One MMP veteran reckons it might be.
Across 50 years of polling for TVNZ, at least one of the two big parties has sat above 30%. Or so it was, at least, until the last poll. If National and Labour hoped that was an aberration, this week’s Curia/TPU poll was even grimmer.
“Around the world, there’s a general disillusionment with established parties,” said Peter Dunne, whose experience as an MP and party leader under MMP includes working with both National and Labour in government.
There had been an “international reaction” to the governments that imposed Covid restrictions, while in New Zealand there was an evolving understanding that National and Labour could no longer “encompass everything”.
The smaller challengers had begun to “develop their constituencies separately, and then develop how they go out there and challenge. I think this is an inevitable development, and we’ll see whether the major parties recover from the 30% thing. I think probably not. I suspect they’ll hover at about that level, and the remaining 40% of the vote will be shared between the smaller parties.”
So this is the new normal? “I think we’re getting to that, yes.”
Speaking to The Spinoff for an episode of the podcast At Large with Toby Manhire, the man who jumped from the Labour caucus ahead of the first MMP election in 1996 – and went on to become a minister in governments led by both Labour and National prime ministers – said that 30 years on, “I think we’re getting more comfortable with the idea of multi-party government.”
He pointed to the current coalition. “Even though there’s been criticism of the divisions and the game-playing between the members, I think people broadly accept that the government has kept on track. Broadly accept that it has been stable… I suspect a [potential] Labour-led coalition takes some lessons from that as well.”
Dunne has welcomed the emergence of the Opportunity Party, under new leader Qiulae Wong, as a very serious contender to win a place in parliament. As with Dunne’s efforts across the years, Opportunity seeks to place itself at the centre – even if that characterisation is questioned by many who regard the headline policies of a land tax and universal income as inclined pronouncedly to the left.
“I think what was intended when MMP was introduced was that the extremes of the major parties would be moderated by the support parties,” said Dunne. “In fact, as it’s eventuated, it’s the other way around.” Luxon’s announcement that National could not work with the party was “foolish”, in Dunne’s view.
Dunne also lays out the case for what he calls the “kingmaker myth” – in fact, he notes, only two of 10 elections under MMP have seen one party presented with a clear choice of putting one or the other main parties into power.
“If you looked at the public commentary, you would think that that occurred after every single one of those 10 elections.”
For more from At Large with Toby Manhire, follow here for Spotify, or here for Apple. For YouTube, subscribe to the Spinoff here and find all the episodes here.
