Archi Banal)
Stare into the politics crystal ball (Image: Archi Banal)

PoliticsDecember 20, 2023

A bunch of outlandish political predictions for the year 2024

A bunch of people
Stare into the politics crystal ball (Image: Archi Banal)
Stare into the politics crystal ball (Image: Archi Banal)

For the seventh year in a row, The Spinoff asked a hand-selected group of experts for their wildest political prophecy. And for the seventh year in a row, they did not disappoint.

Madeleine Chapman

Barbara Edmonds reluctantly takes the position of Labour leader or deputy.

Mihingarangi Forbes

Snap election on April 27, 2024.

Ben McKay

Overburdened with self-confidence, the seemingly permanently head-banded Helen White has a crack at the Labour leadership but loses by roughly 21,000 votes. She tells Newshub she is proud of the outcome.

Lara Greaves

The leader of a parliamentary political party gets rolled.

Anna Rawhiti-Connell

Nicola Willis will lead the National Party… (I am committing to the bit forever now).

Chris Hipkins will not be leader of Labour by June next year, and Grant Robertson and Willie Jackson will retire from politics shortly after the summer break. Chlöe Swarbrick will be co-leader of the Greens.

Chris Hipkins surrounded by Peeni Henare, David Parker, Carmel Sepuloni
Chris Hipkins and some possible leadership contenders (Image: Archi Banal)

Andrew Geddis

The International Linguistic Reserves Fund announces that global stocks of the word “actually” have been completely depleted, rendering Christopher Luxon unable to speak.

Toby Manhire

There are heaps of national elections around the world next year, with more people voting than ever before. One of those elections will bizarrely but inexorably draw New Zealand into its orbit.

Alice Neville

Winston Peters opens his mind to a wider definition of the word waka, which sparks an epiphany that leads him to quit politics and take over the Green Parrot.

Stewart Sowman-Lund

Labour will cycle through three leaders in 2024 (not including Chris Hipkins) before Kieran McAnulty finally gives in and triggers a new phenomenon known as Kieran Delirium. 

Shanti Mathias

At least two MPs (one government and one opposition) will drink straight from a river to make a point about freshwater quality.

More Reading

    Haimona Gray

    Let’s get spicy… a political party currently in parliament will face at least one, but likely multiple, court cases around campaign finances and related financial improprieties. This will lead to the party losing both a significant financial asset and credibility among newly-acquired voters. It all could take a very Trumpian “the deep state are after me” turn with the most minor of prodding.

    Amber Easby

    Jacinda Ardern decides writing is not for her, returns to (local) politics.

    Shane Te Pou

    Watch Mata Reports, a story on The Māori Carbon Collective. More outstanding work by Mihingarangi Forbes and Annabelle Lee-Mather. Next year, everyone will be talking about this show. The story is HUGE!

    Joel MacManus

    At least one council will secede and form a self-governing city-state.

    Keep going!