Thousands of properties are without electricity approaching midnight on the Coromandel Peninsula. The worst affected, according to PowerCo, is the east coast town Pauanui, where 4,200 households have suffered power outages, with 600 outages in Tairua and 500 in Whitianga. Across the peninsisula, 130 homes in Manaia and 350 in Tapu are without electricity.

Earlier today, Civil Defence authorities urged those in high-risk areas to self-evacuate.

The wesbite Earth provides a “visualisation of global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers”, and is currently conjuring up a powerful image of Cyclone Gabrielle as it washes over the North Island. It updates every few hours.

Even in the earlies stages of Cyclone Gabrielle, around 15,000 households had lost power owing to outages, Vector has reported.

“Cyclone Gabrielle has started to make itself felt with widespread power outages, particularly in exposed areas across north Auckland. Our crews are responding as quickly and safely as they can, given the current weather conditions,” was the message in a statement from the company.

“As of 7pm, around 15,000 customers were without power. This number will change constantly as we restore homes and businesses but, with the weather due to worsen, we expect further outages overnight and tomorrow. The safety of our crews and the public is paramount. We have been preparing for Cyclone Gabrielle since the initial warnings began and have plenty of crews ready. Given the severity of the forecasts, we will sometimes have to stand crews down for their own safety.”

Vector is warning that “some repairs will be complex and potentially complicated by challenges such as road access caused by fallen trees or slips. We encourage customers to be prepared to be without power for some time. If you haven’t done so already, now is a good time to ensure your phones, power banks and other devices are fully charged and you have a torch handy.”

It added: “We would like to remind everyone of the importance of staying well clear of fallen power lines or damaged electrical equipment, and to treat them as live at all times. ​ People using medical equipment that relies on electricity should let their retailer know if they are without power. If there is an immediate health threat, they should contact their health provider or call 111.​ We would like to thank the public for their understanding and patience as our crews work within the limits of what is safe and practical to restore their power, and urge communities to take care and follow advice as the wild weather continues.”

In Northland, around 8,000 are thought to have lost power, and they’re warned not to expect it to return in a hurry.

See the latest outages in Auckland see here. For Counties go here. For Northland see here and the Far North here.

“Non-essential services” across Tãmaki Makarau, including libraries, community centres, early childhood education centres and active recreation centres, will be closed on Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of Cyclone Gabrielle. Only “critical regulatory services activities”, such as building assessments, will take place, while essential services, such as contact centres and cemeteries, will stay open.

“We are redirecting our staff to support the Civil Defence Centres (CDCs) or evacuation shelters that have been prepared ahead of the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle. To keep staff safe and any travel to a minimum, staff have been redirected to the CDC or evacuation shelter nearest to them,” said Auckland Council chief executive Jim Stabback.

Kerbside rubbish, recycling and food scrap collections have also been cancelled for Monday and Tuesday. The Waitākere Transfer Station will continue to operate “unless severe winds make it too dangerous to stay open”.

Expected heavy rain and wind from Cyclone Gabrielle has led KiwiRail to close its network across the top half of the North Island, including Auckland commuter lines, until at least 3pm Monday.

“This will mean commuter trains in Auckland, our Northern Explorer tourism train and the Hamilton – Auckland inter-regional passenger train Te Huia will not be running tomorrow,” said chief operations officer Siva Sivapakkiam in a statement. 

“Rail lines from Auckland to near Marton will also be closed and no freight services in this part of the North Island will be running, including from Tauranga and the Bay of Plenty. The rail line to Northland is already closed following a major slip onto the tracks north of Helensville, during the heavy rainfall in late January. Freight services travelling south of Marton, for example from Napier and Palmerston North, will still be able to operate tomorrow,” he said.

“By closing these parts of the network, we’re ensuring commuters and our people aren’t exposed to potentially dangerous conditions. We appreciate the understanding of passengers and our customers and will review the situation tomorrow.”

Other transport disruptions in Auckland, including many ferry cancellations, are detailed on the Auckland Transport site.

