When will we know the NZ election result?

Everything you need to know about when and how things will unfold on Saturday night and beyond. 

What time do results come in?

The polls close at 7pm on Saturday November 7. And we’ll get a pretty good idea of how accurate the opinion polls have been pretty soon after that.

How soon is pretty soon?

Well over 1.5 million people will have cast an advance vote by the time election day itself begins, having dealt to the ballot at some point across the 12 days of advance voting period from October 26. 

The counting of these advance votes begins at 9am on Saturday morning, undertaken at “secure electorate headquarters”. 

These will be the first results we can expect to see, from shortly after 7pm.

Shortly? How shortly? 

As soon as 10 minutes after the clock strikes 7pm, based on recent elections. At 7.10pm in 2023, we had 2% of the count.

(The Spinoff will have a live feed of the party vote numbers as they’re released – right here, on this very site.)

And how useful are those early counts?

Well, in 2023, at 7.14pm, with just under 4% counted, National was sitting on 41.1%. In the final results, it had 38.1%. 

For Labour it was 25.7% (final: 26.9%), the Greens were on 11.6% (11.6%, ta-dah!), Act 9.3% (8.6%), NZ First 6.4% (6.1%) and Te Pāti Māori 1.7% (3.1%).

When are votes cast on election day counted?

These are called “ordinary” votes and they’re counted from 7pm. “Special” votes are counted after election day.

If I cast an ordinary vote does that mean I’m not special?

No. You are not defined by your vote. You are special.

How are votes counted?

They’re counted by the hand of a human. New Zealand does not use vote counting machines.

And how long until we get most of the results?

The Electoral Commission states its target as publishing 50% of voting places by 10pm.

How reliable is 50%?

Sometimes, 50% is enough to have a clear idea of who would be forming a government. When it’s really close, as polling suggests it will be this time, there may be too many variables in play to say anything with confidence. 

Shall we do that %-to-final comparison exercise again?

Yes.

Well, in 2023, at 9.45pm, with 52% counted, National had 41.1%.In the final results, it had 38.1%.

Labour had 26% (final: 26.9%), the Greens 10.4% (11.6%), Act 9.2% (8.6%), NZ First 6.2% (6.1%) and Te Pāti Māori 2.5% (3.1%).

What about the electorates?

Results for electorates flow in through the night. These are even more likely to fluctuate based on particular booths arriving in batches. There will be plenty of tight and interesting races, with the stakes raised by the heightened likelihood of overhangs. 

Overhangs? Sounds boring.

On the contrary. This quirk of the MMP system means that on both sides of the political divide overhangs are likely, both by accident and design. It could even end up determining who becomes government.

And what is the overhang?

It’s when one party – in this case National or TPM – wins a number of electorate seats that is beyond the allocation it would otherwise get from the party vote. In that circumstance, they get to keep the seats, and parliament grows beyond the default size of 120 MPs. 

And when is the final vote count issued?

By 11.30pm, the Electoral Commission expects to have and 95% of the preliminary vote published. 

What that won’t include, critically, is special votes.

What are special votes? Votes cast overseas?

Special votes do include votes cast abroad, but that’s just a part of the mix (less than 20%). 

All votes cast out of a voter’s own electorate are special votes, as are those by people on the unpublished roll. 

In the last election, all votes cast by people at the same time as enrolling were also counted as a special vote, but that is no longer a factor as the rules have changed so that enrolment closed before advance voting began on October 26.

However, anyone who enrolled after writ day on October 4 will cast a special vote.

When will special votes be counted?

The special votes, and therefore the final and official count, should come up to 10 days after election day. 

How many special votes can we expect?

In 2020, there were 603,257 special votes – just over 20% of the total. It’s expected to be in similar territory this time. 

How much can special votes change things?

Typically there are a handful of seats that swap hands. In 2023, for example, specials saw National lose two seats, Te Pāti Māori gain two, and the Greens gain one. 

When will the final, final, final result be announced?

The chief electoral office must post the final, final, final (aka official) results 20 days after election day – that’s Friday November 27.

When do coalition talks begin?

Anytime. It depends on factors including whether the lay of the land is clear and whether Winston Peters needs to go fishing.

If the margins are tight, and/or the Opportunity Party is close to the 5% threshold mark, and/or there are various potential overhang electorates hanging in the balance, that will add to the delicacy of it all, and make it trickier for parties to get stuck into any coalition negotiations before the specials are in.

And when do coalition talks end?

Last time, it took around 40 days from the election. In 2020, it took four weeks. After the first MMP election in 1996, negotiations lasted two months. This year, Christmas is said to be on December 25.

To put that in some global context, negotiations after the Belgian election in 2010 lasted 541 days before a government was formed.

Will the Spinoff be again running live updates of dogs at polling booths?

Of course. For democracy.