With tonight’s Newshub poll showing a surge in support for National, and a comfortable lead for the right bloc, here’s how the recent polling landscape looks.

The National Party could form a government with Act – and comfortably – according to tonight’s Newshub Reid Research poll.

The first Newshub poll of the election campaign, it takes into account recent policy announcements by the major parties, including National’s tax plan and Labour’s pledge of free dental care for under 30s.

National’s on 40.9%, up 4.3 points and the first time its been back in the 40s for some time. Labour has plummeted down 5.5 points to 26.8%, the lowest its been since Andrew Little was leader and roughly in line with the recent TVNZ poll.

It’s the latest in a string of poll results showing a change of government come October 14, with Newshub’s political editor Jenna Lynch describing this as Labour’s “crisis poll” and the start of a “death spiral” for the party. Christopher Luxon, meanwhile, will be popping the champagne – he was beaming ear to ear during an interview with Lynch.

The Greens have jumped up 2.7% to 12.3%, while Act’s run of conspiracy theory candidates pulling out of its list look to have lost it support, down two points down to 10.1%. New Zealand First still wouldn’t be back in parliament on these numbers, but it’s close: up half a point to 4.6%. And Te Pāti Māori lands on 3.1% – assuming it retains an electorate it would return to parliament.

In seats, that would give the right bloc 66 seats with National taking 53 and Act landing 13. On the left, Labour’s caucus would be slimmed down to 34, with the Greens bringing in 16 MPs and Te Pāti Māori four.

And the race for preferred prime minister has closed too. Both Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are on 22.5%, with Hipkins losing steam and Luxon picking up over 6%. But that still means over half of polled voters don’t like either leader.

Here’s a quick look back at some stories from today in the world of politics.

• Dave Dobbyn’s manager steps in over use of “Loyal” in post promoting Liz Gunn party, reports Toby Manhire.
• Steak or mince? Potential PMs’ pie preferences presented
• Green co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw pop by the Gone by Lunchtime studios. Listen here.
• Luxon pushes back on ‘speculation’ over minority National-Act coalition
• On The Spinoff: Should there be Māori seats on Auckland Council?

I’m clocking off for now, but will be back to bring you the Newshub poll results at about 6pm. If you’re in Auckland, try and stay dry – it looks like the middle of the night right now.

And, of course, if any other news breaks this afternoon, our team will jump back into the live updates. Bye for now.

Just an important reminder that Newshub has a new political poll out tonight at 6pm. According to political editor Jenna Lynch, it’s “unmissable” (which if you’re a political nerd, is how any poll could be described).

We’ll have all the details for you later on tonight.

If you are likely to vote for the next prime minister based entirely on their pie preference, you now have all you need ahead of election day (if you want to know more about policy, I highly recommend the aptly named Policy.nz)

The Herald’s Claire Trevett went for a drive around Upper Hutt with Labour’s Chris Hipkins, which included an all-important visit to the Bun Factory for a pie (being Upper Hutt born and raised, I can’t believe I’ve never crossed paths with Hipkins at this particular store).

His pie of choice? A steak, bacon and cheese pie, which is then eaten in the car. You can read more on that here.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail further up the coast today, National’s Christopher Luxon opted for a visit to Rays Pies and Fries. According to a reporter on the ground, there were 21 flavours on offer – but Luxon opted for a true classic: plain mince.

In a great added detail, the Herald reported: “[Luxon] then gave the media the customary first bite on camera. He was very complimentary but a quick check found that Luxon’s bite hadn’t reached the mince snd was all pastry”. All you need to know, and a photo of that first bite, is in this live blog.

Launching today with its first two episodes, Dear Jane is a five-part podcast series for The Spinoff, exploring the impact of a sexual relationship between a young teenage girl and her adult youth group leader.

Listen to episode one below and subscribe to Dear Jane on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or anywhere else you find your podcasts.

Dear Jane was made with the support of NZ On Air.

