Hūhana Lyndon leads tight contest for Te Tai Tokerau

Green Party candidate Hūhana Lyndon could be set to make history in the Māori electorate seats as she leads the race for Te Tai Tokerau according to a new poll.

This story was originally published by Te Ao Māori News.

No Green Party candidate has ever won in the Māori electorates, but that could change come November 7 as voters head to the ballot box.

An exclusive Whakaata Māori-Curia poll shows the Green Party list MP at 24% support, ahead of Labour list MP Willow-Jean Prime at 18%, Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards at 17%, and incumbent Te Tai Tokerau Party MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi at 12%.

Although Lyndon leads the candidate vote, the race remains open, with 22% of respondents unsure who they would support and another 7% selecting “other”.

Whakaata Māori commissioned the poll as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series, and Curia Market Research conducted it from 5 October to 15 October.

The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older enrolled in Te Tai Tokerau, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.

Labour leads party vote

When it comes to the party vote, Labour has maintained its traditional lead by scooping up the largest share of support at 27%. However, the Green Party surge has seen it follow closely behind on 25%. Te Pāti Māori registered 11%, NZ First 6%, and National 4%.

While Kapa-Kingi received 12% support in the candidate vote, her party has not attracted the same level of support, registering just 3%, tied with the Opportunity Party.

Cost of living tops voters’ concerns

Similar to other Māori electorates surveyed, the cost of living is the biggest issue facing Te Tai Tokerau voters, with 34% identifying it as their main concern.

Housing follows on 14%, while 9% identified healthcare and 7% selected jobs. Meanwhile, 5% of Te Tai Tokerau voters identified Te Tiriti o Waitangi as their biggest local issue.

Te tiriti and Waitangi commemorations

Voters were also asked whether He Whakaputanga (the 1835 Declaration of Independence) should be recognised alongside Te Tiriti o Waitangi as a constitutional document of Aotearoa New Zealand.

A significant majority of 70% supported the idea, while 9% opposed it and 21% were unsure.

He Whakaputanga and Te Tiriti o Waitangi were both signed in Te Tai Tokerau, which is also home to the annual Waitangi commemorations attended by politicians from across the country.

In recent years, tensions have emerged during the commemorations, with protests directed at members of the National, ACT and NZ First coalition Government.

Voters were also asked whether all MPs should be welcomed at Waitangi commemorations, regardless of their views on te tiriti.

Nearly half (48%) agreed, while 17% disagreed.

A further 13% were unsure, while 22% said it depended on the MP.

The results come ahead of the Te Tai Tokerau candidates’ debate Tuesday night, which will be moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman. It will be broadcast live at 7pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.