Auckland schools are overwhelmingly announcing they will close tomorrow, and in many cases on Tuesday, as a result of the impact expected from Cyclone Gabrielle. The Ministry of Education has formally recommended closure for on-site learning on Monday, while emergency authorities have urged Aucklanders not to travel unless absolutely necessary and to work from home where possible.

At least one school is of a different mind, however. In a message to parents, a screenshot of which has been posted to a teachers’ Facebook page, Auckland Grammar advises: “For your information, Auckland Grammar School remains OPEN for on-campus learning tomorrow (Monday 13 February). If this needs to be altered due to a significant change in the weather, or if the school received a direction to close under the Education and Training Act, the Headmaster will advise all parents directly via SMS and email.”

A fortnight ago, Auckland Grammar School’s headmaster, Tim O’Connor, similarly announced it would remain open in the cause of “giving boys normality” as others closed following flooding. It later reversed that decision, saying it had subsequently received confirmation that the Ministry of Education had issued a “directive”, rather than simply advice.

Let us know if you’re aware of any other schools intending to open: info@thespinoff.co.nz.

With Cyclone Gabrielle forecast to send heavy rain and strong wind gusts, Civil Defence in Thames Coromandel is “strongly urging” those in areas that have previously flooded, or who live close to beaches or rivers, especially on the eastern coast, to “self-evacuate as soon as possible to family or friends until the cyclone has passed”.

It added: “Civil Defence strongly urge all people who on hillsides to check surroundings for cracks, if they are new or have increased in size or length, please plan to self-evacuate.”

The region is still very much in recovery mode after being battered by floods a fortnight ago, and many roads remain closed. Several Civil Defence and community-led centres have been stood up. For more details see here.

A notice on the Thames Coromandel District Council site advises: “A RED wind and rain warning for Cyclone Gabrielle is in force for the Coromandel. From tonight, Sunday 12 February until Tuesday morning 14 February, we can expect 400mm of rain and gale force easterly winds with gusts exceeding 130km/h across the Coromandel. Widespread surface flooding, coastal storm surge waves in low lying areas, land instability, power outages, road closures, trees and debris falling and damage to property are certain across many parts of our district.”

The following map has been issued:

A state of emergency has been declared in Northland in response to Cyclone Gabrielle, a spokesperson for the Northland Regional Council has confirmed. It spans seven days from 4.30pm this afternoon. It is just the sixth to be declared across the last 50 years, with the fifth having recently lapsed after being issued in response to flooding at the end of January. Auckland’s state of emergency in response to those floods has been renewed twice, meaning it remains in place for the current storms. Thames-Coromandel has similarly extended its state of emergency.

The emergency declaration was requested by Northland Civil Defence Emergency Management controller Graeme MacDonald and signed by the group croup chair Kelly Stratford. It provides powers including evacuation of and entering premises, closing roads and public places and requisitioning property or equipment. “This will ensure we have those extra powers available to us should we need them,” said McDonald.

For more on the Northland response see here.

The Ministry of Education has recommended that Auckland schools close tomorrow, Monday February 13, in response to the threat posed by Cyclone Gabrielle. Earlier today the ministry said it would leave it to individual schools to decide whether to close, based on their own safety appraisals.

Now, in a message to schools, the ministry’s chief executive and secretary for education Iona Holstead says that following discussions with schools, and the latest emergency management advice, “I recommend that the Boards of Auckland schools make a decision to close their schools for on-site instruction from Monday 13 February. Schools should reopen as soon as possible, subject to mitigating and managing risks.”

Numerous schools across the region have announced in messages to parents that they will be closed on Monday, many on Monday and Tuesday. The Auckland Primary Principals’ Association has also advised closure.

As was predicted, Cyclone Gabrielle has already had an impact on electricity delivery across the northern part of the North Island. The combination of wind and rain, combined in some cases with loosened soils as a result of flooding a fortnight ago, is expected to see many trees topple, and many of those break their falls through power lines.

