From coup conjecture at home to a breakthrough abroad.
It wasn’t just the one week, not really. Back in February a series of unfortunate events – many of his own making – befell Christopher Luxon. After a burst of growthy-changey music at the outset of the year, the weeks since for the prime minister were accompanied mostly by a low, lacklustre hum.
That turned into something more like nails on a chalkboard last week. A series of polls had sent home a bleak message: New Zealanders just aren’t that into you. Consecutive results from Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union and Talbot Mills for whoever that got leaked to were bad for National but worse for Luxon personally. Both had him a hair’s breadth above 20% in the preferred prime minister category. Both put him behind Chris Hipkins.
Asked about the polls, Luxon grinned and said he got it, but it was not fun at all. That, combined especially with the fallout from a bizarre interview with Mike Hosking in which the prime minister for reasons unknown decided to play that game in which you can’t use the words yes or no, fomented a blizzard of speculation.
Conjuring the energy of the years when leadership coups were the norm, Duncan Garner declared the phone to be “off the hook” with National MPs already “plotting his downfall”. While more commentators (among them Richard Harman, Claire Trevett and Tracy Watkins) said there was no plausible threat to his leadership at this point, all of them reckoned the pressure was growing in response to what many judged, as Watkins put it, a “lousy job”.
Ryan Bridge thought that “talk Luxon will be rolled is naff.” Andrea Vance, author of Blue Blood, the chronicle of the National Party civil wars before Luxon was swept into power, meanwhile offered some reassurance in a column headlined, “Why Christopher Luxon isn’t about to be rolled”, but it came with a telling final word, “(yet)”. “Luxon can breathe easy for now,” concluded Vance, but it too came with a grimly breezy qualifier. “He will likely be rolled, but not imminently.”
With all that going on, the big infrastructure investment jamboree at the end of last week could hardly have come at a better time. A host of squillion-dollar fund managers had flown in and congregated on the Auckland waterfront to hear the growth sermon. Alongside various politicians, including opposition MPs, were representatives of iwi organisations, integral engines of the New Zealand economy.
Luxon played his part, hit the marks, delivered the lines. There was no doubt this was a home crowd, but it was nevertheless far from guaranteed he’d ace it. The messages, it seemed, had been polished with a gentle nod to the mayhem emanating out of a Trump White House that has in a few short weeks sparked pandemonium in global markets, leaving more than anything a constant tremor of uncertainty.
In that light, the flipside of New Zealand’s vulnerability to global vicissitudes is a commitment to the rules-based approach on which a trading nation – a cork on the ocean – depends. Luxon told potential investors this: “New Zealand has been, and will continue to be, a poster child for social and political stability, in a more volatile and changing world.”
Almost as soon as that summit wrapped, Luxon was boarding the Air Force express to India. As Luxon arrived in Delhi so did the news that New Zealand and India had formally launched negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement. “Comprehensive” meaning that dairy products will not be exempted, or not at the outset at least.
Luxon had made a surprising commitment during the election campaign – seemingly on the hoof following a TV debate – that he would secure a free trade deal with India before the term was out. That remains a long shot, but it is nevertheless a boon, and a timely one.
The talks, which follow groundwork laid by Todd McClay, are all the more meaningful set against the backdrop of the broiling Trump trade war, both in atmospherics and in practice. It sends an important reminder that not all trade roads lead to or via Washington DC. Successive governments have stressed that New Zealand needs to diversify its export market mix so as not to be too dependent on China. Nor, recent activity would caution, too dependent on the US. India ranks down the list as New Zealand’s 12th biggest trading partner, despite having become the world’s most populous country.
The usual caveats apply: nothing has been agreed, or even formally discussed, yet. But the development, which Luxon could call without hyperbole a “major breakthrough” must have been a fillip for any flagging confidence. The global newswire headline of yesterday, “India and New Zealand look to bolster ties after reviving free trade talks”, was a fair bit preferable to that of a fortnight earlier: “New Zealand’s economic missteps hasten exodus to sunnier shores”.
He could be comforted, too, by reports that his two coalition counterparts were getting on with it without stealing any thunder. Winston Peters was busy bringing his vast diplomatic experience to bear in New York and Washington, while David Seymour was for the time being focused on local politics rather than explosive sandwiches.
The rest of Luxon’s India trip appears to be progressing successfully, too. He delivered a strong, serious-minded keynote address at the sometimes-boisterous Raisina Dialogue. And he dealt adeptly with a bit of a curveball from Narendra Modi on supposed “anti-Indian activities” and “illegal elements” in New Zealand. (Apologies, that should be googly rather than curveball and, yes, Luxon did do the obligatory cricket-themed banter with the Indian prime minister.)
A week, let me be the first person ever to say, is a long time in politics. The Post’s political editor, Luke Malpass, wrote from India that there were signs the prime minister was “getting his mojo back”. Whether he can ride that mojo wave back to New Zealand is another matter. And so is the next challenge – one that a leading commentator has repeatedly prioritised – feeding it back into the national bloodstream.
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