Cost of living vs the overhang

An Ipsos survey taken during the gang controversy finds the cost of living still dominates voters’ concerns, but the final weekend was consumed by one topic: the vote-splitting campaign and the prospect of a National overhang, Henry Oliver writes in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

A new Ipsos Issues Monitor survey of 1,008 people, taken between 19 and 27 October (when the trading of gang accusations dominated headlines) found no increase in the number who name crime and law and order among their three biggest concerns. It fell one point to 14%, The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire reports this morning.

Cost of living remains at first on 64%, health second on 45%, and fuel has jumped from seventh to third on 31%, up from 17% in September. On law and order, National leads Labour by a single point, 29% to 28%. Ratings of the government's performance are unchanged since September, at an average of 4.1 out of 10.

RNZ’s Russell Palmer reports that Labour leads as “party most capable of managing issue” on all of the top five concerns.

But the overhang won the weekend

As all the parties were out meeting voters and supporters, vote-splitting consumed the attention of the campaign’s final weekend. The Post’s Henry Cooke reports that of roughly 50 door-knocks The Post observed across Auckland over the weekend, not one voter raised it. But at both of Christopher Luxon’s press conferences, it was the main topic.

National has now lodged a complaint with the Electoral Commission about businessman Harry Mowbray’s Split Your Vote campaign, 1News reports. A party spokesperson called it a “deliberate attempt” to confuse voters and said it “did not comply with the election rules everyone has to operate under.” The commission confirmed it was investigating whether the advertising had been properly authorised, and Mowbray’s website, splityourvote.co.nz, has since been taken offline.

Mowbray told RNZ he had made the "assumption" that National was behind the complaint. "I didn't realise having the website was going to get classified as a promotion, because it's in my name."

The complication for National is that its own coalition partners signed off on similar material. Act leader David Seymour confirmed his party gave permission for a Reality Check Radio ad published in the Herald supporting vote splitting: “We don't necessarily have a strong view on the ad, but they asked us permission and we said okay.” A NZ First spokesperson said the party approved a separate Reality Check Radio ad, adding: “We welcome any third party who wants to promote the message that a party vote for New Zealand First is essential for a centre-right government returning.”

The Don Brash contradiction

The Herald’s Adam Pearse reports that Don Brash, who has taken out ads in support of the campaign, conceded he was being “slightly inconsistent” and “illogical” – his ads carried a personal message urging Epsom and Tāmaki voters to back Act’s David Seymour and James Christmas, which he said he likely wouldn't have published without Act demanding it. But he rejected the confusion charge: “Our voters are not that dim.” He accused National of “denigrating the intelligence of right-side voters” and challenged Luxon to a debate. Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith answered for him: “Don had his time,” with Willis adding the kicker: ““He had a run being the Act leader and it didn’t go so well for him.”

Cooke notes one analysis suggests National would likely win nine more electorates than Labour even on an identical party vote, given how Labour's support is concentrated. On current polling, National would need to lose 11 or 12 seats to avoid an overhang. The consequences are personal. Willis is list-only. Goldsmith sits fifth on the list. Cooke notes both would likely be out, with new candidate Jess Rowe in.

The paths to power

The Herald’s Jamie Ensor sets out what the numbers could mean for next weekend (and next term). The most recent polls have Labour and National within a point or two, the Greens around 15%, ACT and NZ First near 10%, and Opportunity hovering just above 5% – putting it in the kingmaker seat. It has said it will speak to the party with the most seats first, and is open to a formal coalition, confidence and supply, or sitting on the crossbenches.

For Labour, Opportunity entering Parliament currently looks like one of its better paths. Labour and the Greens alone are unlikely to reach a majority, and even a three-party bloc with Te Pāti Māori – probably four MPs – isn't reflected in the polling.

Ensor notes Labour may prefer having Opportunity inside the tent regardless, as leverage in negotiations and a safety net mid-term. And while Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity, “there are few who believe the National leader wouldn't cave and pick up the phone if it was his only path to returning to the Beehive.”

On the other hand, the coalition’s chances improve if Opportunity falls just short of 5%. Its seats would be redistributed among parties that clear the threshold – and with National, ACT and NZ First collectively polling higher than the left bloc in many surveys, that could push the right into a majority.