A view from the Philippines on heightened disputes in the South China Sea and risks of the country getting caught up in a great powers battle.

Perched precariously, cinematically, on shallow ground in the South China Sea – or West Philippine Sea – is the second world war ship BRP Sierra Madre. It was grounded in 1999 on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratleys, where it remains to this day: a rusting military outpost, giving form to the Philippines’ claim to this part of one of the most contested and sensitive waterways in the world.

Attempts to resupply and rotate personnel have recently faced angry pushback from China, which refuses to accept the 2016 arbitration tribunal ruling in the Hague that backed most of the Philippines’ claims in this part of the South China Sea. Chinese coastguard officers have targeted resupply crafts with water cannons, machetes and axes. In one attack, a Filipino sailor lost his thumb. 

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, recently warned that the killing of any Filipino in “a wilful act” by a foreign power in the South China Sea would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war” under the Mutual Defence Treaty with the US. In a worst case scenario, that could see the US and China engaged in conflict. 

Marcos Jr’s fresh embrace of the US and toughening stance on China has played a role in increasing tensions, said John Nery, a columnist and editorial consultant at Rappler, the acclaimed Philippines news site which made international headlines when Marcos’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, sought to shut it down. 

“The previous government essentially saw itself as an ally or a dependency of China,” said Nery, speaking to the Spinoff for a special episode of the politics podcast Gone By Lunchtime on the sidelines of the East-West media conference in Manila, where he was honoured as a “journalist of courage and impact”. 

“In 2016, we won a historic arbitral award, that essentially threw out China’s very ambitious claims to most of the South China Sea, including that part which we call the West Philippine Sea. But under the [Duterte] government, we did not push that award … They didn’t want to ruffle any feathers,” he explained. “In their reading, China was too important a regional player for us to push our claims too strongly. Unfortunately, that meant that over six years from 2016 to 2022, because we weren’t assertive with an award that we’d already received, our position weakened. We were not able to build enough resources in our naval or maritime or coastguard resources. And then we have a new government, which I must be completely candid, surprised me, I thought that they would continue the pro China policy … they stopped the so-called pivot to China. And I think it’s because of this, that we’re seeing more assertive actions from China. They are, I think, testing our resolve.”

The danger for the Philippines, via its interests in the South China Sea – territories so disputed that one pocket of the water is claimed by as many as seven nations – is getting caught up in a great powers conflict. 

“I think not enough of us in the Philippines have thought through our close relationship with the Americans,” said Nery. “We shouldn’t choose a particular path, whether it’s led by the Marcos family or not, simply between China and the United States. We need to define our own interests. I happen to think that our own interests are best served with the Western alliance, but it doesn’t mean that we follow them blindly. Or they define the terms of the relationship we need to define for ourselves, the terms of our relationship.”

As for what happens next in the West Philippine Sea, things had ratcheted up, but “we’ll have great difficulty going back down”, said Nery. “It’s very difficult to find a way to stop, to de-escalate. I think that China is determined to test our resolve. So they will keep doing things short of an armed encounter … I think it will be a very tense next few months. I don’t know what the off-ramp is.”

Toby Manhire traveled to the East-West Conference in Manila with the support of the Asia NZ Foundation.