Two opinion polls at the back end of the week put a revived Labour under Chris Hipkins ahead by a cigarette paper over National under Christopher Luxon. Across our polling snapshot of the five latest published polls, the gap between the two biggest parties is about as tight as it gets, at a fifth of one per cent.

A Curia Poll for the Taxpayers' Union, from the first week of March, has National and Act combined on 44.1% ahead of Labour and Green on 41.2%. Roy Morgan's newly published February poll has the presumptive governing blocs neck and neck, on 45.5% apiece.

If that all sounds mostly uniform, bear in mind this: the new Curia poll puts the Greens on 5.7%. The new Roy Morgan poll puts the Greens on 12.5%.

Two newsletters arrived within six minutes of one another, both from major banks, both predicting that the New Zealand economy shrank in the October-December quarter. The official data arrives next Thursday, but if the forecasts are correct it would represent the first quarter of negative growth. One more and we would be officially in recession.

“From building work to manufacturing sales and retail trade, the data point to weak activity,” wrote KiwiBank’s Mary Jo Vergara. “The cost-of-living crisis, the fall in property values, and the rise in interest rates are weighing on household demand. And weak consumption points to weak production.” She cited the recovery in tourism as a lone bright spot, and said that while the rebuild from Gabrielle might shift forecasts for the year upward, “the RBNZ’s sheer determination to constrain demand cannot be discounted… [So] our working base case still involves a (shallow) recession this year.”

ANZ’s Miles Workman meanwhile predicted the same 0.3% contraction, attributing it to the inevitable byproduct of “the whopper pace of growth in Q3”., which saw the economy grow by a massive 2% quarter-on-quarter. Those aren’t the only bad economic vibes. Workman also noted that “the annual current account deficit is expected to widen to 8.1% of GDP – the widest deficit since these data began in the late 1980s.” This means that New Zealand is spending more than it’s creating – a difference which needs to be made up by borrowing.

TV personality-turned-politician Tamati Coffey is leaving parliament and retiring from politics after the upcoming election. The Labour list MP, based in the Waiariki region, says the birth of his second child has caused him to reassess his lifestyle. “I’ve reprioritised where I want to put my energy and that’s into our two kids, Tūtānekai and Taitimu,” he says.

Coffey entered politics after a successful television career hosting news and entertainment shows What Now, Seven Sharp and New Zealand’s Got Talent. He’s most widely known for his five-year stint as a weatherman and roving reporter on Breakfast, and for winning Dancing with the Stars in 2009. With his partner Tim Smith, Coffey ran Rotorua cocktail bar Ponsonby Road and eatery Our House until selling both in 2022.

He entered politics in 2014, joining the Labour party and winning the Waiariki seat in 2017, before losing it in 2020. In a statement released today, Coffey lists surrogacy reforms, increasing state and emergency housing options in Rotorua, launching free healthy lunches at Kaitao Intermediate and overseeing a revitalised Taupō town centre as his biggest achievements.

“While I entered 2017, campaigning hard to help tackle our local housing crisis, we’ve since seen record investment in Māori and locally-led housing solutions, including papkainga from Rotorua to the Western Bay,” he says. “We have delivered for Waiariki.”

Coffey will retire from politics at the end of this term. He will continue as Labour’s List MP based in Waiariki until the election on October 14.

The greatest aviation mystery of the modern age gets the true crime Netflix treatment this week with the debut of MH370: The Plane That Disappeared. What happened to the infamous 2014 Malaysia Airlines flight to Kuala Lumpur? Was it an accident, or something more sinister? This three-part series attempts to get to the truth of it all, and while critics say it focuses a little too much on conspiracy theories, it remains a compelling watch.

Elsewhere, Rain Dogs (Neon) is this week’s other big new release. Daisy May Cooper’s caper about a single mum trying to keep her head above water has been getting rave reviews (“Demands to be played on repeat,” says TIME). Neon also has season two of Perry Mason, the period legal saga, while Netflix unveils a Luther movie, part two of season four of You (read our review here) and the debut of the South Korean drama The Glory.

