It’s nearly time for the two Chrises to go head-to-head for the second time during the election campaign. The Newshub leaders’ debate kicks off on Three at 7pm and you can bet we’ll be blogging along for every moment of it.

We’ve got The Spinoff’s Mad Chapman in the studio, while I’ll be sitting on the couch in my lounge like a regular punter.

Join me soon for the second leaders’ debate of Election 2023.

Tonight’s 1News Verian paints a very similar picture to Monday night’s Newshub Reid Research poll. If it bore out on election night, it confirms National and Act would need Winston Peters’ party to form a government. 

National is down 1% on last week’s poll at 36%, while Act is holding steady on 12%. That gives National 45 seats and Act 15, one short of the 61 needed to form a government. NZ First is on 6%. 11% of voters remain undecided.

Polling was done between September 24 – 26, which means it captures Christopher Luxon’s announcement on Monday morning that National would work with NZ First if necessary to form a government. 

Labour is down another 1% to 26%. That would give the party 33 MPs. The Greens are up 1% to 13%, giving them a17 MPs, and Te Pāti Māori was down 1% to 2%. As always, its path to parliament depends on an electorate seat win, which will most likely be Rawiri Waititi in the Waiariki electorate. Whakaata Māori polling for that electorate is out tomorrow night. 

Tonight’s poll is the last major television network polling before hundreds of thousands of people cast their votes when advance voting opens next Monday. It is definitely not the last poll before election day on October 14, with 1News Verian polls due every Wednesday until then. Voting for those overseas and those needing to use the telephone dictation service began today. 

Paddy Gower hosts the Newshub leaders’ debate tonight, starting at 7pm on Three. As always, we’ll be live blogging throughout and delivering verdicts on the second round of Chris v Chris later tonight.

Labour’s accused National of copying its police policy, after the opposition today pledged 300 more frontline officers.

Mark Mitchell, the National police spokesperson, said that violent crime was up 33% while serious assaults had more than doubled under Labour. “Much of this increased crime is concentrated in what were once relatively safe inner-city areas, where shop owners and members of the public are expressing concern about a lack of visible police presence on the streets,” he said.

But his Labour counterpart Ginny Andersen said she had already announced an identical policy based on identical costings. “Today, Christopher Luxon and Mark Mitchell proved why the public cannot trust National on law and order, because they’re unable to come up with their own policing policy – instead just hitting copy and paste on ours,” she said.

“Given imitation is the greatest form of flattery, I would typically be delighted that National has not only copied our policy but copied the costings that go with them. But frankly, it’s just embarrassing and a disservice to New Zealanders.”

Earlier in the election campaign, Luxon claimed Labour had stolen “its homework” after it announced a similar education policy targeted at reading, writing and maths.

Te Tai Tonga, the largest of the 71 electorates, and encompassing the entire South Island, Stewart Island, the Chatham Islands, all the islands in the Southern Ocean, as well as a large part of Wellington City, has been held by incumbent Labour MP Rino Tirikatene for 12 years. And according to a new poll by Whakaata Māori, he may hold it come October 14 – although perhaps not as safely as at the last election.

In 2020, Tirikatene won 50.4% of the votes, while Te Pāti Māori candidate Tākuta Ferris gained 26.2%. In a new poll conducted by Curia for Whakaata Māori last week, Tirikatene was the preferred candidate on 36%, trailed by Ferris on 25%. But with 18% of voters in the electorate undecided and only 500 voters polled, there’s potential for it to be a close race. It’s also incredibly difficult to poll the Māori electorates, owing to their size and population spread.

The poll also revealed that support for Labour was on 31%, with Te Pāti Māori at 18%, the Greens at 14%, National at 9% and 12% undecided. The preferred party result is the best showing for the Greens in the three Māori seats polled by Whakaata Māori to date.

It’s a cold and blustery day here in the central Hawke’s Bay and I’ve just pulled into a local cafe for a coffee and some food (I now understand why being on the road like our political leaders encourages you to eat a very pastry-heavy diet).

I’m here to spend some time with Labour MP Kieran McAnulty who is campaigning hard to retain the expansive Wairarapa seat he won in 2020.

McAnulty was holding a street corner meeting in Waipukurau this morning and a handful of local constituents braved the cold. “I didn’t think anyone would turn up,” he said, visibly shivering.

Off the back of Labour releasing its full fiscal plan this morning, McAnulty dedicated much of his face-to-face time with the locals defending his party’s track record on the economy and questioning the viability of National’s tax cuts. The prospect of a three-party coalition between National, Act and New Zealand First would likely mean more cuts to key services, he said, if they were unable to reach consensus on National’s tax cut package.

The winter energy payment appears popular in this part of the country, at least from those willing to turn up to political meetings during the week. While both Labour and National have committed to keeping it, McAnulty said that National’s tax cuts have to be funded from somewhere and reiterated doubt that the planned foreign buyer tax would be implemented.

I’ll have more to say about McAnulty and his battle to keep hold of this electorate in the days ahead on The Spinoff. For now, I need to head back to Auckland in time for tonight’s leaders’ debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon.

