Will one of the Chrises go?

One of Chris Hipkins or Christopher Luxon will be the next prime minister. The other will almost certainly lose their leadership.

Chrises were the most dominant species in the last parliamentary term. Looking ahead to the next three years, they could become endangered. Chris Penk is gone after a failed coup and Chris Bishop is out after losing Hutt South. Labour’s new MP Chris Flatt adds another Chris to the mix, but he’s left with just two fellow namesakes: Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon. 

By the time special votes have been counted and negotiations are complete, one of Luxon or Hipkins will be prime minister. But what becomes of the other? Will they fight on to the 2029 election, step down or be rolled? Will they serve out their term as MPs or leave to seek greener pastures? The Spinoff asked some of New Zealand’s top political commentators to predict two alternative futures. 

Georgina Stylianou

Georgina is the managing director of government relations firm BRG, a host of the podcast Three Gals One Beehive and has worked as a political staffer for National and NZ First.

Firstly, we have to acknowledge that Luxon still has the clearest pathway to forming a government, but there are a lot of things going against him. The National Party’s support is down 10 points, he lost some senior ministers, and is heading into some challenging coalition negotiations. And even if he is in a position to become prime minister again there will still be questions about his leadership. 

It's obvious he didn’t come into parliament to sit on the opposition benches, so I think if we do not have a National-led coalition government he will be bowing out. It creates some fascinating hypotheticals – for example, would there be a byelection in Botany? Who could be choppered into that seat? And it will be telling to see what happens with deputy leadership. My gut instinct is that if Erica Stanford doesn’t become the new deputy leader, we can read into it that she is biding her time and hoping for a different job. 

Chris Hipkins has overseen a recovery from Labour’s disastrous 2023 result, but it’s not the sort of recovery that puts leadership questions to bed. There are electorate seats that Labour should have won that they didn’t. With the state of the economy and fuel prices you would have expected Labour’s bounceback to be better. But If he is in a position to become prime minister then those questions will disappear. 

Hipkins has committed to serving a full term as electorate MP for Remutaka and he has a much clearer path to remaining in parliament, and is more of a natural long-serving politician. But if Hipkins isn’t the next prime minister, it's nigh on impossible to see Labour taking him into his third election as leader in 2029. Labour has been quite disciplined and unified under Hipkins and no one will want internal upheaval, so I assume he would politely step down. Kieran McAnulty is the obvious name to replace him but it's not universally acknowledged who the heir apparent will be. 

Ben Thomas

Ben is a director of public affairs firm Capital, a former National Party staffer, and co-host of The Spinoff podcast Gone By Lunchtime. 

I think it’s very clear. Whoever loses has to go. The penalty for losing is death.

I’d imagine Luxon would resign. I can’t imagine he has any great ambitions to be an opposition MP. He was an extremely successful leader of the opposition in the sense that he took over and within two years became prime minister, but I don’t think he would have any personal yearning to go back and repeat that time. I think the Air New Zealand Koru Club black card would be out before anyone could figure out what was going on and he’d be on a plane to Hawai’i. 

If he decided to stay on in opposition he'd be rolled by the party. He’s a KPI guy and the KPI of this election is that you are the prime minister after it. A lot of people think Luxon could be rolled even after becoming prime minister but that doesn’t seem coherent to me. There’s an election to form a government. Whether or not you think National underperformed, if he forms a government he’s won. And when would you do it? Do you roll him after the special votes are counted but before negotiations? After he’s announced a government? It doesn’t make any sense, it would be a bananas thing to do. 

Chris Hipkins is the first leader since Mike Moore who was given the chance to lose a second election. He’s not going to be given the chance to lose a third. If Hipkins can’t form a government, I’d imagine he steps down. Maybe not immediately, but he might signal to the caucus that he’ll set a time in place to step down after everything has settled down. 

I think he probably stays in parliament; Hipkins is nothing if not a creature of parliament. I’ve previously described him as a ghost whose spirit is tethered to parliament and doesn’t really exist outside it. He still has a lot to offer, maybe even more as an opposition MP. He could be like Judith Collins, who made a fantastic contribution to National in opposition. He’s still a very competent MP but he’s had his chance as leader and it’s time to try anyone else. 

David Farrar

David is the owner and director of Curia Market Research, a founder of the Taxpayers’ Union, and editor of Kiwiblog.

