What happens if Kerrin Leoni wins Tāmaki Makaurau?

The Labour candidate resigned, but then chose to remain in the race as an ‘independent’. If she wins, it gets complicated.

Political hopeful Kerrin Leoni was flying high last week, after a poll showed she was trailing the incumbent Tāmaki Makaurau MP Oriini Kaipara by only two points. The duo took part in a debate that evening, and Leoni was asked if she agreed with Kaipara visiting a Mongrel Mob gang pad the week before. She said no, and was accused of being a hypocrite by Kaipara, who alleged Leoni had visited the same gang pad just the week before.

While the allegation turned out not to be true, Leoni had attended a function where gang members were present, dressed in her Labour regalia, holding hoardings and talking about politics. She admitted she wasn’t as honest as she could have been, and subsequently resigned as Labour’s candidate in the election race for Tāmaki Makaurau. It was too late for her name to be removed from the ballot, however, and three days later, Leoni announced her intentions to head to parliament as an independent MP if she won.

It's an unusual situation. “Under the Electoral Act, electorate and list candidates cannot withdraw their candidacy after the close of nominations,” the Electoral Commission said in a statement last week.

Having been confirmed as Labour’s candidate in March, Leoni has benefitted from the party’s campaign machinery for more than six months. Labour has invested resources into building Leoni’s profile in the electorate and beyond, which makes figuring out what to do with her should she win even more difficult.

“If she is elected as a Labour MP and wants to be recognised as an independent… These would be matters to be addressed after the election by the candidate and party for which she was elected,” the Electoral Commission statement said, adding that this process would be overseen by the office of the speaker. If successful, Leoni would technically count towards the number of Labour MPs in parliament, and its share of seats.

However, as Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins has made it clear the party views her position as "untenable", it seems almost certain the party would not allow Leoni to remain a Labour MP, should she win.

Whether she could remain as an independent MP is another question. Labour could choose to invoke the Electoral (Integrity) Amendment Act – often called the party-hopping or waka-jumping legislation – which requires MPs to vacate their seat if they resign or are expelled from the party they were elected under. The purpose of the act is to ensure each party maintains its proportionality in the house, ie the share of seats it won at the election.

If that changes, then the act can be triggered, as it was most recently by the Green Party in October 2024 to remove former MP Darleen Tana from parliament. But Leoni’s situation is more complicated. She's still listed as a Labour candidate on all ballot papers in the electorate and this will not change before election day. This means some voters may be unaware Leoni has resigned as the party’s candidate and is standing as an independent candidate. While Leoni could argue invoking the waka jumping legislation is unfair, given she announced her intention to stand as an independent, the party could equally argue many of her votes could have been a result of the confusion.

If Labour chose to use the act, then a byelection for Tāmaki Makaurau would be required, with any party free to choose their candidate and Leoni able to run as an independent, should she choose to. Alternatively, Labour could choose not to invoke the act and allow Leoni to remain as an independent MP, as it did with Meka Whaitiri in 2023, and as Te Pāti Māori did with Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi in 2025. 

As voting began on Monday, it's likely votes have already been cast for Leoni, some of which could have been based on the fact she was running under the Labour Party banner. Should Leoni win the electorate, Labour would be faced with the undesirable task of figuring out whether or not to invoke the waka jumping legislation, and therefore having to find a new candidate to stand in the electorate. This would mean mounting another election campaign, which means pouring more resources into a seat that's already taken up a lot of the party's time and effort.