After years of consistent decline, NZ On Air’s crucial survey shows big tech sliding, and local media stabilising.

The war was meant to be over. New Zealand on Air has been asking “Where are the Audiences?” for a decade now, and the answer has always been the same. Namely that more of them than ever are heading away from domestic platforms like linear TV, radio, print and news sites, and towards international platforms like YouTube, Facebook, TikTok and Spotify. Last year’s survey was particularly chilling – showing that 60+ audiences, the last loyalists, were moving online in a big way.

This year should have been the end. It’s been the worst 12 months in living memory for local media, with an advertising slump leading to eye-watering losses registered by TVNZ and MediaWorks, while WBD shocked the country by shutting down Newshub. 

Instead, the 2024 edition of Where Are the Audiences reveals a reversal – the first since I started covering the data in 2016. This year, it’s the big tech platforms that are losing ground. A few stunning nuggets: the biggest decline in audience of any large platform is Netflix, which slid from 42% daily usage to 38%. Social media and user-generated video content on the likes of TikTok and YouTube declined by 5% for those aged 15-39, while both radio and total TV audiences went up.

To be clear, none of this comes close to erasing a decade of breathtaking gains for the big tech titans. But in the context of this survey these are stark changes to a narrative that has been pretty stuck for some time. It suggests that we might have stabilised at a new normal – or even that in a push to turn all platforms into vertical video, the likes of Meta might have started to alienate some audiences (even as their largely untaxed financial returns continue unabated).

Here are 10 takeaways from this fascinating 2024 edition of Where are the Audiences, written by Duncan Greive with help from Liam Rātana – hear them both discussing these findings on a special edition of The Fold.

1. Could this be the end of the great digital migration?

The above chart combines all audiences 15+, and condenses platforms into various buckets. What’s remarkable is how little change we see at that level. The margin for error for the survey overall is 2.6% – just four of 12 categories had statistically significant changes. And while TV was one of those to fall, it was cancelled out by a rise for broadcast radio. SVOD (subscription video on demand – the likes of Netflix and Amazon Prime) and social video were flat, combined, after years of huge gains. 

It’s too early to say this is a new normal – but as a narrative adjustment, to have total local TV essentially level with the likes of YouTube and Meta is the best news the local media industry has had in years. / Duncan Greive

2. SVOD is sliding backwards

After Netflix proved a huge market for subscription video on demand, recent years saw a flood of powerful new multinational entrants, including Disney and Apple, while Sky launched an excellent local service in Neon. The early 2020s saw massive investments into content, and a belief that a new version of cable (or Sky, in a local context) was being built. Over the past year rising interest rates and pernicious inflation have created a very different business environment for streamers, which have also had to battle a lengthy strike in Hollywood.

They have responded by commissioning fewer shows, putting ads on the services, selling more to free streamers like Tubi, and raising prices. WATA 2024 suggests that consumers have responded to a pricier and poorer quality product by turning it off. It makes sense – but it’s still shocking to see. TV has declined too – but retains a handy lead for total minutes on both SVOD and social/UGC. / DG

3. YouTube has solidified its position as the everything platform 

The video giant continues to dominate, with a daily reach of 42% for video consumption, overtaking traditional television channels and other digital platforms. Despite slight declines among younger audiences (also seen by TikTok and Snapchat), YouTube’s reach among the 40-59 age group has grown, maintaining its stronghold across demographics.

Its versatility is highlighted by its significant role in both video and music streaming, making it the most popular platform for discovering new content, including podcasts and music. As New Zealanders increasingly turn to digital media, YouTube’s ability to cater to a wide range of content needs, from entertainment to education, cements its status as the go-to platform for diverse media consumption. / Liam Rātana

4. Is social video really more popular? Or just more prevalent?

One way of reading this survey is that shortform vertical video is a rare bright spot for the big tech platforms. It has risen markedly for those aged 40-59, and is stable for over 60s – each group is more likely to be on Facebook than the 50% of New Zealanders aged under 40. But it’s hard to know how much of the change is those demographics actively seeking out more video, versus having the products actively changed to serve more lucrative ad formats.