There are currently 18 reported power outages across the Far North. (More information for those affected is here.)

And 17 unplanned outages have been registered across the Whangarei and Kaipara region managed by North Power. (Find more information here.)

In Auckland, there are plenty, too, concentrated largely towards the north of the region. (For more details, see here.)

As well as power outages, forecasters have warned of floods, slips, gales, coastal surges, road closures and the potential for some communities to become isolated.

High winds have forced the closure of Auckland’s harbour bridge “until further notice” as motorists are advised to stay clear of the roads where possible.

Councillor Richard Hills advised travellers use the outer route of state highway 16 if they need to travel to or from the North Shore.

The earlier Civil Defence warning suggested Aucklanders should limit travel where possible, while PM Chris Hipkins reiterated that panic shopping was not necessary and that people should try and avoid the roads unless necessary.

Prime minister Chris Hipkins has spent the day in Auckland, ensuring the city is well placed for the worst of Cyclone Gabrielle.

At a press conference in Takapuna, Hipkins said the response will initially be led by local officials. “Central and local government have been working very closely to prepare for this event,” he said.

“My main message to people across the country is to take the severe weather warning seriously and to make sure you are prepared and to follow the guidance that is being issued locally.”

Hipkins, who was joined in Auckland by his deputy Carmel Sepuloni, reiterated that there was no need for panic buying. “Supermarkets will stay open unless there is a particular reason for a particular supermarket to be closed. They are well provisioned so people will be able to access the essentials. Shop for a couple of days, not a couple of months.”

Other general messages from the prime minister included a reminder to keep mobile phones charged, or have access to a radio so as to keep on top of emergency warnings.

Asked once again whether he had confidence in mayor Wayne Brown, the prime minister refused to comment.

Red warnings and red alerts for rain, winds or both are now in place for the entirety of the North Island. “This is a serious event for New Zealand,” said MetService’s Georgina Griffith at the Auckland Emergency Management briefing this afternoon. “Red warnings are not issued lightly.” Severe weather had already impacted Northland and Aotea Great Barrier Island but what had been experienced in Auckland so far was no more than an “entrée”, she said. “Don’t be fooled if you’re not affected till Tuesday, and just remember – today? Today is the good day.”

Forecasts point to 200mm-250mm rainfall in Auckland north of Whangaparāoa and Barrier, with 150mm and  220mm rain for other parts of Auckland. 

Red warnings for heavy rain and strong wind have been issued Auckland and Aotea Great Barrier Island, with harsh rain and wind expected from Sunday night and the most severe impacts on Monday and Tuesday.

“High intensity deluge or downpour events” of 35mm to 40mm an hour are possible from Monday afternoon. This is expected to cause dangerous river conditions and significant flooding, with slips and floodwaters disrupting travel, leaving some roads impassable and potentially isolating some communities. “Plan for flooding or slip impacts and count yourself lucky if you don’t see them – other parts of Auckland almost certainly will,” said Griffith.

Severe gales, with gusts up to 130 km/h from Monday are expected to cause widespread damage, with risks to trees and powerlines, as well as a risk of roofs being lifted. Road closures and power outages are likely, with conditions rated hazardous for motorists and “a danger to life from flying debris and falling trees or branches”. The wind gusts are “top end” with a low that “we haven’t seen in 40 years”, said Griffith.

Storm surges are another risk, potentially measuring up to half a metre along eastern coastlines on Monday afternoon and into the high tide in the very early hours of Tuesday morning. Throw low pressure and strong onshore winds into the mix and “there is now a high risk of coastal inundation on the Monday evening high tide”.

AEM deputy controller Rachel Kelleher warned that while the rainfall might not be as great in most parts of Auckland as a fortnight ago, the risks, on top of that event especially, are very serious. “Wind first, then the heavy rain on Monday, then possibly that storm surge at 2am Tuesday – be vigilant … Plan, prepare, check in on family and friends and take the steps needed to be safe.”

