Election 2026 live updates: On early results, the current coalition has a majority

After a strong start in the 30s, in defiance of polling averages, National has dipped under the 30% mark. With 23% counted, National is on 29.8%, with Labour right behind on 29.6%. The three coalition parties are on almost exactly 50%.

Opportunity's deputy leader Daniel Eb has taken the stage at the Opportunity party to cheers from the crowd. The crowd is enthused by the result but not quite euphoric (the party's sitting on 5.4%, just over the threshold to make it into parliament, but not far enough over to soothe nerves). Eb said leader Qiulae Wong is “still at home, getting tarted up”. The candidates and supporters are absolutely demolishing the charcuterie spread and the staff at the cash bar have been run off their feet, despite the exorbitant prices ($13 for a bottle of Tuatara Hazy).

For the steadily growing crowd down at the National party, it’s the electorate numbers at the bottom of the screen that get the people going. And no one – with the possible exceptions of Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith (“Goldsmith! Goldsmith” the chant goes) – get the crowd going like fan favourite Carlos Cheung. Apparently he’s big on National social media, but he must have missed my algorithm. The last time we saw Cheung’s name on the big screen he was up by double digits. At the time of writing, he’s up by a single vote.

As soon as I stepped inside the Act Party party I was told tonight is a "50 shades of pink party". Have already spotted an epic pink top hat and ballgown. The best edition to the theme, however, is the sparkly pink carpet awaiting Act leader David Seymour – who is said to arrive before 8pm.

Food is also on theme with lots of meats on offer on the cheese board – as well as sushi and an open bar (classy).

The room is filling up fast with some cheering as Act MP Andrew Hoggard is interviewed by TVNZ’s Mei Heron. Vibes are chatty and pink.

David Seymour’s dad Breen (AKA man in the epic pink top hat) says he is feeling “proud and positive”. He wants to see Act come back into the government with 15 MPs – and seemed very hopeful and confident this is where the night is heading. Vibes are high with David’s arrival about 30 minutes away.
Not sure if the buzz in the room is the Act magic or the open bar – but there is a buzz undoubtedly. 

Joel MacManus is at the Opportunity party and they're vibing positive.

For a minute there the senior National minister Chris Bishop looked to be defying the odds and on track to hold Hutt South, but a new bundle of ballots has clearly arrived with Ginny Andersen's name heavily ticked. She leads by 367 with 26% counted.

The three parties of the incumbent coalition roared out of the traps, at one point holding 52% of the vote counted.

They're still in a position to return to power, but that number is less commanding with 20% tallied. Their combined total is 50.6%, with National 30.1%, Act 10.8% and NZ First 9.7%.

Opportunity, on 5.4%, has dropped a little, but not yet in the danger zone.

Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere has arrived at Oriini Kaipara's party right on time for the kick-off of the Kiwi Ferns Rugby League World Cup semifinal against Samoa. Early indications show Kaipara winning Tāmaki comfortably, with a nearly 3000-strong buffer between her and Kerrin Leoni. Expectations are it could be an early night here in Manukau.

Shane Jones is at the NZ First party. He’s wearing a powder blue suit and boasting about the size of the snapper he caught earlier today, which to be fair, did appear to be absolutely massive. He says the catch is evidence that his stewardship of fisheries has been effective and sustainable. Jones denies that the snapper were bottom trawled. “We don't want these fanciful sort of mythological views about fishing. Don't raise that word here in the Bay of Islands,” he tells The Spinoff.

Jones says the early numbers are looking good for the government. “My cup of optimism constantly overflows,” he says, before taking a sip of his drinking and wandering back toward the Duke of Marlborough.

Julie Anne Genter of the Greens is leading in the Wellington Bays electorate, 896 votes ahead of Craig Renney of Labour with 31.1% of the vote counted.

Jason Walls announced the first numbers of the night with National at 29.6% to a muted response. Once Jason was gone and the camera returned to Jack tame and Tova O’Brien, National went up to 30-point something and then 30.7%, a lone enthusiast cheered and yelled out to the still largely empty room “Party vote!”

