Why are so many Māori voters turning to the Greens?

John Tamihere says his party’s strategy deserves the credit – but the numbers tell a bigger story.

The Green Party is enjoying a surge in popularity among Māori voters, according to a new poll, with more voters on the Māori roll intending to vote for the Greens this election than any other party. While some are putting this down to the party’s strong stance on issues important to Māori and its prominent Māori candidates, another possible impetus is being pointed to – Te Pāti Māori’s strategy of seeking only the electorate vote.

The Mata Reports-commissioned Horizon poll released late last week showed 28% of respondents on the Māori roll were planning to vote for the Green Party on November 7, an increase of 19% since last election. Labour was close behind on 27% and Te Pāti Māori was third with 16% support. Among Māori on the general roll, more were intending to vote for Labour than the Greens (38% to 17%), but the Greens again saw the biggest increase in support since last election.

Speaking on iwi radio yesterday, Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere credited the Greens’ surge in popularity to his party’s recently announced strategy of seeking only the candidate vote in the seven Māori electorates, while asking voters on the Māori roll to give their party vote to the Greens or Labour. It’s part of a tactic to win all seven Māori electorates and help create an overhang in parliament, which the party believes will increase the chances of changing the government. Late last week, Te Pāti Māori unveiled its party list of one, with the sole candidate being Lance Norman, who currently serves as the party’s general secretary.

“It’s clear to our people that if they want an unapologetic voice, if they want more Māori in parliament, and they want to get this government out, this is the strategy,” Tamihere said.

So is he right? While some of the Greens’ newfound popularity among Māori voters can likely be attributed to the encouragement of Te Pāti Māori to vote for other parties, there is more at play here than Tamihere is highlighting.

At the 2023 election, Labour attracted 44% of the party vote across the Māori electorates, with Te Pāti Māori winning 30% and the Greens on about 9%. With the new poll results showing a 19% increase in the Greens’ popularity among those on the Māori roll, it also shows a drastic 17% drop in support for Labour. That result will concern Labour’s leadership, particularly Māori caucus co-chairs Willow-Jean Prime and Willie Jackson.

Labour struggled in the Māori electorates at the last election, retaining only one of the six it held heading into 2023. The party has been on a mission over the last three years to win back the support of Māori in the electorates, campaigning hard for two ticks for Labour as the safest way to ensure a change of government. Despite this, there are no guarantees they’ll be successful, given Te Pāti Māori’s strategy and the strength of other candidates across the electorates. 

The Tāmaki Makaurau byelection held in 2025 illustrated just how strategic Māori were willing to be with their votes. Political newcomer Oriini Kaipara won decisively over veteran politician Peeni Henare, who was placed highly on the Labour list and guaranteed a return to parliament even if he lost the electorate. 

Kaipara and Te Pāti Māori adopted an “unapologetically Māori” slogan that sought to highlight the limitations placed upon Māori MPs within Labour, who were ultimately answerable to the party hierarchy. It worked, and the suggestion that the Māori MPs within Labour were unable to be unapologetically Māori has been hard to shake.

When Te Pāti Māori claimed all but one Māori electorate in 2023, it tripled the number of MPs it had in parliament. But the achievement was soon overshadowed, as was Kaipara's byelection win in 2025, by a term defined by what John Tamihere labelled as “sabotage from within the party”. As a result, two MPs – Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris – were expelled from Te Pāti Māori in 2025, taking with them a raft of supporters.

The controversy undeniably damaged support for Te Pāti Māori, and likely plays more of a role in the poll indicating a 14% drop in support levels than its overhang strategy.

Similarly, the Greens' boost in support can't be solely attributed to Te Pāti Māori's overhang strategy. While the party has been far from controversy-free itself this term – most notably in the public fallout around former Green MP Darleen Tana's resignation and eventual departure from parliament – it has introduced strong policy on issues that matter to Māori such as land rights, marae funding, support for te reo Māori, housing and papakāinga development and local representation. The party also has strong Māori representation across its ranks, including a Māori co-leader in Marama Davidson, four Māori in the top 10 of the party’s list and nine in the top 20.

“Our work is building trust; that’s our game plan,” Davidson told Te Ao News late last year.

It has now been 10 years since former Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei ran in Te Tai Tonga, becoming the first Green candidate to stand in a Māori electorate. While the party is yet to win a Māori seat, its recent success in the general electorates – it picked up three in 2023 – combined with strong candidates like Hūhana Lyndon standing in Te Tai Tokerau and increasing support among voters on the Māori roll means it could be only a matter of time.

While Tamihere and Te Pāti Māori may like to think of themselves as the reason the Green Party has achieved record levels of support among voters on the Māori roll, there is much more happening that has contributed to the party’s newfound popularity. The hard part now, as any seasoned Māori electorate campaigner will know, is translating that support into votes on election day.