Can I imagine that whichever Chris doesn’t get to be prime minister will be there next election? The answer for both of them is absolutely not. The only question is about when it happens. 

For Luxon, my guess is he won’t want to carry on if he loses, but there might not be a mad rush for him to go. He might even be persuaded to stay on. Without Willis and Bishop you have only one serious contender for the leadership [Erica Stanford], so people might want to avoid rushing it so they can think about other options. 

Chippy is a wee bit different, because Labour has to have a vote on the leadership within three months, so there is sort of a ticking clock. But there may be pressure for him to stay because there’s a lack of clarity over who their next leader would be. 

He’s said he will remain an MP for the next three years. But having said that, if he and Toni get married and have children, I don't think it would be a big issue for him to change his mind. It’s one of those promises where if he breaks it, what are you gonna do? Vote him out of parliament?

If Luxon isn’t the next prime minister he’ll go be CEO of some global company. And Chippy is about to get married and he’s very much in love. I know what I would rather do for three years if I could choose between opposition leader or a new wife. 

Clint Smith

Clint is the director of Victor Strategy and Communications, a former Labour Party staffer and adviser to Jacinda Ardern, and the chair of the Paraparaumu Community Board. 

I think it’s likely Hipkins will decide to give someone else a shot. But whatever happens, I’d expect a managed transition rather than him suddenly resigning or someone trying to roll him. I think they’d conduct it in an orderly fashion. I’d suspect the senior figures in the party would try to reach an agreement where only one person stands [to avoid a run-off leadership election with a full membership]. Previous Labour leaders have generally stuck around and served out the term and I’d expect him to do the same. 

In terms of Luxon, I think you won’t see him for dust. He’s been quite clear that if he’s not prime minister he doesn’t see a role for himself in parliament. That could mean a byelection in Botany and Nicola Willis could be thinking that could be a route back into parliament.

I think that’s the difference: Luxon would go very quickly and it would be his choice. That seems very in keeping with his character. Whereas if Hipkins isn’t prime minister it’ll be a conversation among senior party figures. 

Andrew Ketels 

Andrew is the head of government relations for corporate affairs firm Sherson Willis. He was previously the Act Party's chief of staff and has worked as an adviser to the National Party.

Elements of the National caucus have already tried to get rid of Luxon on a couple of occasions, and he knows that’s going to happen again if National can’t form a government. He’ll want to go out on his own terms to preserve his mana, if you will. I think he’d step down voluntarily and pretty quickly. I don't think he’ll want to go back into opposition, he’ll have other things he wants to do. 

It was surprising that Hipkins managed to survive the last loss and make it through a term unscathed in leadership terms. But in the current environment, where political observers see leadership changes as the answer to parties’ problems, I don't see how you could lose two elections in a row and continue – and I think he will know that. I suspect there will be agitation in caucus for the next generation to be given a go. He’ll see the writing on the wall and wouldn’t want to be rolled.

Hipkins has said he's committed to Remutaka for the next three years. Of course, he could always go back on that, but he’s one of Labour’s stronger performers and still has a bit to offer. Politics is his whole life, so you can see him sticking around and wanting to contribute but the brutal reality is that he's probably not going to get another shot at leadership. Maybe if Labour comes back and wins in 2029 he could be a senior minister.

Mike Munro

Mike is the director of government and public relations firm Munro Church Communications, a former journalist, chief press secretary to Helen Clark and chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern. 

I can't see Chris Hipkins surviving and I think he would want to go. Defeated PMs generally depart the scene quickly, so it was unusual that Hipkins got defeated in 2023 and stuck around. But after losing two elections in a row, that would be the end of the road for Chris and I think the Labour caucus would want a change. He’s had a fairly long career and has had a few life changes, with a new marriage on the way and kids growing up. I'd imagine he might want to move on. 

Luxon has a hide as thick as a rhino, but I think the National Party would want to change leaders pretty quickly if Luxon isn’t leading the next government. National will want to rebuild. Luxon’s shortcomings are so many that they’d have to move on quickly. He might have to be rolled, but he’s got a thick hide, he backs himself, and he saw off the last two challenges. However, I think that he’d probably want to go rather than wait for the ignominy of being rolled. He’d want to move on and do something else once he’s lost the glory of leadership.