Resources:

If this series brings up any issues for you there is help available 24-7:

• Helpline – free call or text 1737
• Youthline – phone 0800 376 633, free text 234 or email talk@youthline.co.nz
• Suicide Crisis Helpline – phone 0508 828 865 (0508 TAUTOKO)

A series of decapitations of animals has been described as “grotesque and barbaric” by the Department of Conservation. Officials are “shocked and horrified” by the trend.

Two infringement notices were issued after footage was posted recently of a great white shark being towed along Muriwai beach in Auckland and its severed head being “worn by one of the individuals involved”.

Other incidents over the last year and a half recoded by DOC include the beheading of two fur seals in separate incidents and a decapitated penguin. Several red knots, a form migrant shorebird, were found with their heads removed and their bodies left abandoned on beaches.

Dylan Swain, investigations team leader at DOC, said the incidents are in breach of the law. “Even a dead native animal is protected by the Wildlife Act, as we saw with the shark head case,” he said in a statement.

The decapitations are believed to be the work of humans rather than predation by another species. “In a couple of incidents, the heads of these animals have been removed with some sort of implement. There are no teeth or bite marks or signs the animals have been attacked by another species,” said Swain.

Anyone with information that could help investigations is encouraged to call 0800 DOC HOT or email wildlifecrime@doc.govt.nz.

A video promoting Liz Gunn’s NZ Loyal party that used Sir Dave Dobbyn’s anthemic 1988 hit ‘Loyal’ has been removed following a takedown message from the musician’s manager. “I’m sorry guys but I’ve had to remove the video I posted tonight as apparently Sir Dave’s not a loyalist yet,” the Gunn supporter wrote on Facebook. He included a message from Lorraine Barry, Dobbyn’s longtime manager, which advised, “We do not give approval for use of his songs by any political party or candidate … Please take down your Facebook and TikTok posts that have ‘Loyal’ as a sound bed.”

Once a prominent broadcaster and today a leading figure in New Zealand conspiracy circles, Gunn successfully registered the party NZ Loyal a fortnight ago. Her concerns include 1080, the World Economic Forum, Bill Gates, “gender programming”, the “brown mafia”, and the “weather patterns [that] have been so odd”.

The takedown notice prompted hundreds of dismayed messages from NZ Loyal fans, with several suggesting it revealed New Zealand music legend Dobbyn to be complicit in the globalist agenda. “Not at all surprising, given his title!!” wrote one. “You don’t get knighted unless you’re in the lizards club.”

There is no evidence Sir Dave is a lizard.

Another Gunn enthusiast had an alternative musical idea. “DOES ANYONE KNOW the Takapuna girl who sang I’LL NEVER BY ROYAL’?” they wrote in a post to the NZ Loyal Facebook supporters’ group. “She may like to help SAVE US ALL, by doing a reworded version for singing at all opportune places like at red, blue and black election meetings: Like ‘I’LL ALWAYS BE LOYAL, LOYAL, NZ LOYAL!’ etc, etc. I meant to suggest this when I first heard the name chosen, but suddenly got too busy. A great party song like that would be great for us all. WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BRING THIS ABOUT?”

That thought was quickly dismissed, however, by several other Gunn supporters who noted that Lorde was vaccinated, a friend of Jacinda Ardern’s and “a satanist”.

There is no evidence that Lorde is a satanist.

Toby Manhire sits down with the co-leaders of the Green Party to discuss the successes and failures of the last six years, how they’re approaching a crowded, antagonistic campaign, the electorate seats they’re taking seriously and the great dance of rulings out and bottom lines.

Plus: what was going through their heads as they stood a few metres away from Elizabeth Kerekere when she denounced an “epic failure of leadership” and the latest on the incident in which Davidson was struck by a motorcycle during the Posie Parker counter-protest.

Listen below or wherever you find your pods

National’s leader isn’t entertaining “speculation” that the Act Party may choose not to enter a full confidence and supply coalition with the party.

Over the weekend, Act Party leader David Seymour signalled that his party may choose only to provide confidence to National, allowing it to enter government, but opt against providing supply. In short, that would mean every government policy, including the budget, would need to be individually negotiated with Act in order to be passed.

