We’re ticking ever closer to this election campaign being over (unless all this talk of a second election ends up coming true…)

Here are some of the day’s top stories.

• ChatGPT could transform politics, and not for the better.
• The war in Israel has deep roots and may spread.
• Election policy explainers in two minutes: the wai and whenua policies and the welfare, equity and representation policies.
• Muted response for Hipkins at Auckland mall ahead of final campaign stretch.
• Our latest door knocking dispatch: How campaigning reunited Efeso Collins with a primary school crush.
• Second election ‘unlikely’, says Luxon after accused of threatening New Zealanders with it.

We’ll jump back online if news breaks this afternoon. Otherwise, back tomorrow.

After a week of advance voting and less than a week left until election day, 607,255 people have cast their ballots.

82,524 people voted on Sunday.

Advance voting numbers for this election are still trailing 2020 numbers. After nine days of advance voting in 2020, 1,157,209 votes had been cast as of October 8, 2020.

The orange line below shows how early voting compares with recent elections.

A byelection will be held in Port Waikato after this Saturday’s election following the passing of Act’s candidate Neil Christensen.

As Christensen died after the start of the early voting period, the Electoral Commission said that only party votes in the seat will be counted and a byelection will take place to determine a local MP at a later date.

“We are aware of the situation and send our condolences to the candidate’s family. Voting in the General Election continues, including for Port Waikato voters,” the chief electoral officer Karl Le Quesne said in a statement.

“Your party vote will be counted and contribute to the overall results of the General Election. Your vote is important. You will have an opportunity to vote for a member of parliament for the Port Waikato electorate when a by-election is held.”

Act’s leader David Seymour paid tribute to Christensen. “I wish to pay tribute to Neil, who was an infectiously charismatic and fascinating man and was New Zealand’s only registered specialist poultry veterinarian.

“He was a dedicated member of the Act Party who will be immensely missed.”

Ahead of this weekend’s election, we asked an assortment of MPs and candidates from across the political spectrum for their favourite door knocking story. Today: Green Party hopeful and former Auckland mayoral contender Efeso Collins, who is campaigning in Panmure-Ōtāhuhu.

I really enjoy door knocking as it’s a great chance to meet people and I always go with an open mind as lots of fun things can happen. There are the odd occasions where I’ve been invited into a person’s home to have a cuppa and biscuits which is always so sweet and kind. One cool experience while out door knocking in Panmure was a person asking me to help carry their washing basket to the line and we talked about high rental costs while hanging up the washing.

Another time was when I was out in Otara and I met a woman who I went to primary school with, who I had a huge crush on back then. We haven’t seen each other in more than 35 years so it was a really good catch up.

National’s Christopher Luxon thinks it’s “unlikely” there will be a second election – but won’t say whether it was irresponsible of him to float it in the first place.

It all stemmed from concerns from National that, should a deal with Winston Peters not be reached following the election, or if the results were equal between the left and right blocs, New Zealanders may have to return to the polls.

Fronting for reporters in Canterbury, Luxon was asked multiple times whether raising the prospect of a second election was a bad idea.

“What is irresponsible is three more terms of Labour, Te Pati Maori and the Greens,” Luxon said. “We’re just highlighting that there is a lot of uncertainty in an MMP environment.”

However, he eventually added: “I think it’s pretty unlikely there’ll be a second election.”

Labour leader Chris Hipkins received a mild reception at Auckland’s Commercial Bay mall this afternoon, in scenes which contrasted starkly with the 2020 election.

The rapid fire 25 minute stroll through the swish downtown shopping centre saw the current prime minister tailed by an enthusiastic group of t-shirted Labour supporters. But few ordinary members of the public were desperate to meet Hipkins.

At the peak of “Jacindamania”, former prime minister Jacinda Ardern could hardly move for supporters in public places. While this election campaign was never going to see Hipkins out-popular his former boss, it’s seen National’s Christopher Luxon become a surprisingly adept public performer. 

Still, despite the relatively muted response today, and the fact most people he spoke to said they were already Labour voters, Hipkins said there remained a “sizeable” contingent of undecided voters ahead of this weekend’s election.

“I think the results we’ll see on election day are going to be much, much narrower than in recent polling,” he told reporters. “Our own polling shows the gap between the centre-left and the centre-right… has been narrowing consistently.”

While the election would be close, Hipkins wouldn’t say whether or not he believed a hung parliament was “likely” or not.