Labour has released its fiscal plan, a 12-page document laying out its spending plans over the next three years in response to the Prefu released earlier this month. It is forecasting a return to budget surplus in 26/27, and net debt to peak at 22.8% in the 24/25 fiscal year. The plan relies on further “savings and efficiencies” being found across government, “on top of the $8 billion we have found this year,” said Robertson in a statement.

“Labour’s fiscal plan is responsible, balanced, costed and credible. It has been endorsed by an independent analysis from Infometrics, who have concluded that the new spending commitments Labour has made can be accommodated within the future spending allowances set aside in PREFU,” finance minister Grant Robertson said.

Read more: Labour’s fiscal plan doubles down on its ‘trust us with your money’ aesthetic

At an event in Grey Lynn last night hosted by advocacy group Renters United, candidates for the Mount Albert electorate discussed housing issues with renters. Instead of a standard debate format, the event rotated candidates between tables of renters, giving attendees the chance to talk about some of their concerns about rental stability with candidates, with the hope that elected candidates would take renter’s concerns to parliament.

Formerly held by Jacinda Ardern, the Mt Albert electorate seat is currently empty. It’s being contested by sitting list MPs Helen White (Labour), Ricardo Menéndez March (Greens) and Melissa Lee (National, who didn’t attend the event). Ciara Swords from The Opportunities Party and Ollie Murphy from Act, memorably profiled in the latest season of Youth Wings, were also there.

At the table where The Spinoff was sitting, renters discussed power imbalances in relationships with both landlords and head tenants. Several people had been to the Tenancy Tribunal after disputes, but had lost. While many had good flats, others spoke of a fear that further regulation of the rental market would mean that their housing might be less secure, due to landlords not wanting to meet obligations.

The four candidates spoke about their vision for what good renting could look like. Menéndez March described the Greens’ plan for a rental warrant of fitness to go above and beyond the current healthy homes standards. White said that Labour wanted to build more affordable homes, adding that renting was “a legitimate alternative to owning a house,” and that properties treated simply as investments often led to bd outcomes for tenants. Murphy reiterated that Act’s plan to deregulate building codes, for instance with pre-fabricated homes, would lead to more choice and better outcomes for tenants, despite heckling from an audience member saying that renter’s rights were not simply equivalent to housing choice. TOP’s Swords discussed plans for a landlord register, funding for community housing to be built, and changing rules to make putting money into building houses easier.

As of the 2018 census, more than 50% of people in the Mount Albert electorate do not own their house.

Here’s a look at where our political leaders are today. And a reminder: the next televised leaders’ debate airs on TV3 at 7pm tonight. We’ll have a liveblog for those who want to watch along with us,

• At 10am this morning, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and the party’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson will launch Labour’s fiscal plan in Auckland.
• National leader Christopher Luxon is also in Auckland. He’s launching his party’s campaign bus – which seems a little late in the campaign but nevertheless – and will then head to Newmarket for a lovely little walkabout. There will then be a policy announcement and Luxon will address media.

Overseas voting in the October election starts today, ahead of local voting booths opening on Monday. In today’s Bulletin, the rise and rise of advance voting.

In 2020, Claire Robinson concluded that advance voting probably benefits the traditional major parties and that the so-called minor parties benefit from late strategic voting. “Since the MMP system began, the minor party vote has been highest in the elections where the pre-election poll gap between the major parties has been widest. With last night’s gap between Labour and National remaining a whopping 15 points, it looks like the Greens and ACT will be the beneficiaries of late strategic voting, not either of the major parties.”

Finally, Paddy Gower hosts the Newshub leaders’ debate tonight, the last leader’s debate before advance voting begins. Reading this account of the 2020 Newshub debate feels like reading a history book at this point, but it’s also the debate where Ardern stepped up a notch. Gower sounds like he’s been in a state of deep preparation for a while for tonight’s debate. As always, we’ll be watching, live blogging and delivering verdicts.

Want to read The Bulletin in full? Click here to subscribe and join over 38,000 New Zealanders who start each weekday with the biggest stories in politics, business, media and culture. 

In the same week National leader admitted he would work with New Zealand First, both parties have launched new policies aimed at reducing the number of people on benefits.

Both take a hardline approach, though are significantly differ. While National’s proposal would introduce a tiered, traffic light framework at which the “red” level includes a possible reduction in benefits, New Zealand First has proposed a benefit cap.

Winston Peters said anyone will have the ability to access the Job Seeker Benefit as normal – but “for no more than a total of two years across their working lifetime”.

He added: “If for any reason they need more financial assistance they will be expected to work in the community for their wage.”

Help should not turn into a “long-term hand-out”, Peters said, and there needed to be a “seismic change” in the attitude of people to engaging in work.

Christopher Luxon told media this morning that his party’s policy wasn’t “beneficiary bashing”.

“if you’re on a jobseeker benefit, you’ve been deemed to be able to work or get yourself ready for work… We’re going to be clear on the consequences.”

Meanwhile, Luxon defended his party’s tax policy after Peters labelled it “voodoo economics” – a line very similar to one used by Labour’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson.

“I do not care,” said Luxon, who added that he was “absolutely rock solid” on being able to deliver his party’s proposed tax cuts.