Just this morning, Christopher Luxon announced he would work with NZ First to form a government after the election and would make the call to Winston Peters on election night if he had to. He later revealed to reporters he wasn’t sure if he even had Peters’ phone number.

According to tonight’s Newshub Reid Research poll, he will need to find it. NZ First is above the threshold on 5.2%. National are on 39.1%, down 1.8, while Act have fallen to 8.8%.

Based on this polling, National and Act would only gain 60 seats. NZ First’s polling would give them six seats in parliament and with 61 needed to govern, National and Act would require the support of NZ First.

Labour are at 26.5%, down 0.3 points on the last Newshub Reid Research poll. The Greens are up 1.9% on 14.2% while The Opportunities Party is nipping at the heels of Te Pāti Māori on 1.9%, with TPM on 2.2%. Based on tonight’s polling, the left bloc would have 54 seats.

It’s the first major poll to take account of the full wash-up after the TVNZ leaders’ debate last Tuesday night.  Overseas and telephone dictation voting begins on September 27, while advance voting begins on October 2.

I’m about to hit the road and head off to a candidates’ meeting in the Wairarapa electorate. So for now, I’m clocking off. Here are some of today’s top reads.

• What lies behind Luxon’s change of heart on NZ First? Toby Manhire explains.
• National-Act-NZ First government would be “rightwing circus”, says Chris Hipkins.
• Labour and National bicker over climate policy as Hipkins releases manifesto.
• The tertiary education policies in two minutes.

And remember, it’s poll day! Newshub’s poll will be released at 6pm and we’ll have it for you soon after as well.

Christopher Luxon has told reporters on the campaign trail in Matamata that he could manage a multi-party coalition with both Act and New Zealand First, if needed.

In a social media video this morning, Luxon finally revealed that he was open to working with Winston Peters if the votes fell that way on October 14. His preference remained for a two-party deal with just Act.

Speaking to reporters, Luxon said he had the leadership experience to work with both Peters and David Seymour, though admitted he did not know the New Zealand First leader very well.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has said on several occasions that Seymour and Peters would “run rings” around Luxon. He’s also taken to calling the trio of parties a “coalition of chaos” – the same line that Luxon has used to refer to a possible Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori government.

Meanwhile, according to RNZ, Luxon would not speculate on possible ministerial portfolios should he be in a position to form a government, saying that he would wait until after the election.

At his press conference to launch Labour’s climate manifesto in New Plymouth today, Chris Hipkins was quick to offer his thoughts on Christopher Luxon finally admitting National would work with New Zealand First to form the next government if it needed to.

“I want to for once in my life agree with David Seymour that that would be a rightwing circus,” Hipkins offered, not waiting for the media questions on the subject that would inevitably follow his announcement. “New Zealanders deserve stability in government. They would get that under a government that I lead.”

He reiterated his earlier commitment that Labour would not work with NZ First. “I made a principled decision to rule out working with NZ First because I don’t believe the platform they’re campaigning on is compatible with my values or the values of the New Zealand Labour Party.”

A National-Act-NZ First coalition would be “a recipe for instability”, he said, and would be bad for the economy and the country overall.

Chris Hipkins has released Labour’s “climate manifesto”, which brings together a range of existing policies plus adds a handful of new ones. These include a plan for a “minister for just transitions” to oversee New Zealand’s transition to a low-emissions economy, and to a plan to invest an additional $300 million into the green investment fund.

“New Zealand faces a stark choice this election,” said Hipkins in a statement.  “Vote for Labour to continue to confront the climate emergency with eyes wide open or bury your head in the sand alongside Christopher Luxon.”

Hipkins announced the policy in New Plymouth, where he’s been visiting housing providers and unpacking solar panels at clean energy tech centre Ara Ake.

“New Zealand has come too far to turn back but that’s what would happen with National at the helm,” said Hipkins in the statement. “National voted against recognising a climate emergency, they want to push action on methane back to next decade and restart offshore oil and gas exploration. And they’ve not announced a single new policy that reduces emissions.”

In response, National accused Labour of “spreading misinformation”. In a statement, campaign chair Chris Bishop said National had “announced a series of comprehensive climate change policies that will reduce emissions and grow our economy”, including plans to double the supply of renewable energy and increase the number of EV chargers around the country.

Asked to respond to National’s claims during the press conference that followed the manifesto’s release, Hipkins said, “next thing you know Christopher Luxon will be touting the fact he’s doing recycling to combat climate change” – a reference to Luxon’s comment during the first leaders’ debate when asked what he was personally doing to tackle the climate crisis. Hipkins also referenced recycling in his answer.

The Greens, meanwhile, welcomed the manifesto’s release, but said more needed to be done. “As far as we can tell, Labour’s plan is largely the existing work programme, and we know we need to do more in order to meet our emissions targets and prevent things from getting worse,” said Greens co-leader James Shaw. “The bold action we need will only happen with Green ministers at the decision making table pushing for action in every area.”

Winston Peters has repeated his claim that Bill English said he was about to be rolled as National leader during negotiations after the 2017 election.

According to the New Zealand First leader, English said during post-election negotiations that he was about to lose his position as leader of National. It’s part of the reason, claimed Peters, that he decided to go with Labour. Ultimately, English resigned as National leader the following year.

Peters has made the claims before but said them recently during the Newshub multi-party debate. “You don’t understand how critical it was because I was talking to a man who in his first conversation with me says they are about to roll me,” Peters said during the debate.