The sound of the Civil Defence alert ringing out across Auckland’s Sylvia Park mall appears to have done little to deter shoppers advised to “prepare now”.

It feels like a normal Sunday at the shopping centre, with the food court packed and shops bustling.

One staffer spoken to by The Spinoff was unaware of any plans to close early and said staff would be shutting the store as normal. Another staffer said they were feeling “not great” waiting in limbo.

An announcement from the mall is expected shortly which would prompt many hundreds of shoppers to leave en masse.

Shoppers were yesterday advised not to panic buy after reports of queues and stock shortages across Auckland. In East Auckland, one supermarket visited by The Spinoff was sold out of water – except San Pelligrino sparkling – by early afternoon.

North Island schools have been told by the Ministry of Education that they must decide whether or not to open for classes tomorrow. The message comes as much of the region prepares to be battered by Cyclone Gabrielle with the MetService warning of a “very high risk of extreme, impactful, unprecedented weather”.

In a Facebook message posted this afternoon, the ministry wrote: “Boards, principals, early learning services and tertiary education providers are in the best position to decide when it is safe for on-site teaching and learning to continue and to communicate that to you and your community.

“To find out the specific plan for your school, kura, or early learning centre, please check your school or centre’s website or Facebook page. Tertiary students are advised to check with their providers.”

That’s a big change from two weeks ago, when all Auckland schools were ordered to stay closed for the first week of term by the Secretary of Education after widespread flooding caused slips and closed roads across the region.

The decision caused controversy and the secretary for education, Iona Holsted, later apologised for slow communication. The decision was reversed later in the week, allowing some schools to open early.

Confusion also surrounds the latest messaging, with one West Auckland school telling parents this afternoon that a decision about closures would be made later in the day. It also said: “The Ministry of Education could give schools a directive to close.”

Auckland Emergency Management is currently giving a briefing on the expected impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle. Watch it here.

Many dozens of domestic and international flights have been cancelled by Air New Zealand in anticipation of dramatically worsening weather resulting from Cyclone Gabrielle. These include:

• All trans-Tasman and Pacific Island flights tomorrow (Monday) have been cancelled.
• All domestic jet services into, out of, or through Auckland tomorrow are cancelled.
• Five long-haul international arrivals and departures into Auckland tomorrow are cancelled. (New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Singapore arrivals are operating as normal but the airline warns they may be required to divert to another NZ port.)
• Long-haul international departures from Auckland on Monday are cancelled
• All flights to or from Kerikeri and Whangarei between midday today and Tuesday morning are cancelled
• All turboprop flights to, from or through Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Taupo from midday today through to midday Tuesday are cancelled
• Last flights into Hamilton and Tauranga tonight are cancelled

Air NZ warns that further flight cancellations are possible if extreme weather persists. Customers are encouraged to check for updates here.

“We continue to do everything we can to minimise the impact on our schedule, however in preparation for strong fluctuating crosswinds, for the safety of our staff and customers, international arrivals and departures from tomorrow morning through till midday Tuesday will be extremely limited,” said chief safety officer Captain David Morgan in a statement. “Given that the trajectory and strength of cyclone Gabrielle is fluid, customers should prepare for further flight cancellations. Our priority is the safety of our customers, staff and infrastructure and we will only operate flights if it’s safe to do so.”

With Cyclone Gabrielle bearing down on the North Island, the Met Service has upgraded many warnings from orange to red. It warns: “Based on the position and intensity of Gabrielle, this system poses a VERY HIGH risk of extreme, impactful, and unprecedented weather over many regions of the North Island from Sunday to Tuesday.”

The worst of the weather is forecast for Monday and Tuesday across Northland, Auckland, the Bay of Plenty, Tairāwhiti and other parts of the North Island.

An Auckland Emergency Management media briefing is expected at 1pm. The prime minister, Chris Hipkins, is in Auckland to observe preparations, and is expected to speak mid-afternoon. We’ll keep you posted.