Christopher Luxon told media this morning that he’s not focused on Act. “I’m focused as leader of the National Party,” he said. “What I think is important is as leader of the National Party, I talk about the National Party. I do everything I can through an election campaign to make my policies, my ideas really clear.”

On the possibility of a confidence-only government, Luxon said he didn’t believe that would be a reality – but wouldn’t go so far as to say Seymour’s comments had been a bluff. He said his relationship with the Act leader was positive and would be constructive in government.

The pair caught up yesterday but did not discuss possible coalition arrangements, he said. “I’m not talking about it… it’s speculation, it’s a hypothetical,” said Luxon.

Another potential coalition partner haunting Luxon on the campaign trail is Winston Peters and New Zealand First. Luxon today continued his routine of refusing to rule in or out working with the party should they make it back into parliament.

Here’s your daily look at where our political leaders are on the campaign trail today (that we know of)

• It’s a busy day in Nelson for Labour leader Chris Hipkins. He’ll start the day at the Nelson bus depot, before heading out with volunteers to wave signs (though not for very long). From there, he’ll visit a dental clinic to highlight Labour’s dental policy pledge and later visit a factory and speak to media.
• National leader Christopher Luxon will start the day in Wellington where he will visit a retirement village with deputy Nicola Willis. Later, he’ll head up the coast to Paraparaumu for a shopping centre walkabout, a stop at a pie shop and then join volunteers to, yup, wave signs.
• NZ First leader Winston Peters will hold a rally in Blenheim this afternoon.

Plus in other exciting news, we’re expecting a new Newshub poll at 6pm. We’ll have the numbers for you then.

Matt Nippert has a good investigation into Sir Peter Jackson’s property empire in the Herald on Sunday (paywalled). Nippert finds that Jackson’s property holdings have doubled in value since 2019, expanding from largely film-related businesses in Wellington’s Miramar “to now include vast warehouses in Upper Hutt and luxury residences in Masterton and Queenstown worth more than $350m”. It appears that Jackson also recently purchased the E tū Wellington headquarters on McGregor St in Rongotai, which has a rateable value $2.5m.

A company owned by Jackson’s Wingnut Group Management, has over the past few months acquired every other property on the block, Nippert reports. “Several sources have speculated that the land could be used to develop Jackson’s long-mooted movie museum, after earlier attempts to build one as a public-private partnership with the Wellington Council foundered.”

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National’s continuing to face tough questions over its tax plan and how it would be funded, with leader Christopher Luxon struggling to provide answers.

In an at times uncomfortable appearance on Q&A over the weekend, Luxon repeatedly refused to release modelling related to his foreign buyer tax/fee. The Herald’s Claire Trevett labelled it “the interview of no answers”.

Then, Luxon avoided questions from Newshub’s Jenna Lynch, walking off during a press conference without providing specifics. Lynch was questioning the National leader over what services may have to be cut in order to provide tax relief for the “squeezed middle”.

“We think there are significant savings to be made, particularly in the back office functions,” Luxon said, without providing specifics on what could be chopped. He was more at ease dressing up as a pirate and it’s worth rewatching last night’s 6pm news coverage for that alone.

Then there’s the question of Act’s potential role in a coalition and what it may want to see scrapped. As detailed in The Bulletin, Act leader David Seymour has now suggested that he was considering a confidence-only deal with National, meaning it would be able to form a government but National would have to seek approval for spending on a case-by-case basis.

At a public meeting over the weekend, Act MPs faced questions over what “bottom lines” it would take into a potential coalition with National, insisting that there weren’t any beyond a referendum on co-governance. As such, the MPs told a crowd in Kerikeri, anything else would be up for negotiation after the election.

Speaking to RNZ, National’s deputy Nicola Willis said a confidence-only arrangement with Act remained a “hypothetical” and wasn’t a situation she would “prejudge”. And on 1News, defended her party’s tax policy against claims important frontline services would be cut.

“We’ve said, let’s look at the overall increase in spending, which is up about 62%, let’s direct these agencies, protect front line services, come back to us by Christmas with what reductions you can make in your backroom costs,” Willis told Breakfast.