He refloated the claims today during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report, saying Bill English had told him, “[Judith] says she’s got the numbers, but she hasn’t.”

Speaking to Newsroom last week, English denied ever making such remarks to Peters. “It’s a ridiculous claim… a fabrication.”

We’ve been waiting weeks months for a captain’s call from Christopher Luxon on whether or not he’d work with Winston Peters – and that finally came today.

As I detailed this morning, Luxon, in a video shared to social media, finally admitted he would work with Peters if necessary after October 14. As predicted by Newsroom’s Jo Moir last week, it’s hardly a surprise. But as Toby Manhire for The Spinoff wrote today, it’s left Luxon looking “slow and expedient”.

Manhire said: “Luxon missed the opportunity to look decisive and leaderly… His strategic error has pumped fresh air into his opponents’ sagging sails, eviscerated the ‘coalition of chaos’ epithet for ever, and, in the week the first votes in election 2023 are cast, propelled him to front pages and bulletin leads in the arms of Winston Peters. Two months ago, Luxon was warning of the ‘inherently, incredibly unstable’ prospect of a ‘three-headed monster’ on the other side. Today he has one of his own.”

It’s a similar view to that laid out by Mike Hosking in his daily column today. Luxon should have ruled out Peters on “day one”, the Newstalk ZB breakfast host wrote. “What National want at this stage of the campaign is ongoing momentum, they want to be controlling the narrative. By failing to deal with Peters early, they have strategically failed,” he added.

Welcome back to another fun-filled week on the election campaign. I’m coming to you from the mighty Palmerston North for the next few days (well, currently I’m in Levin, famously New Zealand’s best town) and will bring you some sporadic coverage from around the area.

Here’s where our political leaders are today.

• Labour leader Chris Hipkins is in New Plymouth today. He’s visiting a couple of housing providers this morning, before helping to unpack solar panels and indulging in a sausage sizzle, because why not. Later, he’ll visit the Len Lye Art Gallery and front for media.
• National’s Christopher Luxon is in Waikato today. He’ll be in Cambridge and Matamata this morning, then speak to media and head up the road to Huntly.

Newshub’s next poll will be revealed at 6pm tonight, teased by political editor Jenna Lynch as one that shows the face of the election is “changing in more ways than one”.

Is that a reference to New Zealand First, especially given National’s decision to commit to working with them (if needed) this morning? Or has another party else sprung forward in the numbers? We’ll all be glued to the telly tonight to find out.

Andrea Vance has been on a tear of late, publishing a series of fired up columns about the dire state of political discourse as we head towards the election. This week’s Sunday Star-Times column (paywalled) is on the “stonking great elephant in the room” that none of the party leaders want to talk about: what’s gone wrong with our drinking water.

Prompted by the cryptosporidium outbreak which has so far made 30 Queenstown residents seriously ill and forced a citywide boil water notice, Vance asks why Luxon and Hipkins don’t want to talk about the fact that water systems across much of the country are teetering on the edge of collapse. “For almost all the last parliamentary term, Three Waters dominated political debate,” she writes. “Opposition to Labour’s reforms was the foundation of National and Act’s resurgence.” Now, she says, none of the parties seem much interested in water reform, despite the disaster unfolding in Queenstown.

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After months of speculation and countless questions from journalists, Christopher Luxon has confirmed he would work with Winston Peters – if required to.

In a video posted to social media, Luxon made it clear that his preference was for “strong and stable” two-party coalition between National and Act. “I believe that government would be in the best interests of New Zealanders at this very uncertain time,” he said.

“However, if New Zealand First is returned to parliament, and I need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour and the coalition of chaos out, I will make that call. Frankly, I think Chris Hipkins will ultimately do exactly the same thing.”

“We all remember 2017. New Zealand First hasn’t gone with National in 27 years – and could choose Labour again. But that decision is ultimately up to you,” Luxon said.

“At the end of the day, elections are about choices. So, if you want to change the government, then I’m asking you to vote for change and choose a better New Zealand.”

On Newstalk ZB, Luxon said this election would go down to the wire. He wouldn’t rule out making Winston Peters deputy prime minister in a potential coalition, instead reiterating that Nicola Willis, National’s deputy, would be the finance minister.

Luxon also confirmed he had talked to Act’s David Seymour who was willing to work with the two parties if absolutely necessary.

“New Zealand needs a government that takes the country in a better direction,” Seymour said in a statement. “In the end, it comes down to a simple question for voters – ‘Who do you trust?’” On Newstalk ZB, he backed Luxon’s call but also labelled Peters “The least trustworthy person in new Zealand politics”.

Luxon has faced months of questions around his potential coalition partners and was up to this point unwilling to confirm his position on New Zealand First. Instead, he would call the situation a hypothetical and indicate he wasn’t willing to comment on post-election arrangements (though National had already ruled out Te Pāti Māori).

Earlier, on Newstalk ZB’s Early Edition, Willis echoed the new National Party messaging. “Realistically, if New Zealand First is to return to parliament and we need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour out, to keep the coalition of chaos of Te Pāti Māori and the Greens out,” she told the programme.

Peters told RNZ that it was “extraordinary” for the media to be discussing this issue so consistently as it was “the voters of this country… [that] will decide this issue”.

He had not had any contact with Luxon to discuss this issue in advance of today, Peters said. As for a possible Labour coalition, Peters once again said he would not work with them again as he opted to in 2017. Chris Hipkins has also made it clear he would not work with New Zealand First, labelling Peters “chaos” during the recent 1News leaders’ debate.