Minutes later, the number rose once again to 31.9% and the mojo meter dramatically jumped to a 5.7/10 with a few yelps and cheers from a concentrated group of some of the younger suited-and-booted men in the room.

It’s all cautious excitement here at the Labour Party’s election night bash at esteemed Upper Hutt establishment The Cossie Club. There’s red balloons, beige food and homegrown tunes to keep the senses distracted, in case the dual screening of both 1News’ and Three News’ election night coverage is too overstimulating. As a child raised on Cossie Club cuisine, I think I’m in my happy place.

For now, everyone here is playing it pretty cool. Once he’s finished enjoying fish and chips for dinner, Labour leader Chrish Hipkins will be getting among the celebrations a little later, arriving with Barbara Edmonds. News that National’s Chris Bishop is leading in Hutt South got little recreation from the Labour crowd. Then again, so did the revelation that Labour’s own Helen White is leading in the closely-fought Mt Albert. And now Don McGlashan is playing over the speakers, something about a halfway house halfway down Dominion Road. Out the doors, in the public bar, someone's singing 'Bad Moon Rising' on karaoke.

The crowd of candidates and supporters gathering for the Opportunity Party's election night event at Eden Park is feeling optimistic for the night ahead. Several of the candidates in attendance haven't met in person before, so there's a bit of a networking happening.

Deputy leader Daniel Eb addressed the crowd just before the first votes dropped, reminding them "I'm Daniel Eb, by the way. Deputy leader." There'll be various speakers and stories from the campaign trail tonight as the crowd mingles around the cash bar and the charcuterie table.

Speaking to the Spinoff, Eb said "history's been made at this hallowed ground many times. We're hoping its going to be made again tonight".

The initial vote release put Opportunity on 5.8%. The crowd cheered in relief, happy to be above the crucial 5% threshold, but weren't completely elated with the result.

Kieran McAnulty is in Masterton and tells 1News that the result is too early to call, saying it would take a “very brave” person to make the call either way. McAnulty's interview is interrupted by Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ fiancee coming out with two trays of snacks – sausage rolls and pikelets – that have been made from her nana June’s recipe. “You can take the recipe if you want,” Toni offers the horde of reporters. Moments later, Simon Mercep crosses live from Russell and drops the piece of snapper that Shane Jones had caught earlier. "Twenty-second rule!" Jack Tame tells him.

Over on Whakaata Māori, Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox are crossing live to reporters at each of the party headquarters. Jessica Tyson is in the thick of the action at the Act Party venue, and points out the pink – rather than the traditional red – carpet awaiting the arrival of David Seymour. The early vibes are good, though Tyson notes, “I have not seen any Māori.”

The Greens are not leading any Māori electorates but are in second place in five of them: Hūhana Lyndon is 515 votes behind Te Pāti Māori's Aperahama Edwards in Te Tai Tokerau, Tania Waikato is 944 votes behind TPM's Rawiri Waititi in Waiariki, Lisa Te Morenga is 1,095 behind Mananui Ramsden of Labour in Te Tai Tonga, and Heather Te Au-Skipworth is 929 votes behind Labour's Cushla Tangaere-Manuel in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.

Te Pāti Māori's Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is well ahead of Labour's Te Pūoho Kātene in Te Tai Hauāuru with 11.6% of the vote counted, and Hana -Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is comfortably ahead of Labour's Kingi Kiriona in Hauraki-Waikato. Oriini Kaipara leads comfortably over ex-Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni in Tāmaki Makaurau.

John Key joined Paul Goldsmith in the 11th hour of this campaign to urge Epsom voters to put the tea back in their pots and vote for the National candidate ahead of David Seymour. And though Seymour is ahead, Goldsmith is not completely out of it, trailing by 347 votes with almost 20% counted.