If you’re heading out to theatres this week, you have several options. For the blockbusters, you can pick either of the super-intense and gory Scream VI, or you can head to 65, Adam Driver’s epic sci-fi dinosaur survival story. Yes, it sounds like a lot and it’s had mixed reviews, but Driver has plenty of fans who’ll watch anything he does. If neither of those are for you, Triangle of Sadness follows a group of influencers stuck on cruise ship after a storm and sounds like a fun time. And Broker is a South Korean film about an illegal baby adoption service getting rave reviews. They’re playing in select theatres now.

Finally, don’t forget about Monday, when there are two big events. First up is the 95th Academy Awards . TVNZ 2 has all the glitz, the glamour – and hopefully no more slaps – starting at 1pm. (Go, Tár!) You can follow that up with the finale of The Last of Us, which airs on Neon and brings season one of HBO’s apocalyptic story to a close. If you haven’t played the game, and refuse to use Google to spoil it, you’re in for one wild hour of television.

This is an excerpt from The Spinoff’s pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here.

Managing finances in the current economic environment isn’t easy, and there are many reasons why you might be facing uncertainty financially. If you do have concerns, want some advice, or you just want to take the opportunity to talk about your finances, get in touch with an ANZ expert. 

ANZ Home Loan Coaches are there to help – whether you’re looking to get ahead, or to get through. Keep your home loan goals on track with ANZ. 

Find out how ANZ can help with managing your home loan here.

Newshub’s 8pm bulletin on the TV channel Eden will not return this year, despite launching less than 12 months ago.

Hosted by Rebecca Wright, who also co-hosts political programme Newshub Nation, the live 8pm bulletin debuted in March last year, coinciding with the launch of new Warner Bros Discovery channels Eden and Rush. It went off-air for the Christmas break but has so far not returned to screens in 2023.

Googling Newshub Live at 8pm still brings up a link to the programme, but clicking it brings you to an empty page.

A spokesperson for Warner Bros Discovery confirmed to The Spinoff that the nightly bulletin wouldn’t be returning. “There are no employee displacements as a result of this change and Rebecca Wright is now presenting Newshub Late on Three,” they said.

It was previously reported by ScreenScribe that the bulletin would be back on air in late February.

Is the environment changing faster than we can adapt to? The emissions trading scheme incentivised livestock farmers to rid their land of animals in favour of converting it for pine forestry. However, the silt and leftover slash used to make those forests are the same things that wrecked havoc on horticultural lands during Cyclone Gabrielle. Alison Dewes and John Burke are two farmers who feel they’ve adopted a much better, and more sustainable farming practice – converting some of their grass paddocks back into native forest and wetlands.

They talk with Bernard Hickey in the latest episode of When the Facts Change about the benefits and hidden profits that have come with this decision, and how government could best write policy for farmers.

Up to 50,000 teachers will strike next Thursday in the sector’s biggest industrial action since 2019. The strikes have been organised by the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA), representing secondary school teachers, and New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI), covering primary and kindergarten teachers.

Both unions say teachers are striking for better pay, higher staffing numbers and more funding for their schools. Most schools will close on Thursday as a result of the strikes, and nationwide protest marches are planned.

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The three year working holiday visa between New Zealand and the United Kingdom, negotiated last year alongside a free trade deal with the country, will now come into force at the start of July.

Prime minister Chris Hipkins said it will help support businesses through global labour shortages.

It was previously hoped, reported Newsroom earlier in the year, that the agreement would be in place by the end of the year.

Hipkins said the extended visa would allow those already in the country to remain here longer, adding to the pool of available workers. “The 4,200 visa holders from the UK currently in New Zealand will now be able to extend their right to remain and work here for at least a year longer,” he said.

“The new conditions will also see the age of eligibility increase from 30 to 35 years, which will see greater numbers now eligible for the scheme, all of who have open work rights here now for up to three years under the changes.”

The new scheme goes both ways, meaning New Zealanders will have the same rights within the UK.

The visa was first announced by former prime minister Jacinda (and former British PM Boris Johnson) during a meeting in London last July. At the time, Ardern said the changes reflected “the depth of the NZ-UK relationship”. Hipkins reiterated this today (in fact, his press release includes that exact phrase).

He added that the traditional “OE” was an invaluable experience for many New Zealanders. “It is great to provide young people in both our countries with more opportunities to work and live alongside one another,” he said.