New Zealanders have been told there’s no risk of a tsunami following the major 7.1 magnitude earthquake that’s struck the Kermadec Islands.

The quake hit at a depth of just 10km shortly after 2pm today.

But, according to our Civil Defence, New Zealand’s coastline will not be slammed.

“There is no tsunami threat to New Zealand following the M7.0 earthquake in the Southern Kermadec Islands. Remember, if an earthquake is long or strong, get gone,” said a post on Facebook.

Stuart Nash has been warned that he’s on his last strike after yesterday losing his police portfolio over a phone call with the commissioner.

Speaking in Gisborne today, Nash admitted he had “completely stuffed up” and said the prime minister made the right call in stripping him of the police role.

“I own it, made a mistake, and onwards and upwards,” Nash told reporters.

Nash said he had plenty of work across his other portfolios – forestry, economic development and fisheries – and in his own region following Cyclone Gabrielle. “I’ll be working incredibly hard to make sure we get it right for the people of Hawke’s Bay,” he said.

“If I make the same mistake again, the prime minister will have to take further action – but we learn from our errors.”

Later, during an announcement made alongside the PM, Nash added that his behaviour fell well below that expected of a cabinet minister.

“The prime minister’s made it very clear to me if I stuff up like this again then I’m gone. I will work incredibly hard to earn back the trust of the prime minister and the country, and people will judge me on that.”

Today’s planned teacher strikes have kicked off, with as many as 50,000 educators expected to take to the streets.

In Auckland, photos show thousands marching through the city centre, waving placards, flags and banners. That includes Darth Vader, with a photo shared on the Herald’s live blog revealing the fictional villain is on Queen Street holding a placard that reads “even I support the principals”.

Meanwhile, Stuff has spoken to a teacher in Southland that’s revealed he is leaving to Australia for better pay.

The education minister, Jan Tinetti, expressed some disappointment that a resolution with the teachers’ union could not be reached before the strike. But, as a past educator, she added: “This was my life’s work. I’ve stood where they’re standing today, in the past.”

She would not reveal whether she’d requested more money for her portfolio in the upcoming Budget.

The threat of a recession is looming large once again, with Stats NZ reporting that GDP has fallen by 0.6% in the latest quarter.

That’s more of an economic contraction than what was widely predicted by economists. As reported by the Herald’s Liam Dann, ANZ predicted a -0.3% contraction, the same as KiwiBank. ASB went a step further – 0.5%.

Today’s figures follow a 1.7% rise in GDP across the September quarter.

According to Stats NZ, nine of 16 industries experienced a decrease in activity compared with the September quarter, with manufacturing the biggest driver of the decrease – down just shy of 2%.

“A fall in transport equipment, machinery, and equipment manufacturing corresponded to lower investment in plant, machinery, and equipment,” said Stats NZ’s Ruvani Ratnayake. “While reduced output in food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing was reflected in a drop in dairy and meat exports.”

According to Stuff, the new GDP figures mean the recession engineered by the Reserve Bank may have arrived earlier than expected. The central bank predicted last month that GDP had grown 0.7% in the December quarter.

GDP data will be released today. Most economists are picking it will show a contraction with economic growth slowing in the fourth quarter of last year. Another period of that and we’ll be in a technical recession. The next round of GDP data is out in June.

The Herald’s Liam Dann (paywalled) has spoken to ANZ’s Sharon Zollner and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s Christina Leung about how useful GDP data actually is. Leung says GDP data still matters, but with some big caveats. ANZ’s Sharon Zollner agrees and points to the fact that the data is revised.

For the June quarter last year, the GDP number that grabbed headlines was 1.7%. That was then revised to 1.9%. Leung and Zollner acknowledge that GDP is also inadequate in that it doesn’t count work done in the home or on a voluntary basis. Zollner says GDP data is particularly problematic at times of volatility and doesn’t take into account artificially created economic strength via stimulus or spending to repair damage after a disaster.

Want to read The Bulletin in full? Click here to subscribe and join over 36,000 New Zealanders who start each weekday with the biggest stories in politics, business, media and culture.  

Stuart Nash has gone as police minister after admitting he rung up his “mate” – the police commissioner – to express disappointment over a court ruling.

You can read more about how yesterday played out and who might step into the ministerial void in today’s Bulletin.

But more details about the court case at the centre of the Nash saga have come to light today. According to Stuff, it was a a June 2021 ruling that found a Southland man sentenced to four months of community detention after being found with a banned assault rifle, a shotgun, and illegal ammunition.

Prior to his resignation, Nash remained defiant and doubled down on his opinion that the sentence was insufficient.

But legal experts told Stuff that home detention was a perfectly adequate sentence. “Home detention is an alternative to imprisonment, it’s a very stern, restrictive sentence, it’s regarded by the courts as such, and it’s well within the judge’s remit to impose a sentence like that for that type of offending,” Elizabeth Hall, co-chair of the Defence Lawyers Association, said.

Meanwhile, police commissioner Andrew Coster has revealed – in a statement – that he believed the phone call from Nash was simply the minister “venting” and he did not take any action. It’s not yet known whether or not Coster raised the alarm with then-prime minister Jacinda Ardern.