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Social media sentiment analysis has assessed how Facebook users reacted to major Covid-19 press conferences (Image: Getty Images, edited by Tina Tiller)
Social media sentiment analysis has assessed how Facebook users reacted to major Covid-19 press conferences (Image: Getty Images, edited by Tina Tiller)

What can Facebook comments tell us about the official NZ Covid-19 response?

Social media sentiment analysis has assessed how Facebook users reacted to major Covid-19 press conferences (Image: Getty Images, edited by Tina Tiller)
Social media sentiment analysis has assessed how Facebook users reacted to major Covid-19 press conferences (Image: Getty Images, edited by Tina Tiller)

What did people in the Facebook comments sections of major news websites have to say about the last month of Covid announcements? A new piece of social media sentiment analysis seeks to answer that very question. 

The comments section on Facebook is often seen as a toxic place, but a new piece of sentiment analysis shows that is not always the case. And it suggests an unexpected bit of positivity around the country’s Covid-19 response. 

Anusha Rai, a data analyst at Auckland digital marketing agency Double, has been trawling through the Facebook comments on major news outlets’ live streams of major Covid-19 announcements. 

To gather up the sentiment, she used an open-source software tool called Vader, which is basically used to extract opinions from written text. It uses machine learning and natural language processing to do that, but requires some human input to make it work properly. 

Rai used the tool to sort comments into positive, negative and neutral groups, and then compiled an average out of that. From the start of the re-emergence of community transmission until the end of August, that average sentiment generally came out positive. 

“The data shows a clear bell curve shape, indicating that sentiment grew to a peak on 21-23 August before again rapidly dropping. The peak was the time the cabinet was meeting to make a decision on the extension,” said Rai. 

Doing this sort of analysis isn’t as simple as just plugging thousands of comments into a spreadsheet. After all, social media comments aren’t written like a thesis or novel. 

Can the tool handle sarcasm, or local idioms like “mean” meaning good? No, said Rai. “I actually had to manually go through a lot of the comments – it does not do well with sarcasm.” 

“That’s been a pretty big problem with a lot of natural language processing, because sarcasm is quite hard to detect, so that’s definitely one of the drawbacks. But Vader is also specific for social media, so it’s pretty good at picking up social media sentiment in particular.” 

Among other features, it can also pick up emojis, and context. “In the context of the sentence, it’s not just like the word ‘mean’ being bad, it does pick up on the whole context of the sentence.” 

Interestingly, Rai says a lot of negativity came in response not so much to the content of the announcement itself, but in response to other users. “Looking at the comments, a lot of the more negative comments were spam, or trolling and trying to get a rise out of people. The majority of them were quite neutral, just stating a point, or what was happening.” 

Sometimes a negative comment would then provoke dozens of other negative comments addressed to the original comments in response. 

Rai’s research looked at a few other streams in detail, relating to specific events. She also addressed announcements around the election move, mandatory masking, going back into level three lockdown in Auckland, and then coming out of it.

As political events, Rai also analysed and averaged out the sentiment that was directed towards both Labour and National as parties, and towards Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins as leader. “Using the comments from the 1pm updates I extracted the compound score for every sentence that mentioned Labour, National, Judith, Jacinda and then took an average for each of them for each of the days,” said Rai.

In general terms, the sentiment still came out largely positive for all.

That data was also averaged out as a head to head on sentiment. While both leaders generally saw overall positive responses, on most days Labour and Ardern had more favourable sentiment than National and Collins. The one exception was August 17, the day on which the election was delayed.

So what is the fundamental usefulness of this analysis? Rai says part of it was about figuring out how New Zealanders felt about the return to Covid-19 restrictions, particularly after seeing a lot of negativity towards the country in the social threads on international news platforms. 

“I was reading the comments on international news articles, and it was quite interesting – there were a lot of Americans being quite negative towards New Zealand, but often making stuff up, which I found quite interesting. I wanted to see what the New Zealand comments were like, and seeing if maybe there was a difference in sentiment over this lockdown, as different things happened.” 

And for Rai, there was also the motivation of trying to gauge what regular people were thinking, at a time when conversations about Covid-19 in the media were being dominated by a range of loud voices with large platforms. It’s one of the big strengths of social media comment analysis, because it captures the views of those watching along to major events at home.

Image: Getty
Image: Getty

OPINIONSocietySeptember 7, 2020

When the great New Zealand immigration tap suddenly went dry

Image: Getty
Image: Getty

Covid-19 brought to an abrupt end to an extraordinary period of migration-fuelled population growth for New Zealand. Did we fully understand what was happening – and what comes next, asks Paul Spoonley.


See also
Duncan Grieve: The ‘staggering’ potential of New Zealand’s returning diaspora
Toni Truslove: Returning New Zealanders deserve a softer landing – and a warmer welcome 
Alex Braae: Returning New Zealanders will profoundly change this country. But how? 


In March 2020, the immigration tap was all but turned off as New Zealand, and many other countries, closed their borders. But few countries have experienced quite the immigration arrival and net gain story that New Zealand has over the last two decades.

