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Leading public health academics argue other issues have drowned out the core problems Three Waters was designed to address (Image: Archi Banal)
Leading public health academics argue other issues have drowned out the core problems Three Waters was designed to address (Image: Archi Banal)

The BulletinDecember 2, 2022

The public health case for Three Waters

Leading public health academics argue other issues have drowned out the core problems Three Waters was designed to address (Image: Archi Banal)
Leading public health academics argue other issues have drowned out the core problems Three Waters was designed to address (Image: Archi Banal)

Six public health experts mount their case for Three Waters with a reminder that the genesis of the reforms was a campylobacteriosis outbreak that killed four people, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday morning, sign up here.

 

Public health experts mount case for Three Waters

Six public health experts from the University of Otago have published a new article in the New Zealand Medical Journal (subscriber only) making the case for the Three Waters reform on the basis that it will “more robustly, and efficiently, improve the protection of public health and uphold the right to clean, safe water.” The authors, including Nick Wilson and Michael Baker, argue anti-co-governance rhetoric, concerns around privatisation and loss of local control, and alternative reform models have dominated the public discourse and drowned out the core issues the reforms were designed to address. The article starts with a reminder that the genesis of the reforms was the campylobacteriosis outbreak in 2016 that made 8,000 people sick, hospitalised 58 and killed four people.

Entrenchment provision could just be scrubbed

It’s a timely reminder of what’s at stake and arrives at a juncture where things have become very convoluted. The recent entrenchment provision issue, and what’s come to light since it was revealed last week, has added contention where perhaps there didn’t need to be any. The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan writes (paywalled) that it’s “slightly ridiculous” to refer the matter back to parliament’s Business Committee, when “all that really needs to happen is for the bill to be referred back to the Committee of the Whole stage, where the offending clause could be scrubbed.” He argues the referral to the Business Committee move “is a face-saving climbdown for Labour.”

The rush to get it done

Newsroom’s Jo Moir confirmed last week that the second tranche of legislation to complete the reforms is due in parliament before Christmas. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie (paywalled) breaks down the rush to get it done, writing that “if it’s not introduced before Christmas, the legislation would risk not being passed before the general election.” As Smellie notes, the June regulatory impact statement, published this week, highlighted how tight the timeframe was becoming even then.

Election-year halt on co-governance work

Moir has also followed up on her story about co-governance, first published in October. This is specifically in relation to the government’s response to the United Nations’ Declaration Plan which the then-National government signed us up to in 2010. In October, minister for Māori affairs Willie Jackson said he was uncomfortable with about 20% of what had been proposed and had asked the governance group to go back and try again. Jackson is now indicating that an election-year halt may be put on that co-governance work. Jackson told Newsroom he was “increasingly less convinced it was the right time to be pushing ahead with the work.”

Keep going!
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)

The BulletinDecember 1, 2022

House prices are falling – isn’t that what we want?

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief (Getty Images)

A year ago, the overpriced housing market was the number one concern for New Zealanders. Now, it’s “doom and gloom” as prices fall. One economist says falling prices should be a relief, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday morning, sign up here.

 

The difference a year makes

Congratulations everyone, we’ve made it to the last month of the year. And what a difference a year makes. An Ipsos poll had the price of housing at the top of the list of things most concerning us in October last year. The national average house price climbed over the million dollar mark in November 2021. Building consents hit record highs in September that year. According to Stats NZ figures released yesterday, October 2022’s residential housing consent numbers were the lowest they’ve been this year, (apart from quiet January). New figures out from Corelogic this morning have the national average house price at $958,622 for November 2022.

Forecast drop in prices “a relief” – economist

As a new-ish homeowner who plans to never move again, I still have enough muscle memory to recall how hopeless it felt last year. Taking into account the general rule about the correlation between house prices and how wealthy we feel, rising interest rates and broader talk of a recession, the prolific doom and gloom headlines about falling house prices can still feel a bit odd to me. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said something yesterday that I feel like we haven’t heard much off and that’s that most New Zealanders will see a forecasted drop in house prices as a relief. The bank’s wage adjusted forecast house price drop of 32% would bring us to 10% below pre-pandemic levels.

The generational wealth gap

New research out today from economist Shamubeel Eaqub continues to point to a big generational wealth gap. A child born in 2000, will earn on average $50k less over their lifetime than someone born 30 years earlier. “We told ourselves that increasing house prices was a good thing and just let it happen without building enough houses. We chose to massively underinvest in social housing so that people that become poor become homeless. We made our children poorer,” says Eaqub​. Even as prices fall, debt-servicing costs rise. Saving for a home deposit is 19% harder than it was five years ago but is improving according to a new online tool released last week by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.

Mixed bag for renters, those needing social housing and iwi

Homeowners aren’t the whole of the picture when we discuss housing in New Zealand and it’s a mixed bag at the moment for renters, those on the public housing waiting list and iwi wanting to develop housing on ancestral land. Rents rose by 4.1% nationwide in the year to October but there are signs growth in rent prices is easing. The number of people on social housing waiting lists has fallen by just under 7% in six months. And here’s a good news story to end from Stuff’s Te Aorewa Rolleston. Matamata-Piako District Council is proposing to make changes to its district plan to enable papakāinga to be developed in the area more freely.

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