There was still a “good degree of momentum” behind his party heading towards Saturday. “I think there’s already been a mood change within the electorate,” said Hipkins, suggesting some people who may have been considering voting National were now flicking back to Labour.

During his brisk walkabout today, Hipkins was joined by local Labour candidates Helen White and Oscar Sims, the former of whom was encouraging members of the public to take a photo with the prime minister. A few were keen for a selfie, though many turned down the opportunity – potentially put off by the prospect of being filmed for the news.

However he was asked into a few stores by workers wanting a chat with the Labour leader and he quickly popped behind the counter at one food outlet selling pastries. For once, missed out on a sausage roll after earlier telling a member of the public that he was hoping to find one.

The National Party has condemned further threats allegedly made by gang members against party candidates.

Siva Kilari, the National candidate for Manurewa, was reportedly “threatened by a gang member who told him to tell National’s leader that he could not take power away from gangs and if he did police wouldn’t be safe”, according to the party.

National’s police spokesperson Mark Mitchell said gangs had benefited from “soft sentences” under Labour and it was clear they were encouraging followers to vote for parties on the left.

“Gangs are obviously aware of National’s policies to crack down on them and they naturally prefer being left alone by Labour,” he said.

“The number of gang members showing blatant contempt for the law on home detention means they are now responsible for almost one in every three breaches nationwide of home detention conditions. When gang members flout their home detention, more and more have no sanction at all imposed on them.”

We’re into the homestretch! Here’s where the political leaders are today.

• Labour leader Chris Hipkins is spending the day in Auckland. Fresh from wrapping his extended interview with Mike Hosking this morning, Hipkins will head to Federal Street to take part in the All Blacks experience. Later, he’ll meet with the Auckland City Mission and visit a pharmacy. He’ll then head to downtown Auckland for a walkabout.
• In the south, National’s Christopher Luxon starts the day with a walkabout in Rangiora. He’ll then front media and head to Kaiapoi. He heads back to Auckland tonight for a rally in Papatoetoe.
• Green co-leader Marama Davidson is in Dunedin where she will first visit some businesses and then later meet with students for advance voting.

Over 600 Israelis have died since Hamas launched its surprise attacks on the country, according to an Israeli government minister, who added that the toll will probably rise by “hundreds” more. Fighting is raging across Israel, and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally declared war on Hamas, setting the stage for a gigantic military offensive in Gaza.

At least 370 Palestinians have died and another 2,200 have been wounded in Israeli airstrikes so far, the Palestinian health ministry said. Israel has also stopped the supply of electricity, fuel and goods to Gaza, CNN reports. The full scale of the Israeli response remains unclear, but a military spokesperson hinted the country may try to take full control of Gaza for the first time since 2005. New Zealand has joined the global community in condemning the Hamas attacks.

Want to read The Bulletin in full? Click here to subscribe and join over 38,000 New Zealanders who start each weekday with the biggest stories in politics, business, media and culture.  

Winston Peters has hit back at the National Party over the suggestion that a second general election might be needed if consensus can’t be reached after polls close on October 14.

Over the weekend, National’s Chris Bishop warned of “a very real and growing possibility” that New Zealanders might need to go back to the polls if his party couldn’t strike a deal up with New Zealand First.

The party’s also running ads in newspapers and online that suggest there could be eight weeks of coalition talks if there is no clear winner on election night.

Appearing on Newshub’s AM this morning, Peters accused National of  “scaremongering of the worst sort”.

“When I first saw that comment by Bishop I thought someone had tried to set me up,” Peters said. “He wouldn’t have said that.”

Peters said that negotiations in 2017 took just 11 days (it was 11 days after the special votes had been counted, meaning it was several weeks after polls closed). It was “deplorable” for National to be running these lines after people had already voted, said Peters.

Labour MPs have been capitalising on National’s concern about needing NZ First, such as Ayesha Verrall who shared this tweet showing Christopher Luxon in Peters’ blazer pocket.

On Newstalk ZB this morning, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was asked about a rumour that he would step down on election night in order to allow his party to strike up a deal with Peters and NZ First if needed to form a government. Hipkins said that wasn’t true and it was a collective decision to rule out Peters.

While facing reporter questions yesterday, Hipkins doubled/tripled down on that collective decision. “I made it clear months ago we wouldn’t be working with Winston Peters or New Zealand First,” he said. “I’m not the one talking about an extra general election. That’s Christopher Luxon’s threat to New Zealanders.”