‘This is serious’: The scrappy final leaders’ debate

Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins met for the last of their three debates last night, trading personal attacks in a scrappy encounter, Henry Oliver writes in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

The Stuff Leaders’ Debate, moderated by Paddy Gower, opened with a pointed promise: “There will be no silly questions. This is serious.” The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus took it as a dig at the Herald’s Ryan Bridge, whose moderation the previous week was lighter, interruptive, and seemed more geared towards generating content rather than substance.

The temperature rose quickly. Luxon called Hipkins “without doubt the most abysmal education minister this country has ever had.” Hipkins called the accusation “petty and pathetic.” When Hipkins accused Luxon of letting Winston Peters and David Seymour “run circles around you,” Luxon warned “I really wouldn't go there” three times before referencing Kiri Allan's 2023 crash — a line MacManus says “holds much less weight now that Allan has been out of parliament for a full term.”

The best clashes

Cost of living. Luxon said life had improved for some, citing $7,000 saved on an average mortgage as interest rates fell, according to Stuff. Hipkins countered that the OCR is climbing again, and that shoppers who once put back wine or biscuits were now putting back nappies (a variation of a line he’s used many times this campaign). “You are so out of touch with the reality facing New Zealanders,” he said.

Coalitions. Asked whether he’d resign rather than work with Opportunity, Luxon wouldn’t say – “I couldn't be any clearer” – a retreat The Post’s Henry Cooke says makes his rule-out "a lot less credible than it was Thursday morning." Hipkins predicted National's caucus would remove Luxon the day after the election.

Health. Hipkins raised nurses at Starship administering chemotherapy in a waiting room (which Luxon said he didn’t want to “politicise”), and the figure of 54 extra nurses hired in two years. Luxon said the government inherited a crisis – having earlier described the system as merely “challenged” when Gower put the word “crisis” to him, before conceding it to reporters afterwards.

Where they agreed

RNZ’s Jo Moir reports a bipartisan quickfire round produced a striking list: both called deliberately engineering an MMP overhang “cheating,” both backed home solar and battery storage, both wanted social media algorithms opt-in, both supported exploring life sentences for child sex offenders, and both agreed a referendum on a four-year term should proceed. Despite both parties polling closer to the pack of “minor” parties, neither wanted an all-party debate next time around.

The verdicts

Cooke’s verdict for The Post is that both leaders were stuck in the past. Asked why Hipkins was discussing 2009, Luxon shot back: “We’re interested in talking about 2040!” only to then spend his own time relitigating Labour’s last term again. Neither offered much on the future: asked for a headline for 2029, they produced “New Zealand more prosperous and wealthier” and “New Zealand is getting back to work.” Both declined to say whether they’d act on a disproportionate overhang – calling it hypothetical. Cooke’s reply: “Everything that happens after November 7 is a hypothetical!”

Moir makes a sharper point on RNZ: across seven debates over two elections, neither leader has managed 45 seconds unscripted about the future they see for the country. “All seven times they've both loaded up a scripted message to an autocue and awkwardly tried to read it down the barrel of the camera. After all these years neither has committed to memory what they believe in.”

MacManus calls Hipkins the winner “by default,” but says he was “solid but unexceptional” – too busy fact-checking, at times “whiny”, still fighting the ghosts of the John Key government. Luxon, he writes, "floundered”, bogged down in jargon and tone-deaf on mortgages. “Luxon gave people a reason to doubt him, but it's not clear if Hipkins did enough to get any of them to switch.”

The polls

The debate took place in the context of two new polls pointing in different directions. 1News-Verian has National up four to 32% and Labour down one to 27%, with the Greens on 16%, Act 11%, NZ First 8% and Te Pāti Māori 0.7%. The right bloc plus Opportunity would reach 68 seats; the left bloc with Opportunity reaches 60. Luxon leads as preferred prime minister on 20% to Hipkins’s 17%.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll has Labour ahead 28.7% with National slightly behind on 27.6%, and Opportunity on 5.4%. Hipkins leads preferred prime minister on 49% to Luxon’s 36%, and Labour leads on cost of living 49% to 30%. Cost of living is the single most important issue for 44% of voters – a record for the poll. Only 25% expect their own household to be better off in a year, against 32% who expect worse.