A new poll has the two biggest political parties neck and neck – but National, with the support of Act, could form a government.
The latest TVNZ Kantar Public Poll has National steady on 37%, with Labour up one to 34%, Act and the Greens on 9% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%. New Zealand First is on 3%, but without an electorate seat would not return to parliament on this result.
That would give National 49 seats and with Act’s 12 would be able to form a government. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would amass a combined 59 seats – just short of the magic number.
While the result isn’t great for Labour, it’s the first time the party hasn’t dropped in the TVNZ poll since December 2020 when it was riding high post-election on 53%.
This latest poll comes after scandals for both National and Labour, with both the Sam Uffindell bullying report and the claims levelled by rogue former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma. It also follows the death of the Queen and the return of prime minister Jacinda Ardern to the international circuit, with high profile visits to both London and New York.
Other major events over the past seven weeks (since the last TVNZ poll) include the KiwiSaver tax flip flop, major flooding at the tip of the South Island and the scrapping of politically controversial Covid-19 regulations.
“You’ve seen very recently some significant changes that have been made, only a few weeks ago, that I think give cause for optimism in the future,” said Ardern of the end of Covid restrictions. “For instance, the fact we have certainty for the first time in three years coming into summer.”
In the preferred prime minister poll, Jacinda Ardern is ahead on 30% with Christopher Luxon on 21% (down one point from the last poll).
When those surveyed were given the option between just Ardern and Luxon as prime minister, the incumbent PM gained 47% while Luxon was not far behind on 41%.