At this point, the drop in arrivals, apart from returning New Zealanders, is of such a magnitude it raises some fundamental questions: when will international mobility, both temporary and permanent migration, restart? And what will – or should – the new normal look like?

How did we get here?

There have been three very distinct periods of population growth and migration since 2000.

Lianne Dalziel, as minister of immigration, oversaw a significant period of immigration policy reform in the early 2000s, after the rather disastrous 1990s. What we gave points for, and what sort of work an immigrant could do after arrival, were not aligned through the prior decade. The politicisation of Asian immigration in the 1996 election did not help.

After 2000 the numbers grew but were then curtailed by the global financial crisis, when the numbers departing New Zealand increased significantly. From 2000 to 2008, the population grew by 407,200 with net migration gains contributing 45.5% to this growth.

Then the GFC years happened. Between 2008 and 2013, population growth was modest (+191,200) and net migration made up less than 5% of this growth. (Remember, there were years in this period when the net loss was nearly 16,000 per year.) But this was then followed by another period of major population growth (480,000, from 2014 to 2019) and net migration gains now made up 65% of population growth.

Fewer babies but many more immigrants

As fertility rates continued to decline, and reached sub-replacement levels in 2017, New Zealand was more than making up for it with migration numbers. The country was adding more than 60,000 people each year as a result of immigration.

The numbers did dip in 2019 but the latest figures for the year to June 2020 are quite staggering. There were 153,900 arrivals (up 8.7%), 74,500 departures (down 16.6%) with a net gain of 79,400 – and that included four months of lockdown migration rates.

The monthly arrivals for June are down 86.8% compared to June a year earlier, while departures are down 87.6%. And we still managed an all time high for the 12 months.

Our annual population growth since 2013 has been high (1.9-2.1%) and the key driver was now immigration, not natural increase. New Zealand stood out in terms of the relative size of these migration flows. Last year, New Zealand had 11.4 migrants (net) per 1000 people. Australia’s rate was 6.2, the US was 3.8 and the UK 2.4.

But there is more

This story is missing one other key ingredient : the size and role of temporary migration.

The MBIE migration data website provides a fascinating picture of the size of the temporary work and study population in New Zealand. Just before the first lockdown at the end of February, the site was showing 220,887 here on temporary work visas with another 82,857 on a study visa (remembering that these students can work up to 20 hours per week on these visas). Even by the end of July, the total number in both categories had only dropped by 23,828.

This might not be the full story. In May 2020, a statement from the then minister of immigration, Iain Lees-Galloway, suggested that there were 350,000 temporary visa holders which included a big chunk of visitors and the skilled migrant resident visa holders.

To say that these numbers are significant is an understatement.

What next?

The government has extended the current stay for the temporary worker and student visa populations under the Covid-19 Public Health response Act and with changes to the Employer Assisted Work Visa. Essentially, the visas have been extended to September 25. (Thai chefs and Japanese interpreters get their own special category of work visas provisions.) This is essentially a hold and wait approach.

In the meantime, migrant arrivals are now dominated by diaspora returnees – New Zealanders are cutting short their OE and returning home in numbers. Over the last year, 45,481 New Zealanders arrived in the country, and the net gain is 16,945. This is in sharp contrast to the major net losses during the GFC and much smaller losses from 2013 through to 2019. Over half of these returnees are coming from Australia.

The Stats NZ figures divide these returning New Zealanders in terms of whether they intend to stay or not. We will see. Covid-19 keeps changing the rules. A key influencer will be a combination of managing, or not, the virus, whether there are jobs and where is it easiest to get support from the state or family/friends. Australia is not a welcoming place for New Zealanders, as the pandemic has underscored.

One thing is certain: population growth over the next year or two will slow dramatically as migration slows. The saving grace will be returning New Zealanders but the numbers involved are still far from clear. They are exempt from meeting the labour market thresholds and the requirement to have a job offer of non-New Zealand citizen arrivals.

There is considerable pressure to open the borders – for short term workers, students or tourists, and for permanent migrants. But when? That depends on the management of Covid-19 within countries, along with a willingness to accept the risks that international arrivals bring, and international agreements about the protocols required of countries, carriers and travellers. The airline industry is suggesting that it might be 2024 before numbers are back to anything like the levels of recent years.

Demographic disruption

The dial has literally gone back to zero in terms of immigration, in sharp contrast to the previous year when the overall numbers and net gain were New Zealand’s highest ever. What is unclear is what the country’s immigration management system or migrant flows will look like as we emerge from a pandemic. Will there be a major reset or will the old normal return?

There is also the demographic future to consider. The fertility rate is in ongoing decline, aided by the delayed fertility that will result from the uncertainty associated with Covid-19. Ageing will mean that almost a quarter of all New Zealanders will be over 65 years of age by the 2030s. And we are seeing population stagnation – and decline – in many regions.

An inverted population pyramid and a smaller prime working age population are going to provide us with significant challenges. Immigration is one of the options to address these major demographic shifts. It will be interesting to see whether our politicians and policy communities see it this way and construct an appropriate immigration model for a future New Zealand.