It’s five months to election day and yet another poll has Te Pāti Māori in the kingmaker position.

Newshub’s Reid Research poll has Labour just ahead on 35.9%, down 2.1 points. National is just behind on 35.3%, down 1.3%.

The minor parties are holding fairly steady, with Act on 10.8% and the Greens on 8.1%. Te Pāti Māori has bounded up 1.7 points to 3.5%. That’s not enough to get into parliament unless they hold onto an electorate seat, in which case they would get five MPs.

What these numbers show is that once again, no major party, even when coupled with their typical partner, would be able to form a government. Labour and the Greens would get 56 seats, while National and Act would get 59 seats. That means Te Pāti Māori sits in the prime position, and after last week, when National ruled out working with them, it would appear they’d fall in with Labour and the Greens and be able to form a government.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Chris Hipkins is up 3.8 points to a solid 23.4%. National’s Christopher Luxon has dropped by 2.4% to 16.4% – that’s even lower than Judith Collins’ final ranking in the same poll before election day 2020. Jacinda Ardern is still registering on the poll despite quitting politics, on 8.5%, while David Seymour was seen as the preferred PM by 7.5% of those surveyed.

All the details and analysis from Newshub’s Jenna Lynch, here