Labour loyalty runs deep in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, new poll shows

The Greens have surged in the party vote but Labour stays on top.

This story was originally published by Te Ao Māori News.

Labour looks set to hold its only Māori electorate seat, as Cushla Tangaere-Manuel comes out on top in the latest Whakaata Māori Curia Poll.

Current Ikaroa-Rāwhiti MP Cushla Tangaere-Manuel leads the race with 40%, followed by Te Pāti Māori’s Hayley Maxwell at 19% and the Greens’ Heather Te Au-Skipworth at 15%.

However, 20% of voters remain unsure, while 6% selected “other”, indicating a preference for another candidate.

Excluding unsure voters raises Tangaere-Manuel’s support to 54%, followed by Maxwell at 25% and Te Au-Skipworth at 21%.

Support for Tangaere-Manuel is also reflected in her performance rating, with 38% of constituents saying she has done a good job, 28% rating her performance as average, 26% unsure, and just 7% believing she has done a poor job.

The results come ahead of the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti candidates’ debate tonight, which will be moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman. It will be broadcast live at 7pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.

The debate will explore major issues across the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate in the eastern North Island, stretching from East Cape south through to Wairarapa and down to the Hutt Valley.

Whakaata Māori commissioned the latest poll as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series.

Curia Market Research conducted it from September 28 to October 8. Curia also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older enrolled in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.

Labour support stays strong

To date, Whakaata Māori has polled in five of the seven Māori electorates. Up until now, all of the electorates had shown a tight race for the party vote between Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

However, the party vote in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti shows the electorate remains red hard.

Labour sits at the top with 41% of the Party vote, the Greens on 25%, while Te Pāti Māori sit low on 10%. However, 13% of voters are still unsure which party to support.

Despite Labour continuing to enjoy strong support among East Coast voters, its support has dipped from the 56% it received in the 2023 election, while the Greens have seen a surge, rising from 7% in 2023.

Other parties that saw a decrease from their 2023 results to now were Te Pāti Māori, at 25%, and National, at 4%.

Cost of living tops local concerns, but te tiriti the biggest priority

Like many other Māori electorates, the cost of living remains the biggest local issue for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti voters, with 42% identifying it as their main concern.

Housing and healthcare follow at 10% each, while 6% selected “other” and 5% identified Te Tiriti o Waitangi. A further 8% were unsure about their biggest local concern.

However, while te tiriti ranks lower among local concerns, it emerges as the electorate’s top priority for the next government when it comes to improving outcomes for Māori, with 38% identifying it as their main priority.

This is followed by reducing poverty and homelessness at 19%, improving health and education outcomes at 16%, supporting mental health and addiction services at 11%, and addressing Māori unemployment at 7%. A further 8% identified other issues as their top priority.