This is because 2022 marked the year Mark Zuckerberg responded to the threat of TikTok by commanding his employees to radically shift the likes of Instagram and Facebook to show more video. Younger users are watching video less frequently, according to WATA – only future surveys will indicate whether this is a blip or a plateau for shortform. / DG

5. Have we reached peak content?

Summing up a survey this vast in one slide is impossible – yet the one above comes close to capturing the vibe of media consumption stuck in place. Of the 14 largest video platforms across all mediums, nine are either flat or declining. These include some of the most powerful names in global tech – YouTube, Facebook, TikTok and Netflix. The biggest gainer? A plucky local contender named ThreeNow, a just reward for not being munted any more. / DG

6. Against all odds, terrestrial radio makes a leap

It’s easy to make fun of radio, with its surveys that magically show a tiny bit of growth every single time – especially given that Where Are the Audiences tends to show the opposite. However in 2024, the great cockroach of media defied all obituaries by showing healthy growth. There is a slight mystery here, given that total time spent listening is dead flat (some other trends, like ZB moving past RNZ, are present in both WATA and radio’s own surveys). Either way, given that so many are steady or backwards, radio has every reason to be thrilled with this result. / DG

7. The young and the old, not so different

Of course they aren’t truly alike. Younger New Zealanders are much more likely to watch social video, SVOD, do online gaming, stream music and listen to podcasts. Older New Zealanders are more likely to watch linear TV, listen to broadcast radio and  – this is interesting, and very challenging for funders – watch New Zealand TV on demand, like TVNZ+ and ThreeNow. 

However, as these two charts reveal, the pace of change has slowed right down. And in several intriguing areas, the direction of travel is the same – SVOD and UGC flat or declining, music streaming slipping back, radio making gains. After years of watching generations wildly diverge, there’s something heartening about seeing them coming together (a little, anyway). / DG

8. A fascinating window into news ratings – and trust

This survey’s most valuable quality is its cross-medium comparisons. These are fascinating all over the place – but particularly in news. Both TV and digital boast huge audiences – but which is hugest? And how do those audiences feel about the respective products? There’s a partial answer here. TVNZ and Stuff come out in a tie here for audience scale, both nominated by nearly half of respondents as part of their regular news diet. This is a handy lead over the NZ Herald’s 35% – though Nielsen digital ratings show the Herald and Stuff platforms near a dead heat online.  

Trust is a different story – with TVNZ nominated as most trusted by twice as many as the Herald or Stuff. Is that down to the more traditional medium, or more austere style? Regardless, it’s an exceptional result for TVNZ, which was due a dose of good news too. / DG

9. Where are the funders?

The rise in popularity of platforms such as Crunchyroll – which was equal with Apple TV for Māori audiences – highlights evolving media consumption habits, particularly among younger audiences. The anime-specialist platform’s popularity demonstrates a shift away from traditional television towards specialised, on-demand content. 

While consumption habits are changing, there is a noticeable lag in where agencies such as Te Māngai Paho and NZ On Air allocate their funds. While these agencies talk a big game about prioritising digital-first content, a large percentage of “contestable” funding remains effectively preallocated to continuing legacy programmes with dwindling audiences and reach, still built for linear television or broadcast radio. Despite the bounceback, a reckoning remains due. / LR

10. Where are the advertisers?

At an event called Media Spotlight last month, a pair of provocative presentations suggested that advertising spending had flowed too hard and fast into big tech platforms. The thesis was twofold: firstly, that advertisers had outrun audiences into those environments; and secondly, that the emphasis on the immediate returns of performance marketing had led to a profound neglect of the “future demand” (as Previously Unavailable’s James Hurman calls it), generated by brand advertising. The hard times at domestic media are seen as in part attributable to this phenomenon.

This research has become highly scrutinised as a kind of neutral referee, when many others, especially the tech platforms, mark their own homework. On that basis, this report should serve as a moment for reflection – a marker that the narrative around audience behaviour isn’t set in stone, and potentially a signal that saturation might have been reached with ad volumes on search and social. After a decade of one-way traffic, this is a fascinating break, and those who have followed it closely cannot help but pause to absorb its implications. / DG