US midterm elections don’t typically gain as much attention as presidential elections but there’s a lot of stake in 2022 for the US, and foreign policy and climate change implications for the rest of the world, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday morning, sign up here.
What are the midterms and how might results make Biden’s remaining term difficult?
Where to start with the US midterm elections? To kick off, the New York Times has this very good explainer. To summarise –the Democrats currently control both the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Senate. Predictions suggest the Republicans will take the HoR and the Senate could go either way. Loss of control of either will make the next two years of Joe Biden’s term very difficult. Election day is November 8 (US time) and campaigning is in its final stages with Biden and Donald Trump both out on the trail. The Washington Post analysed one of Trump’s rally speeches last week in Iowa, finding it contained 58 falsehoods. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk has endorsed the Republicans. More than 40 million Americans have voted early, pointing to the potential of record turnout and higher polarisation among voters.
The key races
Control in both the HoR and the Senate will likely be decided by a few tight races. Catherine McGregor has taken a look at some of the key races, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Ohio. Not all of the high profile races are for Congress seats. There are gubernatorial elections, as well as numerous other state and local elections. Former TV anchor Kari Lake is running for governor in Arizona. There is speculation that if Trump were to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, Lake could well be a pick for vice-president on his ticket. This profile of Lake from The Atlantic is well worth a read and positions her as the new leading lady of Trumpism.
Estimates that up to half of Republican candidates are election deniers
Lake is one of a number of candidates who’ve been described as “election deniers”, perpetuating the idea that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen”. CBS estimates up to half of the Republican candidates for the midterms are election deniers. Fred Wertheimer, of non-partisan group Democracy 21, says “if election deniers lose their elections by narrow margins we can expect that they will reject the results and refuse to accept them”. Following the attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband, the fear of violence breaking out if some of these candidates lose races and refuse to concede is very real.
Why the midterms matter for the US and for us
The Guardian has a very good outline of some of the big stakes issues. The results will have a hefty bearing on the 2024 presidential race and midterms are historically unkind to incumbent presidents. Biden may face pressure not to run in 2024 depending on the results. Globally, the outcome of the midterms could impact the support being provided to Ukraine. The Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has said Congress would no longer “write a blank check to Ukraine” if the party takes control. Reporters at Foreign Policy talk through the likely impact of results on US foreign policy here. Five major climate change initiatives are also at stake. The US is currently the second largest contributor to global emissions. The biggie, the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides for the largest investment in clean energy in US history, should be safe, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses to dismantle it.