Catching Covid-19 for Christmas isn’t inevitable – we just need to remember what caution looks like.  

As we near the finish line for this year – among a flurry of work functions, mounds of ham and a tangle of last-minute gift wrapping – the air is filled with anticipation of the impending summer period. But that’s not all that’s in the air. 

Although the prime minister recently said that “this will be the first Christmas and summer holiday in three years where we haven’t had Covid hanging over us”, the  numbers tell a vastly different story. Aotearoa is in the middle of a growing outbreak of Covid-19, with no sign of it slowing down in time for Christmas lunch. 

A month ago, on Monday 21 November, there were 24,068 new community cases of Covid-19 reported over the previous week – up 3,473 on the previous week. That Saturday, more than 4,300 Covid-19 cases were reported, the highest daily reported total since August. Hospitalisations were at 344, with three people in an intensive care or high dependency care unit. Forty new deaths were added to the official death toll. Since then, the numbers have only been on the up.

Monday, 28 November:

• 27,076 new Covid-19 cases recorded over the previous week 
• 328 people hospitalised with the virus
• 10 people in intensive care
• 58 deaths added to the official death toll

Monday 5 December:

• 34,528 new Covid-19 cases recorded over the previous week 
• 418 people hospitalised with the virus
• 10 people in intensive care 
• 40 deaths added to the official death toll

Monday 12 December:

• 40,098 new Covid-19 cases recorded over the previous week 
• 514 people hospitalised with the virus
• 14 people in intensive care 
• 35 deaths added to the official death toll

Monday 19 December:

• 42,740 new Covid-19 cases recorded over the previous week 
• 581 people hospitalised with the virus
• 15 people in intensive care
• 64 deaths added to the official death toll

This week’s numbers, despite being low on our minds as we brave the shopping malls, are scary. Sixty-four deaths.

Overall, reported cases have risen by around 77% percent over the past month – with a 68% increase in hospitalisations. Virus levels in wastewater follow a similar upward trajectory. Meanwhile the ascertainment rate – the amount of people reporting positive cases – is believed to be only around 50 percent. Meaning that the real number of Covid-19 cases could be double the official numbers. 

New modelling by the Ministry of Health suggests cases could peak at around 13,000 a day by the end of December, with a peak of around 1,100 hospitalisations each day. Those numbers are akin to the numbers during the second wave of Omicron in July this year. 

We’re not the only country looking to have a Covid-19 Christmas. Case, hospitalisation and death rates are ticking upward across the US, England, South Korea and Australia – with the easing of lockdown measures in China this month already showing a massive strain on their health system.

Ideal conditions for the virus

The increase of Covid-19 in Aotearoa over the past month isn’t exactly a surprise. The surge is likely being fuelled by the complex mix of immunity-evading variants circulating across the country, low booster uptake, fading immunity, a lack of bivalent vaccines and dwindling mask wearing – a confluence of ideal conditions for the virus to spread.

In any case, an outbreak of Covid-19 is never good news, but the summer period offers its own unique set of conditions that casts a shadow of uncertainty. While warmer weather, outdoor socialising and schools and workplaces going on break offers some circuit-breaking reprieve, holiday travel and gatherings will likely only accelerate cases. Healthcare services are more limited over the Christmas period too, with chemists and GPs closing down or reducing hours over the break. Emergency services tend to be under additional strain during the period in ordinary times and so health officials have raised concerns that a summer surge could put significant pressure on already stretched staff in hospitals across the country.

Minister for Covid-19 response Ayesha Verrall said in a press release on Monday that Covid-19 settings will remain unchanged over the summer period. “Ahead of summer, we are encouraging New Zealanders to take simple precautions to keep a lid on Covid-19 and ensure our hard working health workers get the break they deserve,” Verrall said. Those precautions included following the isolation rules, continuing to do RAT tests, wearing masks, staying up to date with vaccinations and taking antiviral medication when eligible. 

The Green Party is critical of the government’s response in the face of the surge in cases. In a press release, Teanau Tuiono, Green Party spokesperson for the Covid-19 response, said a summer Covid plan was needed. “Right now, the government should be gearing up for a massive summer Covid communications campaign, not just sending out a media release and hoping for the best,” he said. “Over the last 12 months, we have moved away from collective public health messaging to messaging Covid as a matter of individual responsibility.”

The forecast might look bleak, especially when you consider the ongoing risks of long-Covid and the unknowns surrounding reinfections. But the predicted numbers don’t have to be an inevitability: a plethora of tools, like masking, testing and vaccinations are at our disposal to keep each other safe. 

What can you do to reduce the risk? 

• Wear a good quality respirator mask in public spaces that are indoors or crowded
• When possible, make plans for outdoor activities: al fresco lunches, picnics at the beach, bush walks
• Take a RAT before attending events and don’t be afraid to ask guests to do the same if you’re hosting
• Ensure you’re following the instructions on RAT tests. Here are some helpful tips on how to do a RAT correctly. Anecdotally, I’ve heard of RAT tests showing positive lines that are almost invisible – so use your phone torch on them or look at them outside to make sure you’re not missing any sneaky faint lines
• Stay at home if you’re feeling unwell, and take a RAT
• Have a holiday plan (ensure you have prescriptions, masks, RAT tests and anything else you’ll need if you get Covid-19 while on holiday and need to isolate where you are)
• Ensure you’re up to date with your vaccines and boosters
• Take antiviral medication if you test positive and you’re eligible