Down in Wellington North, Tamatha Paul is strolling toward retention of the seat for the Greens, with her main challenger, Labour's highly rated Ayesha Verall, more than 3,000 behind with 20% counted.

It's shaping up to be a good night for the Nats. Henry Oliver is at the party's event.

Labour's Kieran McAnulty is leading Wairarapa but only just – he's 68 votes ahead of the incumbent, Mike Butterick, with 7.1% of the vote counted.

In Christchurch Central, Labour's George Hampton is in the third. Kahu Carter of the Greens is not performing as well as some expected, with National's Dale Stephens in second place, trailing Hampton by 1,680 votes with 17.2% of the vote counted.

Lyric Waiwiri-Smith has important news from the Labour party event, involving Chris Hipkins and fish and chips.

With 10% of votes counted, we can draw these conclusions:

• The incumbent coalition will be delighted, topping 50% combined.
• Opportunity look like they'll make it over the 5% line, but only at this point by half a percent.
• Based on early electorate counts, we're looking at a chunky overhang, with both Te Pāti Māori and National tracking towards more electorate wins than their party vote would give them.

Some important caveats:

• Though National will rightly celebrate a number beginning in three, but recent elections suggest their early number falls by a point or two over the course of the night and through the special vote count.
• The overhang question hinges on the electorates, and there tends to be more bumps in the road across the course of the night on the electorate count.

With 12.5% of the vote counted, the right bloc has a clear majority: 68 seats without needing Opportunity.

The left bloc, meanwhile, has 61 seats – including Opportunity.

National is at 30.97%, which gives it 42 seats, Labour is on 28.38% with 34 seats, the Greens are on 12.82% which would give them 15 seats. Act is on 11.32% (14 seats), NZ First 9.81% (12 seats), and Opportunity is on 5.53% (seven seats).

Despite grim reports about the decline of media, I was excited to learn I was the 50th (!) reporter to arrive at St Matthews in the City, the 121-year-old inner-city Tāmaki Makaurau church and the venue where the Green Party will watch tonight’s election results roll in. A documentary crew is here, along with five journalists from Australia. The WiFi seems very laggy.

The early mood is buzzy, upbeat, friendly and joyous – perhaps because, by 7.30pm, no one knew what was going on because the results were yet to be put up on the big screen. That’s the point everyone seemed to start checking their phones in an attempt to get those early indications. I spotted several furrowed brows.

Anyone who wanted a distraction could instead focus on the food – surely the most glorious spread put on at an election night party: table after table laden with breads, dips, crackers, cheese, meats, olives, smoked salmon, tropical fruits and two kinds of melon. The only downer was the celery. So much celery.

If there’s any kind of apocalyptic event tonight, shut the church doors and we’re good for at least two weeks.

“I’m Paddy Gower, and I am excited,” Patrick Gower said as he introduced Three and Stuff’s coverage on Three. He’s joined by Sam Hayes, with a panel that includes Chris Penk and Golzriz Ghahraman, and Lloyd Burr is sitting at a separate desk. Over on 1News, Jack Tame and Tova O’Brien are flanked by guests including Paul Henry, Stacey Morrison and Guyon Espiner (who works for RNZ?). Over on RNZ, it's John Campbell and Lisa Owen, while on Whakaata Maori Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox are running the show. The biggest news so far?  Wellington mayor and former Labour leader Andrew Little is late to the TVNZ panel because his flight is delayed. 

In Russell, Shane Jones is telling Three about the impressive fish he caught today. Will he be the kingmaker tonight? So far the signs are positive, he says. “That was a whopper of a snapper”, Three’s Paddy Gower said from the safety of the Auckland studio. “He got that out of the freezer.” The fish did not wish to comment.

Early results have Te Pāti Māori retaining at least five of the six Māori electorate seats they won in 2023.

Aperahama Edwards is leading in Te Tai Tokerau by 313 votes over teh Greens' Hūhana Lyndon with 5% counted so far.

