How accurate are NZ's polls?

06 Nov 2026

Politics

Now You Know, season two, episode 80

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How are polls conducted in New Zealand and, looking back over the last 30 years, how often have they got it right?

In a piece for Newsroom, Murray Campbell from the Research Association of New Zealand writes, "A ... thorough and independent assessment of the last 10 elections from 1996 to 2023, conducted by the Overhang, found that the polls 'on average, across all (polling) firms, years, and parties, were out by 1.3 percentage point per party versus the election result.' ... This is a remarkably accurate and consistent prediction of sometimes volatile behaviour."

So why does it so often feels like polls get it wrong? How do they even conduct these polls? And how accurate are the polls this year?

Filmed and edited by Isaiah Tour.
Written and presented by Robbie Nicol.
Made with the support of NZ On Air.

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