Labour's Mananui Ramsden is leading in Te Tai Tonga, 550 votes ahead of the Greens' Lisa Te Morenga with 6.2% of the vote counted.

The NZ First election party is being held at its usual location, the Duke of Marlborough Hotel in Kororāreka, where the sun is bouncing off the pristine Bay of Islands water and attendees are eating oysters and snapper ika mata. It's beautiful, except this year the party hasn’t been able to keep the venue to itself. It’s been double-booked with the wedding of Shannon and Potsy and you can occasionally hear cheering and music coming from the celebrations in the next room. During a trip outside to take a photo, the couple told The Spinoff they booked this place two years ago so it's really Winston Peters that's muscled in on their event, not the other way around.

National's candidate Tim Costley has a big lead in the new electorate of Kapiti, leading over Labour's Sophie Handford by 1,416 votes with 8.1% of the vote counted.

In Mt Albert, Labour's Helen White is in the lead, with a slim 194-vote margin over National's Melissa Lee with 4.9% of the vote counted.

This is the moment at the Opportunity election night event as the first results dropped and showed the party over the 5% threshold for the first time in the party's history. There's still a whole lot of water to go under the bridge, but it's looking hopeful for the Qiulae Wong and co., with 6.5% of the vote counted. Check out the whoops of joy.

Act's high-profile Tāmaki candidate James Christmas is not in the top two currently, with National's Mahesh Muralidhar 1,082 ahead of Labour's candidate Max Harris, with 16.2% of the vote counted.

National's incumbent Greg Fleming is leading by 1,231 over Labour's Priyanca Radhakrishnan in Maungakiekie with 13.6% of the vote counted,

In Mt Roskill, the National incumbent Carlos Cheung is marginally ahead of Michael Wood of Labour, leading by 135 votes with 6% of the vote counted.

In Nelson, National's Blair Cameron is ahead of the incumbent, Labour's Rachel Boyack, with 19.1% of the vote counted. He's leading by 963 votes.

The first results in the electorates are in, and with 5% of the vote counted, National's Chris Bishop is 551 votes ahead of Ginny Andersen in Hutt South.

In Banks Peninsula, meanwhile, Labour's Tracey McLellan is 895 votes ahead of the incumbent, National's Vanessa Weenink, with 5.9% of the votes counted.

Hayden Donnell is at The Duke of Marlborough in Russell, Bay of Islands, stationed at the piano that Justin Bieber had a blat on last month when he was visiting New Zealand. He tried and failed to play us a tune (he couldn't get the lid open), but he does bring news of who is at the NZ First election night party and who is missing...

National is on 30.79%, Labour on 29.88%, the Greens 12.32%, Act 11.05%, NZ First 9.3%, Opportunity 5.72% and Te Pāti Māori 0.29%.

With 0.4% of the vote counted, National is in the lead at 32.61%, with Labour trailing on 25.27%, the Greens on 13.51%, Act on 12.57%, NZ first on 8.68%, Opportunity on 6.68% and Te Pāti Māori on 0.15%.

Yes, it's early days but it's worth remembering that these first results are usually a pretty good indication of what the final results will be.

How do these early results compare to the last polls before election day? Taking the averages from the four final polls, the percentages looked like this: Labour 29.6%, National 27.4%, Greens 14.6%, Act 10.1%, NZ First 10%, Opportunity 6.1%, Te Pati Māori 1.4%.

Hello and welcome to The Spinoff's rolling election night coverage.

The polls have just closed and any minute we should see the first results start to come in. More than 1.6 million people voted in advance of polling day and counting of those special votes began at 9am. The results of those advance votes will drop first and then we'll start to get an idea of who is going to spend the rest of the night feeling quietly confident, who will be swallowing down disappointment and who will be biting their nails to the bitter end.

We have had the right soundtrack playing today. All the thunder and lightning feels as high drama as these results are likely to be. No one with any common sense has tried to pick who will form the next government – the polls have just been too tight. Were they right? Strap in – we're about to find out.